The Ian effect
My friend who lived near me in Cortez calls it the “Cortez Effect.” The legend is that the Native Americans who inhabited the Cortez peninsula put a curse on the storms so they wouldn’t come ashore in their homeland, keeping their burial grounds protected. She and I lived through many storms and almost-storms during the more than 20 years we both lived in Cortez, and we always seemed to dodge the bullet. Well, this time we dodged the biggest bullet of all, and we should all be grateful.
The other question is now that we’re all safe and comfortable, we can start to think about the economic impact of one of the most expensive storms to ever hit Florida. The economists are already addressing this and indicate that Ian will likely negatively affect the economic growth of the country through this year. Typically, when the rebuilding and recovery starts, the economic benefits will be spread out over the next few years. Unfortunately, because of the shortage of construction workers and materials, Florida’s economic comeback could take some time.
The economists’ consensus is that natural disasters have a relatively modest economic impact, especially short term once businesses start to rebuild and reopen. As far as real estate values, Florida’s worst hit regions were also the fastest growing in the state and indeed the country and won’t be permanently damaged. The unemployment rate in both Tampa and Fort Myers were 2.7% in August, lower than the national rate. Both of these regions have seen a rapid influx of new residents during the pandemic. In addition, Florida’s economic growth has outpaced the country’s every quarter since the beginning of 2021.
Long-term Florida residents are used to major storms, and they and the state have prepared for them. In May the state set aside $2 billion to help insurance companies handle claims. That said, you can be sure the fallout for insurance companies will be big. Underfunded companies may go out of business, homeowner’s policies will be dropped, and rates will go up. This is just what we don’t need at a time when attracting new insurance companies to the state has been a challenge. As always, my recommendation is if you have a good homeowner’s policy and you don’t get dropped, live with the possible premium increase and be happy, especially for the next few years.
Finally, the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics say that the earnings of people affected by hurricanes outpaced other workers who weren’t affected within three years of the storm. As previously stated, this is all because of workers needed to help rebuild and get the economy rolling again.
There will be pain at the beginning a lot of it – just look at those awful pictures from our neighbors not too far south and try and imagine yourself in that situation. Help is needed, mostly donations – especially to the Red Cross – but anything you and your family can do to ease their pain even a little would certainly be appreciated.
I don’t hold a lot of belief in legends, and, as another friend pointed out, maybe the indigenous Native Americans actually studied weather patterns over a period of decades and never really cast spells. But legend or not, we in Cortez and on Anna Maria Island have been extraordinarily lucky, and we shouldn’t forget that eventually, luck runs out. Let’s remember that in 1921 the Cortez fishing village was all but destroyed by a major hurricane.
This is October, the month of Halloween, so let’s hope the Native Americans are still casting their magic spells if indeed that’s the reason. I for one want to believe whatever keeps those storms away, magic spells or the study of weather science. I’ll accept either one as long as it works.
