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Tag: real estate sales

Castles in the Sand

Real estate markets upturned

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

The old rules governing a buyer’s and a seller’s market have been seriously adjusted in the time of COVID-19. Areas of the country where they never dreamed of running out of inventory and integrating buyers from major cities are still trying to figure it out while at the same time welcoming their good luck.

Realtor.com, after interviewing over 50 real estate agents in specific markets, has come up with the 10 top buying and selling markets nationwide. This analysis reflected closed sales for upper-end homes at $1 million or over.

A buyer’s market is something that we’re not remotely in right now in the Tampa Bay area, but since you never know when markets will turn, let’s establish some guidelines. The definition of a buyer’s market simply is one with more supply than demand. Santa Barbara County, California was at the top of the buyer’s market list with Santa Cruz County, California coming in at number 10. Florida had two counties on the list, Pinellas at number two and Collier at number four. Remember we’re talking about sales at $1 million or over.

A seller’s market is, of course, the opposite of a buyer’s market, defined as a market that has more demand than supply, with low levels of inventory and appreciating sales prices. Fairfax County, Virginia is at the top of the seller’s market analysis with Suffolk County, New York at the bottom. Florida has two counties on the top 10 list, Hillsborough County (Tampa) at number six and Broward County (Ft. Lauderdale) at number seven. Seller’s markets in this COVID cycle are typically suburban areas close to big employment centers that offer larger homes, property with office space and new construction.

Manatee County is certainly in a seller’s market, so potential buyers need to be cautious not to get in a bidding war and consider making an offer with an escalation addendum. Also eliminating all home sale contingencies like a mortgage will certainly put you in an advantageous position.

Now it’s time to review the October Manatee County sales statistics, reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, to determine if October’s numbers are as good as September’s were.

Single-family sales numbers compared to October of last year are as follows: Closed sales, up 48.4%; median sale price, $360,000, up 10.4%; average sale price, $481,349, up 20.7%; median time to contract, 18 days, down 58.1%; month’s supply of available properties, 1.8 months, down 45.5%; pending inventory, up 44.5% and cash transactions, up 53.6%.

Condo sales numbers compared to October of last year are as follows: Closed sales, up 39%; median sale price, $255,000, up 34.2%; average sale price, $294,595, up 13.2%; median time to contract, 41 days, up 8.9%; month’s supply of available properties, 2.6 months, down 36.6%; pending inventory, up 71.9% and cash transactions, up 10%.

Not only were the October numbers as good as September, they surpassed them in almost every area. The market is indeed soaring in both Manatee and Sarasota counties, and where this merry-go-round stops, I don’t think anyone knows, certainly not me.

The old adage, “All real estate is local,” has been a little upended this year. However, the principals are the same and we’ll eventually fall back into a normal market. Have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.

Castles in the Sand

Ghosts, goblins and COVID

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Halloween is in a couple of days, the first holiday since COVID struck that wearing a mask is not only encouraged, but welcome. Because of our beautiful fall weather, all of the little ghosts and goblins will be able to walk up and down the streets looking for treats, hopefully safely masked. Undoubtedly the scariest thing this Halloween won’t be the Mummy or Dracula but the thing we can’t see – COVID droplets.

The second most scary thing is what our financial situation will be after this is all behind us. As far as the real estate market, it is proving to be very durable with appreciation expanding and houses being eaten up as soon as they hit the market. Buyers are so ready to fight their way into homeownership that a large percentage aren’t even leaving their homes to do so.

According to realtor.com, 24% of 1,300 consumers surveyed said they would be willing to buy without seeing a property in person. This was back in April, so it’s likely that a more up-to-date survey would provide a larger percentage. Another survey dating to 2018 indicates that 20% of potential buyers made an offer on a property without seeing it in person. In a similar survey after COVID, this number has moved up to 45% so far this year, and it’s looking like this is not just a passing trend.

Not all real estate markets are experiencing the same movement. In New York City, which has been the hardest-hit major city in the country, sales in Manhattan were down 46.4% in the third quarter of the year compared to last year per the real estate company Douglas Elliman. In addition, Manhattan currently has more than 20 months’ supply of properties available. San Francisco is experiencing a similar market with properties lingering for months without buyers.

Manatee County continues to be a hot market with several new construction properties on the drawing board. In Cortez, the Hunters Point community is getting close to breaking ground with 86 single-family homes, 47 available boat slips as well as resort and hotel units. Parrish in Manatee County’s northwestern area is exploding with new communities being built on what was previously farmland.

To say the September sales report for Manatee County reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee is good would be grossly understated – it’s great. The only problem is we can’t add new listings fast enough.

Single-family homes closed 31.4% more in September than last September. The median sale price for this year was $350,000, an 11.1% increase over last September, and the average sale price was $478,964, a 25.5% increase. The median time to contract was 23 days, 46.5% less than last year, and the pending inventory has increased 59.5%. The month’s supply of properties is only 1.9 months, a 42.4% drop from last year.

Condos closed 73.5% more properties compared to September of last year. The median sale price was $220,000, up 10.6%, and the average sale price was $300,971, up 23.1% from last September. The median time to contract was 40 days, 44.4% fewer days than last year, and the pending inventory was up 45.8%. The month’s supply of properties was down 23.7% to 2.9 months.

The September update continues the trend of a rise in the number of sales, higher prices and fewer available listings compared to September of last year.

Enjoy Halloween with all of your masked friends and remember, if your house is haunted, it’s just between you and Casper – no one else has to know. Stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

Florida is new home to thousands

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

When I moved to Florida 23 years ago, I honestly thought I was at the end of the world. During my dog’s 11 o’clock walk, the brightness of the stars was so overwhelming, I would ask the dog, “Where have we moved to?” Since he had no opinion, I just needed to move on and get to know this new foreign place with its laid-back culture and clean air.

Now after all of these years, I not only appreciate where I am but love it as well, and apparently many others are also. In September, it was reported by the Miami Herald that approximately 950 people a day are moving into the state of Florida, a startling number. Most are from the Northeast and other congested COVID-19 hotspots around the country, and for many, this is not a second temporary home to escape to; it’s permanent.

Florida is not alone with the influx of new residents – many small cities and towns are being overwhelmed with new, well-heeled residents buying up any and all available properties, pushing up values and depleting inventory. Most of them are looking for wide-open spaces, larger homes and a safe and friendly environment. Even younger people who have been forced to leave big cities because of COVID-19 or job loss are reconsidering a more peaceful lifestyle from the high life they originally moved to the cities for, most of which has been eliminated for the foreseeable future.

Home sales in Manatee County are at an all-time high, as well as in the rest of the country. Nationally home sales rose 2.4% in August from a month earlier, increasing the 24.7% surge in July which was the strongest monthly gain ever recorded going back to 1968, according to the National Association of Realtors. None of this is expected to change soon. The Federal Reserve says it expects to hold rates low for at least three more years. Large numbers of Americans will continue to work from home even after a vaccine is developed, and even if sales volume begins to taper off in late 2020, it’s unlikely to diminish too much, according to economists at Zillow.

The end result of this is a shortage of homes which we’ve been talking about for some time, pushing up competition and increasing housing prices. Even with the historic low mortgage rates, the increase in sale prices is canceling out the purchasing power of buyers trying to keep up. Some buyers and their representatives are offering an escalation clause in their purchase agreements. This protects a buyer’s offer in the event another potential buyer comes in over their offer by automatically adding an agreed-upon percentage over the new offer.

It sure looks like people are still pouring into our state, and why not? The Northeastern cities are having serious financial problems and high unemployment with smaller populations and much higher budgets and taxes. Florida’s unemployment rate in August was 7.4% – incredible progress considering April’s was 13.8%. Now with the state opening up almost completely, that number will likely be lower going forward.

Florida is looking more and more like a utopia every day. Certainly gone is my end of the world view. So, watch out for those out-of-state plates and listen to your canine friends; they get it. Stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

Mortgage interest rates lowest since 1971

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Based on current interest rates, it’s a great time to buy a home, and it’s also a great time to sell a home. At this moment in time, sellers have the upper hand, prices are high, inventory is low and buyers are chomping at the bit to buy while interest rates are historically low.

The mortgage interest rates are so low that as of this writing they’re actually the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac since 1971, coming in at 3.23% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan. On Bankrate.com, I found an average rate of 3.01%. Remember that rates fluctuate daily and also depend on a buyer’s creditworthiness as well as the amount of down payment and points applied.

The drop in interest rates started in March and continued in April after the country was shut down because of the coronavirus. In March, the rate was about 4.2%, a full point higher than is typical now. Now the conversation from the financial talking heads is that the rates may stay low forever or at least for the foreseeable future until the country totally recovers from the financial impact of the virus. Needless to say, lenders are overwhelmed with applications, giving them the leverage to pick and choose.

Refinancing has also been strong, with homeowners attempting to lower their monthly rate during difficult times and/or pull cash out to help with expenses or attack those long overdue home improvements.

The problem is the banks are reserving their best rates for homebuyers – not homeowners who want to refinance. To make that situation even worse, Freddie Mac levied a new fee on lenders for most refinancing to protect them from potential losses; remember the 2008 housing bubble. Refinance rates even make a difference if the borrower just wants a straight refinance to lower their monthly payment or wants to pull cash out, which would typically have a higher rate.

Since mortgage interest rates have a direct effect on real estate sales, let’s take a look at the August sales numbers from the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee website.

First of all, both Manatee and Sarasota counties broke another record for the median (half above and half below) sale price of single-family homes; Manatee at $360,000 and Sarasota at $330,000.

Manatee County single-family homes closed 9% more properties than August of last year. As stated, the median sale price was $360,000, which is up 13.6% from last year, and the average sale price was $480,903, 17.7% up from last year. Median time to contract was 30 days; last August it was 42 days. The month’s supply of available properties was 2.1 months; last year it was 3.3 months.

Condo sales were up 54.2%, the median sale price was $223,000, up 8.8% from last year. The average sale price was $261,548, up 4.1% from last year. Time to contract was 46 days; last year it was 50 days. The month’s supply of available properties was 3.3 months; last year it was 3.6 months.

Great numbers for property owners and sellers, but I’m still worried about the lack of inventory here and across the country. Record low interest rates and a change in lifestyle created by the coronavirus has accelerated the demand for properties. In the meantime, we can all enjoy the real estate wave. Stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

COVID can’t ground soaring real estate market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Strange doesn’t even come close to describing today’s real estate market. You would think that in the middle of a pandemic, everyone would be afraid to leave their home, much less purchase a new one.

Well, I guess the American people are made of stronger stuff than that because the real estate market is not only alive and well, it’s soaring.

According to the S&P/CoreLogic/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, the adjusted-for-inflation real home prices rose 45% from February 2012 through May 2020. Not a bad investment if you purchased a home eight years ago. In fact, it’s a remarkable record considering that the United States is dealing with a once-in-a-century coronavirus pandemic, which created a recession and social upheaval.

Florida Realtors also reports an active and appreciating real estate market in our state. No surprise here that during April and May, Florida Realtors reported higher median prices and more pending inventory but fewer closed sales and fewer new listings compared to the second quarter of last year.

Closed sales of single-family homes statewide were down 19.2% from the second quarter of 2019, and condos down 33.9% for the same period. In a typical real estate market, these numbers are a good look into the future, however, this year is an exception with everything related to the virus shifting from week to week. In spite of this, Florida’s home sales are off by less than 2% from last year’s pace as of mid-August when these numbers came out.

Statewide, median sales prices for single-family homes were up 4.7% compared to the second quarter last year, and condo sales were up 6.2% for the same period. Inventory is down 27% statewide compared to last year and the lack of homes will continue to propel prices upward, according to Florida Realtor.

Next week when the August Manatee County sales statistics come out, we’ll have a better idea about what’s happening close to home. In the meantime, let’s see how Cortez and Anna Maria Island are looking relative to million-dollar property closings and availability during May, June and July. Numbers are from realtor.com.

Cortez had six properties listed between $1.2 million and $1.3 million, two more than last time. The City of Anna Maria had had 57 properties listed; last time there were 73 listed. The properties range from one at $6.3 million, three were over $4 million, seven were over $3 million and 12 were over $2 million; the balance was between $2 million and $1 million. The combined cities of Bradenton Beach and Holmes Beach listed 75 properties for sale; last time there were 69. There were four over $4 million, three over $3 million, 22 over $2 million and the balance between $2 million and $1 million.

Sales in these areas have certainly recovered but are still slightly off. The sales numbers come from the Manatee County Property Appraiser’s website. Cortez did not have any closings over $1 million, the same as last time. The City of Anna Maria had 28 sales over $1 million; last time they had four. Prices ranged from a high of $5.4 million to a low of $1,025,000. There were two sales over $3 million but most of the sales were between $2 million and $1 million. The combined cities of Bradenton Beach and Holmes Beach had 19 sales over $1 million; last time they had five. There was one sale over $4 million and one sale over $3 million; the balance started in the low $2 million to the low $1 million range.

For certain, we are a strong optimistic people as reflected in the growing economy and growing real estate market. Stick with it and stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

To disclose or not to disclose

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Since there are no perfect houses, when it comes time to sell your imperfect home, just how honest do you have to be about its defects?

Basically, you should disclose anything that might affect a buyer’s decision to buy the property or anything that might influence the buyer’s offer. To accomplish this, pretend you’re the buyer of your own home.

If you list your home with a Florida Realtor, they will likely provide you with a Seller’s Property Disclosure form created by the Florida Realtors Association. While a Seller’s Property Disclosure form is not required under Florida law, the state still requires sellers and their Realtors to disclose any significant property defects that may not be easily visible to the buyer.  If this sounds like a conflict, it’s really not. The form just provides the avenue whereby sellers can be reminded to provide the best information to a buyer that will protect them and provide a good faith and accurate disclosure to the buyer.

Some of the items the disclosure form will address are:

  • Structures, systems and appliances being in working and in sound condition, and whether the home contains aluminum wiring,
  • Termites, other wood-destroying organisms and pests relative to current activity, past treatment and damage,
  • Flooding, drainage, mold, or water intrusion issues,
  • Plumbing leaks, septic systems and wells, if applicable, relative to condition and potable water,
  • Roof soundness, leaks, age, repairs you’re aware of and any other roof defects,
  • Pool and hot tub condition and safety features,
  • Any knowledge of sinkholes,
  • Full disclosure of homeowner’s association restrictions and financial records,
  • Lead-based paint and radon gas, if present,
  • Government claims and litigation against the property, zoning violations or nonconforming use of the property.

Don’t put yourself in a position where a buyer can use anything against you down the road. In our area, the most significant areas of litigation pertain to water penetration and flooding. These are easy areas for a buyer to verify, so don’t fib. That said, you are only obligated to disclose what you know even if it’s something the buyer can’t see.

Is there anything that doesn’t have to be disclosed?

You don’t have to disclose the reason you are selling, and neither should your broker. This includes if you totally hate your next-door neighbor as long as the neighbor is not generally considered a nuisance except to you. You don’t have to disclose if someone passed away in the house and you definitely don’t have to disclose that your house is haunted even if you think it is.

So, put your buyer shoes on before you advise the seller or their broker about condition or fill out a disclosure form. Remember, Florida law requires a seller of a home to disclose to the buyer all known facts that materially affect the value of the property that are not readily observable or known by the buyer. Be as straightforward as you can be, and stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

Everyone needs a change – even in paradise

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Are you starting to feel like you’re in prison? Granted it’s a really nice prison and you’re enjoying the views, but since you haven’t left recently, even the beach gets redundant. Welcome to what I’ve started calling “Prison in Paradise.”

Staying home for so many months either because of schooling or job or just plain not being able to travel has made everyone start noticing the things in your home you wanted to change. This has driven the home improvement frenzy we’re experiencing. Home Depot, Lowe’s and other home improvement stores were deemed essential services during the lockdowns in many states and allowed to remain open. In fact, Home Depot has been running an increase of at least 35% of its business from last year since April.

Americans stuck at home without much to do have started painting, building, fixing and decorating, long overdue home improvements. Government stimulus checks and stay-at-home meals have put some extra money in the pockets of many people and they are putting it to good use, especially if they’re thinking about selling.

Curb appeal is an old real estate adage that never loses its importance and this is a good place to start. There are buyers who won’t get out of their car if they see something they don’t like and it can be something very minor like a broken flowerpot or walkways in need of repair. Little things like doorknobs that are loose or worn, peeling paint or rotting wood around doors and windows send the wrong message.

We live on an island. Paint your front door with a bold hue, reminding buyers you live on the coast. Add a colorful piece of furniture to cozy up the entry and add plants or replace the ones that are starting to get tired. Lighting outside is also important, so a few walkway lights highlighting your manicured lawn will start to make a difference going into the winter months when sunset comes early.

Whenever I talk about getting your home ready for sale, I always mention clean windows. It may seem like a logical and little thing, but believe me, if you live on or near the water, clean windows are a constant challenge and one you need to be especially vigilant of when selling.

The other thing I always talk about is removing objects from your home. Clean off countertops in both kitchen and bathrooms. It’s nice to have some family photos, but walls and walls and tables covered with them are only a distraction to potential buyers. Same with any collections you have displayed on shelves or bookcases. The less stuff you have, the larger your living space will appear. Turn the lights on, open the window coverings and illuminate any dark corners.

This sprucing up comes at an opportune time for Anna Maria and the coastal communities of Manatee County. Typically, homeowners who may be thinking about placing their property on the market would be getting ready to work on their punch list before selling. Now, however, many of the jobs are already done and even though the summer market has been really good, we can anticipate that the fall and winter market will be even better.

Think of your home as purchasing a really elegant dress and then adding shabby, worn shoes. Peeling paint, dead plants and broken walkways are the shabby shoes of your home. Keep painting and stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

Real estate sales reaching lofty heights

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

The above-the-fold headline in a national newspaper a couple of weeks ago said this: “Home sales reach lofty heights.” My real estate heart started fluttering even before I read the first sentence, and by the time I was done, I was swooning.

As it turned out, my flutter was well-deserved and somewhat understated. According to the National Associations of Realtors, existing home sales rose 24.7% in July from a month before; just to be clear, that’s one month. The annual increase in sales from July of last year increased 8.7%. The last time sales activity was this high was in December of 2006.

These are spectacular numbers nationally, leading Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) chief economist, to say, “the housing market is actually past the recovery phase and is now in a booming stage.” A strong housing market is always a positive sign for the economy; home purchases lead to increased spending across the board on furniture, appliances, renovations and landscaping.

How is all this possible? We’re still in the middle of a pandemic. Millions of people are out of work, it’s summer and it’s an active hurricane season. The answer in part appears to be that Americans are totally rethinking where and how they live and they are not wasting any time looking for a change in lifestyle. According to a survey by realtor.com, about 40% of home buyers are looking to buy soon and are not waiting for the virus to slow down.

Everyone wants a reboot after being stuck at home for five months watching the walls closing in. Condominium owners want single-family homes and single-family homeowners want larger and more spread out property. City dwellers want the suburbs or country living and everyone wants to change the negative features in their homes that they may have just noticed. This activity is not only affecting the resale market but the new home market, which represents about 10% of the real estate market, is also roaring back.

And speaking of spectacular, Manatee County’s sales numbers for July are right up there with the national numbers.

There was a 26.7% increase in the sale of single-family homes from July of last year to this year. The median (half above, half below) price of single-family homes was $358,963, a 10.5% increase from last year. It should be noted that the national median home price for July was $304,100 – a record high.

The single-family average sale price was $476,011, an increase of 21.7%, with a median time to contract of only 37 days. Pending inventory was up 25.7%, and we’re still suffering from a serious lack of inventory down to only 2.3 months available properties.

Condos closed 16.5% more units in July over last year and the median sales price was $220,000, up 15.2%. The average condo sale price was $270,527 up 24.9% from last year and the median time to contract was 64 days. Pending inventory is up 42% and the month’s supply of available properties is 3.6%.

Another interesting turn is that nationally, first-time buyers accounted for 34% of sales in July per the NAR. Many of these first-time buyers are millennials who are being motivated by the virus to get off the sidelines, start families and adjust their lifestyles. This is a surprise to me but it’s true, a lot of young people are working remotely, still getting paid and for some reason don’t want to let the virus dictate their future. Good for them.

Well, now that my heart’s rhythm is back to normal, I can stop worrying about the real estate market for a while and concentrate on COVID and hurricanes; there is always something. Stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

COVID causes changes in housing market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Lots of people these days are telling themselves, “If this is the one life I have to live, maybe I need to set some priorities.” According to national and local real estate sales statistics, a lot of those priorities involve lifestyle and where to live, both of which are being turned upside down.

When the coronavirus hit in mid-March and everything shut down, it seemed like everyone was heading for the hills to hunker down. If you were lucky enough to own a second home in an area where the infection rate was lower and the amenities better, you were among the lucky. Now with the ability to work and educate remotely, those second homeowners are reconsidering turning their second homes into their first homes, completely reversing their lifestyle.

Second home sales in resort and rural communities have seen a surge in recent months. Buyers are looking for second homes where they can comfortably live long term or forever. This is no surprise to Florida generally and our area in particular, where properties are literally flying off the market. As of this writing per realtor.com, here is a quick unscientific analysis of properties for sale vs. properties already pending.

Manatee County has 4,934 properties listed for sale – 35% of them pending. Anna Maria city has 82 properties listed for sale – 30% of them pending. The combined cities of Holmes Beach and Bradenton Beach have 241 properties listed – 24% of them pending. Cortez has 27 properties listed for sale – 22% of them pending.

These are significant percentages of pending properties which backs up the positive June Manatee County sales statistics. Also, in June, Manatee County had 20% more pending single-family homes compared to last June and pending condos were up for the same period by 17.7%.

Not only has the virus had an effect on the second home market, it is also having an effect on the increase of suburban home sales. In recent years, the suburbs were looked on by young singles and families as a very “uncool” place to live.  Brady Bunch 1950s homes where many millennials and generation X young adults grew up had very little draw to this generation, who gravitated to cities and urban centers.

Well, a lot of that has changed since March, and urban dwellers are re-evaluating what’s really important to them and their children and are perceiving the suburbs as safer, cleaner and overall polished, the exact reason their parents and grandparents moved there in the first place. And it’s not only young employees viewing the suburbs differently, it’s also their employers. Working remotely does not require long and expensive commutes into city centers where commercial real estate costs are exorbitant.

Naturally, the suburbs close to big cities like New York City are benefiting the most; moves from New York City to Connecticut have more than doubled from last year. However, the trend is nationwide – what could be bad about a conference call overlooking the Gulf of Mexico.

The world is shifting on its axis and it only took a few months and a nasty virus to make that happen. Maybe COVID-19 did us all a favor by forcing us to reevaluate our priorities; it wouldn’t be the first time a major world-wide event compelled us to readjust our thinking, and it won’t be the last time. Stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

When the news is good, be happy

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

The news hasn’t been that great recently, but the one bright spot is the country’s housing market. Likewise, Manatee County’s housing market is shining almost as bright as the afternoon westerly sun, so let’s enjoy it while we have it.

According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Associations of Realtors (NAR), “the housing market is hot, red hot.” The NRA reported sales of previously-owned homes rose 20.7% in June over the prior month, the biggest monthly increase on record going back to 1968 – another first during these harrowing times.

In addition to soaring existing home sales, there are rising new home sales and an increasing amount of homebuilder activity. Much of this is being generated by the record low mortgage rates and a flood of mortgage applications. Young families are finally breaking out, looking for more space, taking another look at the advantages of living in the suburbs, and the wealthy are looking for second homes away from the chaos of the cities.

Also, according to the National Association of Realtors, the regions with the most activity were the west and the south, with the northeast having the least amount of activity. The most popular price point with the most increased sales nationally was between $250,000 to $500,000. Although Anna Maria Island’s price points are generally higher, Manatee County’s fits right in there also with strong sales numbers for June, as follows:

Closed sales of single-family homes in June increased 7.2% from June of last year, but the really interesting number is that Manatee County closed 668 single-family homes in June 2020 compared to May 2020 at 445 closings. The median sale price was $325,000 this June compared to $315,000 last June, 3.2% more. The average sale price for June was $419,373 compared to June last year of $397,987, a 5.4% increase.

Condo closings are also up 2.5% from June of last year. The June 2020 closings number is 250 compared to May 2020 of 150, again a tremendous increase. The median sale price was up 7.7% to $214,230 from June of last year and the average sale price was up 1% from June of last year to $238,556.

It appears that Manatee County is substantially gaining ground over both last year and last month, certainly the right direction if we can keep it up. However, the problem that plagues us is the availability of properties, which is down for both single-family and condos. Single-family month’s supply of inventory for June 2020 was only 2.6 months, down 27.8% from June 2019, which was already at a low point. Condos are down to a 3.8 months availability rate, down 7.3% from last year. A six-month’s supply of available homes has always been the optimum number to strive for.

Home sales numbers are a lagging statistic since properties generally go into contract a month or two before closing. Therefore, June’s numbers are probably a reflection of sales in April and May while most states were still locked down. That said, increasing home sales could have an enormous effect on the economy as a whole since the housing market typically accounts for between 15% and 18% of the U.S. economy. Construction of new homes, furnishings and renovations could play a big role in adding jobs and money to the economy.

Will this jump in home sales last? We can only hope the sun continues to shine on our little corner of the world, but for now, just be happy. Stay safe.

Castles in the Sand

Million-dollar surprises

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

The last time I wrote my million-dollar update published on March 18, we had no idea what a challenge the next months would be. I ended this column with the wish that the next three months wouldn’t have too many surprises, and here we are – one startling surprise after another.

A lot has happened since mid-March, and as reported, the April Manatee County sales statistics were down in all areas, but the sales prices were up, reflecting many sales that were under contract prior to mid-March. When the May sales statistics are posted later in the month, we’ll likely see more of the same.

However, based on a survey of more than 300 homebuilders, the sales of newly-built homes went up 21% in May from a year earlier. Economists are saying this survey offers a potential look at the sales activity yet to come around the country after the decline in March and April.

In addition, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported mortgage applications for home purchases at the end of May rose for the seventh straight week, up 17% from last year. The speculation is that buyers who may have been thinking of buying next year are moving up their agenda. Part of this is concern about another surge in the coronavirus and buyers’ desire to move out of states or cities where the most infections were. The fear of being quarantined again is motivating buyers to get out of Dodge now and not wait for the other shoe to drop. Not surprisingly, sales were strongest in Florida, up 59% from a year ago, and down in the northeast and California.

Complicating things are rioting in major cities around the country, driving homeowners to consider relocating to safer regions, and the rise of remote working. The rioting will hopefully stop, but the emergence of remote working is probably here to stay.

Major national companies like Facebook anticipate 50% of the workforce will be working remotely within five to 10 years. Even major banking operations have indicated that although they may retain a presence in major cities, remote working is in the best interest of both them and their employees.

What does this mean to the housing market going forward? At the very least there will be a major change in how workers live and work, or as the Zillow chief executive phrased it, “the great reshuffling.”

Let’s see what the upper end of our real estate market has produced in February, March and April. The closed sales are from the Manatee County Property Appraiser’s office and the available properties are from realtor.com as of this writing.

On the market in Cortez, there are four properties listed between $1,299,000 and $1,300,000, the same as the last analysis. The city of Anna Maria has 73 properties listed over $1 million; the last analysis had 63. There is one listed over $6 million, three listed over $4 million, eight listed over $3 million and the balance between $2 million and $1 million. The combined cities of Holmes Beach and Bradenton Beach have 69 properties listed; the last analysis had 93 listed. They range from one over $7 million to two over $5 million, three over $4 million and four over $3 million. The balance is between $2 million and $1 million.

As you can imagine, sales are way off. Cortez had no sales over $1 million, same as last time. The city of Anna Maria had four, all under $2 million; the last time they had 16. And Holmes Beach and Bradenton Beach had five, also all under $2 million; the last time they had 24.

Remember, real estate sales are always a lagging number and half of what we’re looking at was prior to shutdown and half during shutdown. I’m positive things will look better next time. Stay well.

Castles in the Sand

Home is where the disinfectant is

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

By now you should be getting to know your house really well, its assets and its defects, and it sounds like you’ll have a lot more time to make those assessments. Point is your home is you and your family’s safety net. Right now, the safety net is physical protection within the shelter of your home, but at some point in the future the safety net will change to financial and there’s a lot of worry out there about property values post coronavirus.

Up until March, the U.S. housing market was headed for a hot selling season, but like many Americans, the housing market may have caught the virus as well. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc., is predicting a 60% chance of the U.S. economy going into a recession this year. This will hit the housing market hard despite record-low mortgage rates of 3.29% for a fixed-rate mortgage as of the middle of March. Zandi goes on to say, “housing is being buffeted by two gale forces moving in opposite directions,” referring to low rates and a virus-fueled economic turmoil. “The question is, what’s the end result of all that? In all likelihood, the recession will trump lower rates.”

The National Association of Realtors had anticipated about 5.5 million sales of previously owned homes in 2020, up from 5.3 million a year in 2019. Now, however, they’re expecting a 10% drop in home sales in the next month to start with. Homeowners will be hesitant to put their homes on the market until the crisis is over, fearful they won’t get a good price. But if a recession does develop, others could be forced to sell, changing the inventory dynamic from a severe shortage to more available properties. Meanwhile, buyers have seen some of their down payment funds evaporating as the stock market declines, creating the potential of keeping them out of the market until they see a financial recovery.

According to many housing experts, the economic distress will slow home sales, and prices nationally will likely flatten or fall slightly after years of gains. There could be opportunities for buyers with more inventory, declining prices and low interest rates, nevertheless the economic prediction is the coronavirus could drive home sales down 10% in the short term.

What does all of this mean for us on Florida’s west coast? I’m still bullish on our local real estate market; we can certainly expect some adjustments after we return to a normal market but buyers still want to come to Florida from the northeast and other major metro areas, maybe even more after this is all over.

Here’s an interesting statistic I recently uncovered: In 1998, Florida’s population was approximately 14.9 million, in 2018 it was 21.3 million. In 20 years, Florida grew by over 6 million people, more than the size of many U.S. cities. Based on that, our weather, taxes and general lifestyle advantages, I see no reason to think that our state won’t be at the forefront of the coronavirus recovery.

For now, the main objective is to stay physically healthy; your financial health can be assessed down the road. So, keep the disinfectant handy, spirits up and learn to love your home and family, flaws and all. Good luck.

Castles in the Sand

It’s all about the kitchen

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

You may not want to do a kitchen renovation in August, but August is the perfect time to start planning one. Sitting on the patio with your iPad or on the beach with a home decorating magazine is an easy way to start planning that new kitchen. Add a cool coconut drink and you’ll soon forget that it’s 95 degrees.

Kitchen trends change almost as fast as fashion trends. What’s in now will undoubtedly be out in three years. It’s impossible to keep up and most of us don’t even try, but if you’re one of those who must have the latest, here’s where you should be looking:

In spite of the fact that we’re told white kitchen cabinets are out, according to Houzz, it’s still the most popular color at 43% of remodels. Second place is wood cabinets at 25%, followed by gray at 11%.

The trendy colors are now bold – deep blue, red and, ready for this, black. Now over 30 years ago when my sister-in-law was choosing kitchen cabinets for their new home, she picked black. She was always a trendy gal, but at the time I had never seen black kitchen cabinets before and was definitely taken aback. Little did I know she was decades ahead of her time. Today’s black is designed to provide a quiet soulful balance in the kitchen, combining cabinets, matte black appliances and black backsplashes.

Completely the opposite of black, a color that is also new and trending is mint green. Certainly, in my opinion, mint green is a better choice for beach living if you must give up white. Finally, two-tone cabinets, different color uppers and lowers are so in. I expect they’ll be out soon. Nevertheless it is a nice look. If you can’t bear to give up your white cabinets, you can make them trendy with dark lower cabinets.

As far as countertops, stone is and probably always will be the choice of most homeowners. Granite lost its first-place position a long time ago, replaced by quartz, but the trend now is to use concrete counters and natural stone. Backsplashes are also being invaded by natural stone with edges. I wonder how you keep that clean, with it installed right up to the ceiling?

The most popular cabinet style, according to Houzz, is holding with the ubiquitous shaker cabinets chosen by 57% of homeowners. Open shelving instead of all upper cabinets are also trending. They create a more uncluttered feeling, especially with an interesting backsplash. But if you do have upper cabinets, they must go to the ceiling.

And high tech is all over new kitchens – appliances that talk to you and your iPhone and charging stations are a must just as are hoodless ventilation systems. Thankfully rose color hardware and appliances are gone after their 15 minutes of fame.

So is doing an expensive kitchen renovation worth it in dollars? Maybe or maybe not, depending on what you do. Eighty percent of buyers place a nice kitchen in their list of the top three most important spaces in a home. Nationally, the average cost of a kitchen renovation is $35,000 but you could spend three times that.

Most kitchen renovations do add value to a home but most will also not be fully reimbursed in actual dollars. The benefit of a nice kitchen, however, will be in reduced selling time, which is generally reflected in actual dollar savings. Don’t forget, if you’re renovating before putting your home on the market, minor renovations can make a huge difference in appearance and get you the bigger bang for your buck.

It’s easy to dream about your dream kitchen during a hazy summer afternoon, just don’t let the heat and coconut drink give you delusions of grandeur, especially if you’re thinking black cabinets.

More Castles in the Sand:

Calming waters

The condo dance

The suburbs and the millennials