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Tag: Manatee County real estate

Castles in the Sand

Crashing real estate waves

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

We don’t have a lot of serious wave activity here on the Gulf coast; most of the big rollers are on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially north of Florida. However, if you’re talking real estate wave activity, we certainly have those, but not nearly as erratic as other states are experiencing.

According to the Core-Logic Case-Shiller National Home Price index for the year ending in June, prices rose 18%, down from 19.9% for the prior month. Most economists are saying the housing market has cooled in recent months and nationally, existing home sales have fallen for six straight months through July.

The blame here rests with higher mortgage interest rates, which is adding additional pressure on buyers when they attempt to qualify for mortgage loans. As of this writing, the fixed-rate mortgage average was 5.99%, looking like it will likely go over 6%. This is pushing 3% more than it was a year earlier, accounting for many buyers to be hitting the pause button on home purchases.

Keep in mind that 6% is not a terrible interest rate and should not in and of itself keep buyers from purchasing a home if they can qualify. Nevertheless, sellers are starting to think they may have missed their best opportunity to sell by waiting too long. The reality is that there is a slight downward movement in sale prices and the days of bidding wars and sellers getting over asking price are likely over. This doesn’t mean that sellers are still not making a lot of profit on homes they have owned for even three years, it’s just a little more competitive and adjustments to their marketing plan need to be addressed.

All of this said, Florida so far seems to be inoculated from any serious price reductions. There is a slight downturn in median selling price, but not as much as other areas of the country. Tampa was ranked ninth overall in July based on data received from Florida Atlantic University. The average home selling in Tampa was 58.5% more than the expected price. Fort Myers came in third and Lakeland was seventh. In addition, every city in Florida increased slightly from June to July.

However, Lei Wedge, a professor of finance at the University of South Florida College of Business, said she believes Tampa real estate prices have already peaked. She points out that statistical models often lag behind what is actually happening in the market. Not every financial guru agrees with this, and points to the large influx of buyers from out of state who will prevent prices from dropping as radically as we’re seeing in other parts of the country.

The other potential problem for buyers looking for mortgages in a changing market are where the appraisals will come in. The appraisers and the lenders who hire them are very careful with their final appraisal, which the mortgage amount may be based on. In an escalating market, it is sometimes hard for appraisers to project what the value of the house is without sales comps to support their numbers. In a declining market, it could work to the buyer’s advantage, depending on how the appraisers view and project the market. Either way, appraising is an art, not a science, and appraisers almost always stand by their appraisal numbers, particularly for buyers who are putting down the minimum amount of cash.

Missing the wave isn’t always a bad thing. It gives you a chance to reposition yourself and get ready for the next one. It’s impossible to predict mother nature or the real estate waves.

Castles in the Sand

Is the country in a housing affordability crisis?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

This pains me to say, but I’m glad I‘m not in my 30s anymore. Not because I didn’t think it was the best decade of my life, but because I would hate being in the real estate market now shopping for my first home.

Housing affordability is hitting first-time buyers the hardest. They’re getting it from all sides, high prices, low inventory, tremendous levels of inflation and interest rates that keep inching up. Back in 2020 and 2021, buying a home was more affordable due to record-low interest rates in spite of the fact that inventory was also extremely low. The big question is, will this ever happen again?

Now, however, interest rates and prices are still going up, and although there is some movement in the amount of inventory available, it is still historically low. Now that the Federal Reserve has raised rates again at the end of July to another 0.75%, everyone is watching the mortgage rates to see what happens. As of this writing, the rates went up slightly and were standing last week at an average of 5.55% for a 30-year fixed mortgage per Forbes.

Since the rates have increased, many of the first-time buyers who were doing pretty well on the affordability scale are dropping out of the market. Not only are the monthly mortgage carrying charges going up with the rates, but likely their rent is also climbing too, creating a situation where nothing is being added to their down payment nest egg.

The result of this is the share of first-time buyers is dropping every month. A year ago, their market share was about 31% per The National Association of Realtors, but this year that percentage is dropping into the mid-20% range. In addition, millennials who are between 25 and 40 years old, the age when most adults are starting to own a home and build equity in that home, are being denied that opportunity.

In addition, the favorable tax position that homeowners have is also eating into their wealth. Many of these first-time buyers also live with the fear of overpaying for a home in the real estate frenzy that’s been going on, stretching to buy that home and worrying that it could come crashing down on them. Everyone remembers the financial crisis that was largely fueled by an overheated real estate market and way too careless lending practices.

The National Association of Realtors’ housing affordability index measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent price and income data. The last time this was updated was in May of this year when the index fell to 102.5. This was the lowest level of affordability since the index fell to 100.5 in July 2006. Also, this was very close to the lowest level recorded in July 1990 when the index stood at 100.2.

The decline in affordability makes it especially difficult for first-time home buyers to find their way into the real estate market. There are economists who say we may never see the level of affordability we experienced in the past year or two again. This perfect storm of COVID-19, inflation, interest rates and housing shortages has put an enormous burden on this generation, and it will affect the country’s economy for many years to come. The answer is yes, we are in a housing affordability crisis right now, ask a 30-year-old.

Castles in the Sand

Homeowners consider renting in tight market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

The majority of people in my generation and even those decades younger couldn’t wait to stop paying rent. It was drummed into our brains by our parents and grandparents that paying rent was a waste of money and you need to buy, buy, buy. Like so many other norms in real estate, that philosophy has also been somewhat upended.

An increasing number of professionals around the country who can more than afford to purchase a home and young retirees who may have just sold their family homes are reluctant to buy another one and have decided to rent instead. To make their decision just a little bit more confusing is the shortage of rentals, creating a similar market for rentals that we have been experiencing with sales, including bidding wars and offering more than the asking rental price.

They point out the increase in mortgage rates, the astronomical asking prices and the shortage of inventory to justify their decision. Instead, they are considering renting high-end rentals, way above the $2,000-a-month median national rent, with a lot of amenities, not caring about the cost-versus-owning calculation. Those calculations may have changed, and there are online calculators you can use to determine what the real cost of owning versus renting is over a period of years.

For most property owners, just the straight math of owning versus renting is in favor of renting. This is including the cost of mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance and many other homeownership-related expenses. Of course, property appreciation is not included in this calculation, but many new renters have already cashed out their equity in their previous homes and may be looking for just an easier and less expensive lifestyle and/or are willing to wait for a more normal real estate market.

Renting, of course, will give you more flexibility and freedom to make life decisions. There are no maintenance responsibilities and the burden of doing those repairs is someone else’s problem. Of course, your landlord can increase the rent at the end of your lease, there are no tax benefits to renting, you can’t make changes, pets could be a no-no and rules must be followed.

We all know the pros of owning a home, starting with the appreciation. Becoming a homeowner is the best way for average middle-class people to accrue wealth; over time, it’s a good investment and probably beats the stock market. But what really appeals to buyers about ownership is, of course, the freedom to modify your property, have a tax benefit during the years you will live in the home, have a big deduction on your equity when you sell and privacy.

Owning a home can be inconvenient. There is nothing liquid about a home if you need to sell, and there is a process, even in this favorable market. Monthly expenses can dramatically change in the face of a major repair bill or an increase in property taxes. And even though home ownership traditionally has been a good solid investment, we all saw during the financial crisis that property values can go down.

Renting has been frowned upon in the past by previous generations, but it’s getting another look from a large segment of the population, including young people who can’t afford the real estate environment we’re in and older people and professionals who can afford a home but choose not to buy at this time. Whoever you are, renting is not what it once was, so leaving the housing market and going into the rental market may not be as easy as it sounds.

Castles in the Sand

Homebuyers getting hit every day

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Buying a home was once a happy time for families. Homes were plentiful to choose from, and imagining your grandmother’s credenza in the dining room and the Christmas tree in the living room front window made for happy thoughts.

Now, however, looking for a home is a stressful event if you’re just the average potential homeowner. Inventory is low, prices are high, and, of course, now we have to stress even more about the increase in mortgage interest rates.

As of June 23, according to Forbes, the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.89% and the average rate for a 15-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.13%. These numbers are slightly down. However, typically they are going up, forcing buyers to make some serious decisions, especially if they may not qualify for the additional monthly cost of the increased financing rate.

They can come up with more cash and apply for a smaller loan – usually not a good option for marginal buyers. They can lower their criteria for what kind of home they want at a lower price point and hope it exists. Or they can drop out of the market completely with the hope things improve in a year or whenever. Unfortunately, this is an option that is happening more and more as the interest rates and the selling prices keep going up.

New home buyers are getting hit even harder. Buyers who are in contract for new construction but haven’t closed are facing mortgage interest rates that are getting close to doubling since they agreed to purchase the home. In addition, they are also confronting construction that is taking longer than usual due to supply-chain and labor constraints. Some new home buyers also have to make difficult decisions; how long can they hold out while they’re watching mortgage interest rates go up and the construction on their new home crawling along?

Time now for the May Manatee County sales statistics published by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.

Single-family homes closed 7.3% less than last May. The median sale price was $550,000, 37.5% higher, and the average sale price was $715,504, 26.1% higher. The median time to contract has not changed at six days but the month’s sup- ply of available properties has changed to 1.2 months availability. The good news is new listings are up 17.2%.

Condo sales were up 6.3% over last year. The median sale price was $369,900, 51.9% higher, and the average sale price was $441,674, 41.5% higher. The median time to contract is six days, the same as single family, and the month’s supply of available properties is one month. The good news for condos is also that new listings are up 15.5%.

A combination of higher interest rates and our normal summer slowdown is resulting in a fewer number of sales and more available properties on the market. However, prices, both average and median, remain very strong, according to the president of the Realtor Association, and are still increasing.

Making the biggest investment of your life has always been a stressful event, but it was also mixed with pleasant thoughts of the future and paint colors. Now, however, for the average buyer who needs to watch their dollars, the pleasant thoughts are gone, and they’re left with the stress. My heart goes out to them.

Castles in the Sand

Insurance and affordability

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

It’s the week to report the April sales statistics for Manatee County; it’s also the week where the Florida Legislature may be going into a special session to address the out-of-control property insurance market.

These two topics are completely opposite of each other on the likeability scale – we all love higher sale rates, and we all hate higher insurance rates.

Let’s get the insurance update out of the way so we can enjoy the real estate market part. Gov. Ron DeSantis must be getting a lot of phone calls in Tallahassee because he decided to call another special session of the Legislature when they couldn’t come up with any suggestions that would work to resolve the property insurance problems.

The special session is mandated to bring some stability into the property insurance market, which is experiencing companies leaving the state, dropping policies and/or increasing premiums by double digits. Before they ended their regular session earlier this year, the House and Senate in our state were at odds about how to address the insurance problems. A large part of the problem is higher litigation in Florida relative to other states and with the hurricane season starting June 1, it would take a minor miracle to get anything resolved that quickly.

Before we go over the April numbers, the Emerging Housing Market Index, which measures homebuyers looking for an appreciating housing market and lifestyle amenities, is illuminating for the first quarter of the year. It confirms what most of the real estate economists predicted – that buyers will eventually be priced out of the coastal big city markets and turn to smaller, less dense communities. This, of course, is an opportunity for those who can work remotely and are migrating because of affordability and increasing mortgage interest rates.

The top five emerging housing markets are: Rapid City, South Dakota, Santa Cruz, California, North Port, Florida, Santa Rosa, California, and Naples, Florida. North Port and Naples, Florida were the top two markets in the fourth quarter of 2021. Let’s hope our wonderful Florida west coast doesn’t get discovered too quickly.

Now finally, these are the April sales statistics as reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 18.3% fewer properties. The median sale price was $515,000, up 27.2% from last year, and the average sale price was $729,375, up 26.2% from last year. New listings are up 1.1% and a month’s supply of inventory is up 33.3%, which is still very low at 0.8 month’s supply. The median time to contract is five days.

Condos closed 26.7% fewer properties. The median sale price was $350,000, up 48.9%, and the average sale price was $400,371, up 32.1%. New listings are up 7.7% and a month’s supply of inventory is up 14.3%, still very low at 0.8 month’s supply. The median time to contract is also five days.

The president of the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee states, “As we’ve been anticipating, it appears that the rising interest rates and inflation are beginning to put pressure on our local real estate market.”

Yes, I agree there is a slight dip in the market with fewer sales, but I still think it will take a long time for the selling prices to experience the same dip – too many buyers and too few properties.

Florida continues to be nothing if not interesting. Don’t expect it to change anytime soon. Besides as lovely as it may be, who would really want to live in South Dakota after you’ve seen Anna Maria?

Jason Sato tops county real estate rankings again

Jason Sato tops county real estate rankings again

Written by Joe Hendricks on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

ANNA MARIA – For the fifth consecutive year, Sato Real Estate’s Jason Sato was the top real estate agent in Manatee County in 2019 in combined total sales and listing volume.

Duncan Real Estate owner and broker Darcie Duncan was again the Island’s second-highest seller and she ranked fourth in total volume countywide. AMI Beaches Real Estate agent Gregg Bayer ranked ninth.

The rankings are according to the 2019 Agent Market Share Report for Manatee County.

Sato made 30 sales and had 42 listings for a total volume of $81.5 million. Duncan made 23 sales and had 38 listings for a total volume of $40 million. Bayer made 17 sales and had 18 listings for a total volume of $35 million.

AMI Beaches Real Estate agent Gregg Bayer did more than $35 million in sales and listings in 2019. – Submitted | AMI Beaches Real Estate

Two agents in the top 20 made more than 50 sales and two others had all listings and no sales.

Sato’s streak

“It’s been five years in a row. It’s a lot of hard work and a lot of time put into it,” Sato said. “I grew up on the Island, I live on the Island and people see that I’m active in the community. I don’t stretch myself thin. I focus all my attention on Anna Maria Island and I want to thank my loyal customers.”

Sato said his sales assistant, Grace Wenzel, and office manager, Monica Reid, contribute significantly to his success.

“They’re very helpful setting appointments and getting the paperwork organized. I’ve got a good team behind me. My customers love Grace and she helps me stay organized.”

Sato was asked how 2019 compared to 2018.

“I was up by about $7 million, but for the most part, it was about the same. Hopefully, we can keep it rolling,” he said.

“If you’re doing $30-35 million a year, you’re doing really well,” he said of his peers.

When asked about market trends, Sato said, “People like the newer stuff. Builders are building nicer spec homes and people seem to like those. The market seems pretty solid. Inventory’s good and interest rates are low. A lot of people are buying second homes and more people are buying for themselves rather than for renting. It’s about half and half. It used to lean way more toward the rental side. People still love the Island. People want to be a part of the Island and I think that’s our biggest selling feature. People love that ‘old Florida island’ feel that we still have.”

Proud mom

Sato co-owns Sato Real Estate with his mom and fellow Realtor, Barbara Sato.

“Five years in a row. Nobody’s done that before,” Barbara Sato said. “I’m super proud of him and I believe he gets there by being honest and hardworking. He was raised here, he lives here, he loves the Island and he knows the Island like the back of his hand. The whole office is so proud of him. He’s very deserving.”

Duncan delivers

When asked about her annual appearance near the top of the rankings, Duncan said, “I attribute it to hard work, good client relationships and being in this business for 30 years. I get up every day, work hard and do the best I can to bring my customers the best service I possibly can. And I love what I do.”

Darcie Duncan was once again second on the Island in sales and total volume. – Submitted | Duncan Real Estate

Regarding market trends, Duncan said, “Prices have stabilized and there’s a lot of interest. I see the market being strong this year and you have never seen interest rates as low as what you’re seeing right now. Out here, we’re seeing rates in the low 3% range. You get a lot of house for your money right now with interest rates so low.”

“A lot of people want to buy here and it’s not as rental driven as it was in the year prior. People are looking to retire here. The inventory levels are stable and there’s a lot of different price points, so there’s something for everyone,” Duncan said, noting she has a nice mixture of on-Island and off-Island clients.

When asked about the Island’s older, traditional, ground-level homes, Duncan said, “We’re seeing more people buy them for permanent residences.”

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Castles in the Sand

Today’s challenge for buyers

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

There’s a big predicament out there all over the country for home buyers, especially first-time buyers. There’s nothing to buy and, apparently, it’s my generation’s fault.

United States homeowners are staying in their homes much longer than ever. Nationwide, homeowners are remaining in their homes typically 13 years, which is five years longer than they did in 2010, according to Redfin. This fact is keeping the housing inventory low resulting in low sales statistics month after month. Except for the early part of this year, the inventory of homes for sale is now near the lowest level in 37 years of record-keeping, according to the housing data firm CoreLogic, Inc.

You don’t have to be an economist and expert in the housing market to understand that when owners don’t trade up to a larger home for a growing family or downsize when children leave it there are availability consequences. When this happens, which is rapidly becoming a fact, it puts a cap on the number of homes available for buyers either looking to upgrade or just coming into the market.

The baby boomer generation, who are now entering their seventies, is partly to blame for the lack of inventory since many of them are staying healthier later in life, are more active and don’t see any reason to downsize. Some states make it easier for seniors to stay in their homes with generous tax benefits. In most states, once you move you lose that benefit which only encourages senior homeowners to stay put.

In Manatee County, however, there is a program for homesteaded residents that allows homeowners to move to a new home and retain some of the tax benefits of the original home. This is called portability and it gives you the ability to transfer the “Save Our Homes” cap to a new home. The “Save Our Homes” cap is the difference between your market value and assessed value. For example, if the just value of your new homestead property is more than the just value of your old homestead, you will be able to transfer your cap up to the $500,000 limit. This went into effect on January 1, 2008, and allows you two years to make the application for portability. In addition, there is no limit on the number of times you move and apply for portability.

October sales statists from the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee is showing a similar trend in inventory. Here are the numbers.

Both Manatee and Sarasota counties continue the upward drift in sales prices with Manatee doing a little better. The number of closed single-family homes in Manatee County increased by 5% compared to last October. The median sale price for single-family is $325,000, up 9.1% from last year and the average is $396,342, up 7.4%. Sarasota’s single-family median sale prices increased by 5.6% to $285,000 and their average sales price increased by 12.5% to $385,131.

Condos in Manatee County closed 0.5% fewer sales, however, the median sale price increased 0.9% from last October to $192,999 and the average sale price increased 20.2% to $262,724. Sarasota’s condo median sale price decreased 5.7% to $220,352 and their average also decreased by 0.9% to $297,501.

Inventory of available properties continued to drop in Manatee County to a 3.4 months supply for single-family homes and 3.7% for condos, putting additional pressure on the market. Who knows what the inventory future holds and the effect it will have on the upcoming selling season? In the meantime, buyers are just waiting and waiting and blaming their parents and grandparents. Happy Thanksgiving!

More Castles in the Sand:

Mythical credit scores

When did $100,000 not become enough?

Are condos the future of housing?

Castles in the Sand

Mythical credit scores

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Generally, credit scores are available through one of your credit card companies, financial institution or loan statement, and if you don’t know yours you should make a point of finding out even if you have to pay a fee. You are entitled to a free credit report from the three national credit bureaus annually, but they do not contain credit scores.

One of the most misunderstood aspects of mortgage financing is the mystical credit score. Many people applying for credit, whether it’s home financing, automobile financing or credit cards, are terrified of what their credit score is and how it will impact their ability to be granted a loan.

Credit score ranges start at 300 and go up to 850. 740 to 799 is very good and is where 25 percent of people are and 800 to 850 is exceptional and is where 20 percent of people are. Obviously, you want to acquire a credit score as high as possible as it will not only affect your ability to borrow money but also getting accepted for an apartment, deposit waivers on services as well as enticing potential employers.

There is, however, a lot of misinformation about credit scores. For instance, future homeowners worry that shopping around for a mortgage will hurt their credit score. Not true, the scoring models assume you’re going through a shopping process and will bundle these requests into a single inquiry.

Another one is understanding the difference between a hard inquiry and a soft inquiry. A hard inquiry is when you’re trying to refinance your mortgage or sign up for a store credit card, those inquiries could drop your score a few points whereas a soft inquiry could be a background check or a utility company setting up a new account.

Also, many people believe that carrying a balance on a credit card is good for the credit score, but here again it doesn’t help. Keep in mind that it is important to utilize your credit but not to max out your credit. A rule of thumb is to use less than 30 percent of your available credit each month and ideally less than 10 percent.

What is very important is to pay your bills on time and have mature credit accounts with a diverse range of loan products. This shows good handling of debt and experience with the use of credit. Also, asking for a credit limit increase can be one of the fastest and easiest no-cost ways that anyone can help their credit score.

What is at the bottom of the list of bad things to do to drop your credit score is a foreclosure and bankruptcy. Late mortgage payments, collections especially if a lender takes a loss, foreclosures and chapter 13 bankruptcies hurt your credit score for seven years. A chapter seven bankruptcy will hurt it for 10 years. If you mismanage your credit and get in one of these positions, you can pretty much kiss your new home goodbye.

Finally, take advantage of your free credit report annually. Credit card companies make mistakes and you might catch a fraudulent use of a credit card or new inquiry for credit. If you know you will be applying for a home loan, it might also be a good idea to purchase a credit monitoring service, so you know immediately if there is a mistake or some hanky-panky on your credit report.

Knowing ahead of time will save you a lot of grief down the road when your home loan or car loan or student loan is turned down for something you’re not responsible for.

Staying informed is the best defense against the mythical credit score monster.

More Castles in the Sand:

When did $100,000 not become enough?

Are condos the future of housing?

The ghosts of real estate

Castles in the Sand

Are condos the future of housing?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

In case you haven’t noticed, interest rates are low, real low. Most rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are hovering around 4% based on credit scores and income to loan ratios. In spite of this, condo financing has always been somewhat of a poor stepchild to single-family home financing. New condo construction loans have been especially vulnerable to government regulations, but now The Federal Housing Administration has issued some new guidelines making available more advantageous condo financing programs.

FHA is trying to be more responsive to market conditions as well as accepting that condo units are being viewed more broadly as a way to provide affordable housing in many markets. Generally, single-family homes may not be accessible for first-time buyers and others who are trying to gain access to homeownership and condos nicely fill that need.

The new regulations are geared for new condo construction primarily but will also have an effect on the availability of condos for first-time buyers. Among other changes is one that has been a big issue for condo builders and that’s the owner-occupancy rate. The new FHA regulations have lowered the number of owner-occupancy rates as low as 35% from 50% before individuals can qualify for financing in new condo construction.

Condos are a big deal in Florida and in Manatee County. Although the number of condo sales was down in September for Manatee County, the sale prices were up, so let’s take a look at the county overall:

In September Manatee County closed 15.2% more single-family homes than last September. The median selling price for single-family was $315,000, 6.8% higher than last September. The average sale price was $381,577, 9.6% higher than last year.

Condo sales in September were down 8.6%, but the median sale price was up 6.7% to $199,000 and the average sale price was also up by 16.1% to $244,587. Both single-family and condos are low in inventory with the single-family home months supply at 3.3 months and condo months supply at 3.8 months. As a reminder, 5.5 months supply is the benchmark for a balanced market.

Sarasota County is also showing some increases in sales and pricing for single-family and condos. The median sale price for single-family in Sarasota increased by 6.4% to $298,000 and for condos, the median price decreased slightly by 1.8% to $232,000.

Statewide single-family homes reached a median of $265,000, an increase of 5.3%, and an average of $339,862, an increase of 4.9%. Condos statewide also increased with the median selling price at $193,000, a 5.8% increase, and an average of $261,532, a 1.3% increase.

All county and statewide statistics are from the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee website.

Evidence continues to mount that condo sales will play a more significant role in the mortgage origination market in the next few years, according to CoreLogic. With a flood of millennials and other first-time homebuyers expected to soon enter the market for affordable housing, CoreLogic foresees a rising demand for condos in the near future.

Millennials aside, Florida is a hot market not only for retirees but homeowners relocating to a tax-friendly state with a lot of new construction and fundamentally great weather. But if you’re starting to think of relocating to the Sunshine State, you better get moving. Inventory is low, prices are high and interest rates are still historically low. Come on down!

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The ghosts of real estate

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Castles in the Sand

The ghosts of real estate

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

I never really believed in ghosts and evil spirits. It was always fun to talk about other people’s experiences at parties but since I never had any first-hand knowledge it was just that, fun until it wasn’t.

Anna Maria Island has its share of ghost sightings including haunted restaurants, even one with a ghost cat. Hotels have had sightings – how about a bride ghost – and, of course, Coquina Beach has its resident ghost. Naturally, some clever entrepreneurs have packaged these events into entertaining tours around the Island, so you can get up close and personal. But if you’re selling your property and you think you may have a ghost, what do you do?

Thankfully, Florida absolves property owners of the responsibility of disclosing paranormal activity in homes or the fact that a crime was committed in a home. In addition, the seller does not even have to disclose that their property was suspected to be the site of a crime. Further, a seller has no obligation to disclose homicides, suicides or deaths that occurred on the property. Basically, you can sell your property with all the ghosts, ghouls and goblins as an added bonus.

Florida is one of more than 20 states with laws that say agents and sellers won’t be held liable for failing to mention that 20 years earlier a wife stabbed her husband in the home’s master bedroom, for instance, or the possibility of paranormal activity. Our state does not consider these events material facts and therefore property owners are not subject to possible lawsuits down the road; you can do absolutely nothing within the law. However, in plenty of other states, you may be legally required to say something about your haunted house, deaths, suicides or crimes.

To me it does sound a little unnecessary to disclose deaths in a property; after all, how does an aged grandfather dying comfortably in his bed impact the structural integrity of a home. Even more unfair is a home that has no past history, but rumors have taken over facts and turned it into a stigmatized property that now has to be disclosed to potential buyers. This has happened in cases of celebrity or well-publicized events like the home where JonBenet Ramsey lived. Owners of some so-called stigmatized properties have even resorted to changing the property address in an effort to remove some of the stigma. Unfortunately, since you can’t prove the unproven, sellers are stuck and must disclose in states that require it.

As a general rule, it’s always better to disclose everything you know about a home, whether or not the law requires it. It will give your buyer a sense of honesty that is always important in a business transaction and will allow you to move out with a clear conscience knowing you’ve done the right thing.

My up close and personal ghost experience happened in a 17th-century hotel in Rome. Although I never actually saw a spirit, they did move several things around and made a copy of The New York Times disappear and then reappear in the exact spot. It was enough to give me the creeps and start paying closer attention to cocktail party talk.

If you’re selling your home and you think that it may be stigmatized in any way, ethics should prevail; if it makes you uncomfortable probably a good thing to disclose it even though you’re not obligated. Have a boo time on Halloween!

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You found the perfect house; now what?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

You may think it’s finally over – you found your dream home, your forever home or your long-dreamed-of beach house. But guess what, unless you have lots of cash in your checking account, you will have to apply for a mortgage.

There have been for many, many years two basic types of mortgages, the fixed-rate mortgage and the adjustable-rate mortgage or ARM. The fixed-rate mortgage is just that – your principal and interest payment are fixed for the life of the mortgage or until you sell the property and satisfy the mortgage balance. Fixed-rate mortgages give you a set amount of money every month to budget for and builds equity for a home that you feel will be a long-term purchase. Building equity will also give you the option of refinancing in the future if rates go down possibly resulting in a lower monthly mortgage payment.

Adjustable-rate mortgages are typically a fixed rate for a specific number of years, for example, 5 years, and then are adjusted annually either up or down. Generally, adjustable-rate mortgages start at a lower rate than a fixed rate, but you take the risk of monthly payments increasing substantially as the rates fluctuate after the fixed number of years has been reached.

Adjustable-rate loans could be a good choice if you’re planning on selling your home within a short period of time prior to when the fixed-rate term expires. However, this type of mortgage does not build much, if any, equity, a consideration in a real estate market that may be on the way down.

Whichever type of mortgage you choose, the amount of money you put down will influence the rate you are offered. A 20% or higher down payment will likely provide the best mortgage rates and the most options as well as substantially reducing the risk of the home not appraising.

Putting down between 5% and 19% will put you in the position of having to pay a higher interest rate and/or fees. In addition, lenders most likely will require private mortgage insurance (PMI). Private mortgage insurance is an insurance policy that allows you to make a lower down payment by insuring the lender against loss if you don’t make your mortgage payments. A lower down payment could be a good thing for buyers with little cash or if the home requires work and the cash to do it. PMI payments start going down after equity has built up in the home.

Finally, there are no-down-payment or small-down-payment loan programs which are more expensive but are an alternative. If you or someone in your family are trying to get into a home with little cash, they should research FHA loans or, if qualified, VA loans, both with low down payment options.

Two things you should try and avoid in-home financing are balloon payments and prepayment penalties. Balloon payments are a large payment required usually at the end of the loan repayment period with varying amounts based on the terms of the loan. Prepayment penalties are an amount required if you refinance, pay off your loan early or sell your home. And one nice little trick to help you pay off your mortgage sooner and build equity is to make extra payments during the course of the year.

Once you find the perfect mortgage and get through the mortgage qualifying maze, you’re ready to enjoy your perfect home; I hope for you, it’s the beach house.

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Is homeownership threatened?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

For most Americans, their biggest source of wealth is the equity in their homes. But what if you never own a home? What if being a renter is your fate? How does that impact your future wealth and state of mind?

Homeownership rates for younger Americans have fallen over the past 10 years and are near the lowest levels in more than three decades of recordkeeping. About 40% of young adults ages 25 to 34 were homeowners in 2018 according to federal data analyzed by Freddie Mac. That is down from about 48% in 2001.

In addition, the median age of a home buyer is 46, vastly increased from when I purchased my first home at age 27. According to the National Association of Realtors, this is the oldest median age since they began keeping records in 1981. For young people, it’s a vicious cycle of rents going up and student debt putting more financial pressure on young adults who can’t seem to get a foothold in the American dream.

Generally, lower homeownership promotes lower growth by forcing older Americans to stay in their homes because there are fewer buyers for entry-level properties. And even though the price of entry-level homes has been rising, without savings, the pool of buyers keeps shrinking.

So, is homeownership worth it? Sometimes yes and sometimes no depending on individual needs. These are some of the questions you need to think about:

What can I afford, should I keep paying rent until I find the perfect home, or should I take the plunge now with the goal of trading up down the road?

How long do you plan on staying in the home? If you know your job may relocate you within a year maybe you want to wait before spending the money required to get into a home. Or if you’re living in a “hot” market you may want to go for it with the hope of turning a nice profit in a short period of time.

Even if your job is not a factor, are you the type of person who likes stability or flexibility? Owning a home by definition is not a flexible choice considering maintenance and repairs that are required in most homes, not to mention the cost of upkeep. If you want to be footloose and fancy-free, better keep renting.

Finally, your decision may be all about the family. If you have children, the quality of the schools may be your deciding factor. Do rentals even exist in the school district of your choice or is purchasing a home the only way to provide the best education for your children? Also, having property space for kids to run around may require you to purchase a home.

The advantages of owning your home are many, with building equity and establishing good credit being the primary reasons people buy homes. Even with the new tax laws limiting some deductions, many homeowners may still see tax benefits to owning. And of course, there is the independence of Americans to own their own property and not having to answer to landlords.

The disadvantages of owning start with finances. It costs more money to own and maintain a home than renting. When you rent, someone else is responsible for the repairs and the cost of those repairs. Renting also insulates you from falling home values, which we all remember has happened.

It’s nice to have a choice in life and a choice in whether you want to own or rent. Unfortunately, it appears we are building an ever-increasing group of permanent renters who may not have another choice. Let’s hope the American dream isn’t shattered forever.

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Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Is there an algorithm in your future? If you’re planning on buying or selling a house, get ready for the future of real estate.

In a world where technology has remade everything from your morning coffee to tracking your investments, the real estate market has remained very old school. Reams of paperwork are the norm and interaction with local real estate professionals is the custom in most markets around the country. It wasn’t that many years ago when local real estate associations opened up multiple listing access to consumers making practically everyone an informed expert. If the availability of multiple listing properties to everyone was a big step, wait until you see what’s coming down the road.

iBuyer computer platforms have been gradually immersing themselves in the real estate market, offering buyers and sellers practically on-the-spot gratification. An iBuyer is a company that uses technology to make an offer on your home instantly. iBuyers represent a dramatic shift in the way people are buying and selling homes, offering a simpler, more convenient alternative to traditional home sales. Just search iBuyers and you’ll be amazed at the hits you get.

Companies like Knock and Zillow are betting big time on the success of these platforms in a world where everyone is too busy to complete traditional real estate transactions. Knock, for example, helps customers buy a new home, usually an upgraded one, and then stages the old home and gets it on the market right away. There are, of course, fees for this service but for many professional couples, it’s worth it.

Zillow and others buy the property after an appraisal and the sellers move on without the hassle of selling. So far Zillow is moving along with its business plan, buying more than 1,500 homes in the second quarter of the year.

Then we have startups who are offering people with good income but not so good credit a way to get into a home. Divvy Homes buys homes then rents the homes to their clients so they can have a place to live, pay rent and build equity towards eventual ownership. This is an idea that has its roots in the real estate industry known as rent with an option to buy, which was a private contract between two parties. It worked for many buyers and sellers in the pre-tech world, especially for difficult-to-sell properties.

Now Divvy and others like Flyhomes are offering high tech plans to fill a need aimed at first-time buyers who are probably already renters. It’s not uncommon for first-time buyers to be faced with student loan debt and little or no savings while they’re getting their careers up and running.

Divvy’s plan is to charge monthly rent with about 20% of the monthly payment going toward equity to buy the property. The monthly rent is higher than what the going rate for a similar rental would be, but equity is being built. Naturally, Divvy makes most of their money from the rent paid.

Flyhomes offers a full-service brokerage, buys the homes for cash giving their clients an edge and then underwrites the potential mortgage. Naturally, there are fees attached to this as well as traditional real estate brokerage commissions.

Ask five different real estate agents what your home is worth and you’ll get five completely different answers. Ask an algorithm what your home is worth and you’ll at least get one answer which may or may not be correct. No matter how you feel about technology getting involved in real estate, we can all agree that it’s definitely a disruption.

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Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Recovery, what recovery? That’s a word we left in our rearview mirror a long time ago. It’s true in Florida generally, and Anna Maria Island specifically has recovered nicely since the financial downturn. There are areas of the country that are still struggling, but August may have been the turn-around month.

According to the National Association of Realtors, August was the strongest month for sales of United States homes in nearly a year and a half. Sales of previously owned homes rose 1.3% in August with a median sale price of $278,200, up 4.7% from the previous August. Conversely, the availability of homes for sale fell in August further increasing prices. Add to this the average fixed-rate mortgage for a 30-year loan was 3.73% at the end of September.

Is this the beginning of the national real estate market starting to turn the corner? Real estate sales have been underperforming relative to jobs and the economy as a whole and economists are viewing the statistics for the past two months as a very good sign.

If you’re interested in how the national market compares to our local Manatee County market, keep reading.

Closed single-family homes were up 10.3% from last August and the median sale price continues to be strong at $317,000, 7.1% higher than last year. The average sale price for single-family homes was $408,738, up 4% from last year. The median time to contract is down by 4.5% to only 42 days and the month’s supply of available properties is 3.3 months.

Condos closed fewer properties down at 25.9%, however, the median sale price was higher at $205,000, up 7.9%. The average sale price was also up 13.1% to $251,339. The median time to contract was up 6.4% to 50 days and the month’s supply of condos is at 3.6 months.

Sales statistics are from the Realtor Association of Sarasota Manatee.

Our sales in both the numbers of properties sold and sale prices continue to perform well compared to the national statistics. Nationally, the median single-family sale price for August was $278,200 up 4.7% from last August, compared to Manatee County’s median of $317,000 up 7.1%.

Based on the above, it’s not a surprise that the southern region of the country ended August with an increase of 3.6% in sales, making it the largest annual growth in sales volume in the country. And this may be just the beginning, as more and more high-income residents of high taxed states are just beginning to feel the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and are taking refuge in the South.

There are 41 states that collect taxes on wages and salary, with California taking the highest percentage at 13.3%. The remaining nine states that are income tax-free are Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. If you’re a part-time resident of one of these states and are considering full-time residency, check out the individual state’s qualifications to establish permanent residency. Both the state you’re leaving and the one you’re coming to have strict and varied residency rules.

It looks like there will be big changes for Florida and other low tax states right around the corner. Nevertheless, don’t get too comfortable with what you see in the rearview mirror when it comes to real estate markets. You never know when that truck will start gaining on you.

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Luxury ain’t what it used to be

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand.

Did you ever feel sorry for the really wealthy real estate owners? Well, we’re at a point in time when there might be just cause for feeling sorry for them because like all sellers, when your market is slow everyone deserves some sympathy.

Wealthy buyers are pulling back from some of the most expensive housing markets in the country. Toll Brothers Inc., the nation’s largest publicly traded luxury-home builder said that purchase agreements fell 3% from a year earlier, worse than the expected 1% predicted.

A large slice of this decline is concentrated in California where homes under contract had an average price of $1.74 million in the last quarter. Toll Brothers further indicated their orders in California tumbled 36% from a year earlier.

Some of this decline in the luxury market, in California at least, is the Chinese buyers that are pulling back from the market combined with the federal tax overall limiting deductions for property taxes and mortgage interest. However, what happens in California may stay in California since Palm Beach, Florida recently had a record sale of over $100 million.

In addition, low interest rates, wage growth and record low unemployment rates are moving first time buyers into the market, creating a demographic shift in the lower price ranges. The luxury market is adversely affected by an improving lower end market since all real estate markets are interconnected.

That said, let’s take a look at the three-month analysis of properties selling over $1 million on Anna Maria Island and in Cortez for May, June and July. Closed sales are compiled from the Manatee County Property Appraisers Office and available properties from realtor.com as of this writing.

Cortez did not close any $1 million or over properties during May, June and July. In the prior analysis, there were two sales.

The city of Anna Maria closed 13 properties at $1 million or over, ranging from $3,395,000 to $1,075,000. The last three-month analysis showed 14 properties closed in this price range.

Finally, the combined cities of Holmes Beach and Bradenton Beach closed 14 properties $1 million or over during May, June and July, ranging from $3,725,000 to $1,000,000. The last analysis showed 19 closings.

Currently on the market or pending in Cortez, there are six $1 million or over properties. For the last analysis, there were five.

The city of Anna Maria has 48 properties either available or in contract ranging from $5,500,000 to just above $1 million. Besides the highest listing, there are two over $4 million, five over $3 million, 12 over $2 million and the balance below $2 million. The last analysis had 60 properties listed.

Bradenton Beach and Holmes Beach currently have 69 properties either available or in contract ranging from $599,000 to $1,149,000. Three are over $5 million, three are over $4 million, two are over $3 million, 15 are over $2 million and the balance are under $2 million. The last analysis had 68 comparable properties.

If the luxury market is falling off generally around the country price-wise, Anna Maria Island is not listening, at least not yet.

These continue to be pretty impressive numbers for a small island and an even smaller fishing village. And as noted in this paper previously, Cortez is the second least affordable place to live in Florida, according to a study by UnitedSatesZipCodes.org. First place goes to Boca Grande. To be fair, the rankings are determined by calculating several factors and Cortez being a small area with many high-priced homes certainly contributes to this calculation.

See you again in three months. In the meantime, it’s okay to feel sorry for the very wealthy – the little darlings.

More Castles in the Sand:

The fun and not-so-fun of selling a home

The fun and not-so-fun of buying a home

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