My favorite real estate expression is “all real estate is local,” which I have used in this space many times. But what exactly does that mean?
Essentially it means that real estate markets are significantly influenced by local factors and conditions, rather than national or global trends. Also, it means that property values, demand and investment potential can vary greatly even within the same city or across the street.
This is important to the value of property because growth, population trends, school districts, amenities and local regulations all impact property values and demand. Relying solely on national or global trends can lead to poor decisions because they don’t capture the nuances of local markets. Therefore, when you read the following national statistics recently appearing in the Wall Street Journal according to Intercontinental Exchange, a financial technology and data company, keep this in mind: The metro areas that had the biggest increase in home prices in April compared to a year ago are: Bridgeport, Conn., Scranton, Pa., Hartford, Conn., Syracuse, N.Y. and New York, N.Y. These increased ranged from a high of 7.3% to 6.4%.
The biggest decreases were in Lakeland, Fla., Tampa, Fla., Austin, Texas, North Port, Fla. and Cape Coral, Fla. These declines ranged from a high of 7.5% to 2.2%.
The report also compares home prices vs. change in housing inventories. For example, New York’s prices increased 6.4% in April while inventory was down 46% from pre-pandemic levels. This trend continued through the Midwest down through Texas and Florida ending in Cape Coral, Fla with a decline in prices of 7.5% in a year.
Also influencing these numbers is the amount of southern migrating occurring from 2020 to 2024. During that time, the south’s population grew 5.1% with Florida and Texas benefiting the most. Florida’s population increased 8.5% and Texas’ population increased 7.4% during this period, per the Census Bureau.
In response to the increase in population, builders started building in areas of Florida in particular that were farming communities. There are now new home communities going up in west Bradenton and north of the Manatee River in Parrish, inflating the number of properties on the market in Manatee County.
Nationally, the supply of homes for sale is still around 16% below pre-pandemic levels, according to Realtor.com. which is not what Florida is experiencing. Homeowners who locked in low mortgage rates a few years ago are reluctant to sell their homes and take on new mortgages with a higher borrowing cost, and buyers are still waiting for lower interest rates.
The wrap-up on these numbers is that the Northeast and Midwest home prices continue to rise in all major markets. In the South, particularly in Texas and Florida, prices are flat or falling. And in the West, prices are rising in some markets and falling in others.
In addition, the overall U.S housing market is far less active than it was a few years ago when mortgage rates were low and remote work allowed people to move farther from their offices. Again, I would not bet money on any of this. I’m not saying it’s not true only that it can change in a heartbeat. As soon as the snowbirds from all over the country and Canada figure out that Florida’s prices are dropping, and new construction is readily available, they will come back in force looking for a bargain.
Everything in life is dictated by what’s happening in your state, county, and street. All real estate is local; you better believe it.
