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Tag: Louise Bolger

Does your family have a pot of gold?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

I’m a firm believer in making it on your own, probably because of the generation and the family I grew up in. However, I do recognize that the housing market we’ve been experiencing for at least the past five years has made it very difficult for first-time buyers to get in the game. This is where that pot of gold comes in, held mostly by the baby boomer generation.

Buying a home has always been a milestone of financial independence, but unfortunately, young potential homeowners are caught up in the least affordable housing market in decades. This is the reason they’re looking toward their parents and grandparents to give them a boost into homeownership. 

Nearly 40% of U.S. adults receive financial help from family members when purchasing their first home. This help takes the form of down payment funds as a gift, co-signing a mortgage to help buyers qualify, or taking out the mortgage on their behalf with a private arrangement to pay some or all of the monthly carrying charges. This does not include living support by providing rent-free living, so the buyer can save up enough for the down payment.

Also, generations are not created equal. For example, the baby boomer generation, ranging in age between 62 and 80, got a big boost coming on the coattails of a great economy right after World War II. There was a massive building boom and just about every young family was able to buy a home without assistance and move up the financial ladder. 

The millennials, aged 30 to 45, started feeling the financial pinch, requiring roughly 56% of them getting financial help. And 80% of Gen X homebuyers aged 14 to 29 will be getting help from family, if they even try to buy. 

These statistics are from Live Now (from Fox) and Lending Tree. Redfin found in a November 2025 survey that 26% of Americans aged 18 to 44 used family money to fund their down payment. As you can see, statistical outcomes depend on the question you ask, and who you ask. However, it’s pretty clear that young buyers need family help to get into a home today.

Going into business with your parents or in-laws is tricky. They want to help, but they also want a say in the end product – and depending on how much of a say, it could be a great partnership or a lifelong disaster. 

Having your inheritance given to you when you really need it makes a lot of sense and it is a huge benefit to the younger generation. But family members are human and they have likely worked hard for what they have, making more sacrifices than the current generation has needed to do. This can be a difficult dynamic to navigate through and it requires respect on both sides.

Several times in the last few weeks, I received graduation pictures ranging from kindergarten to college. I looked at these young Americans and wondered what the future holds for them. Are they counting on a pot of gold, or will they go back to the work ethic of the 1950’s and start building their own pot of gold? Whatever they choose, I hope they don’t count themselves out when the road over the rainbow gets rough. Keep your eye on the pot of gold.

Why can’t so many buy a home?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

There is a continuing dialogue in the country, in Florida and in Manatee County about the price of homes and, of course, the cost of a mortgage.

In this column, in recent weeks, I’ve talked about the influx of new residents to the state, the cost of renovations and the best way to choose a mortgage. So, as I stated last week, since we’re obsessed with mortgage rates, let’s start there.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, per Freddie Mac, rose to 6.51% the week of May 18, the highest level since August of last year. The previous week, the rate was 6.36%. This, of course, didn’t make home shoppers very happy, since every uptick in rates reduces their target price range. 

Even a small change in mortgage rates can affect a buyer, and a significant change could take a buyer out of the market completely. For example, a buyer qualified for a $400,000 mortgage at 6% might only qualify for a $384,000 mortgage at 6.5%

In February, when the rates dipped to 6%, everyone, me included, thought we were at the beginning of an upswing. That was before the Middle East war started playing havoc with oil prices and worries about inflation. Suddenly, the pool of buyers narrowed and both buyers and sellers had to rethink their positions.

June is National Homeownership Month, which raises awareness about the value of owning a home and making homeownership accessible to all Americans, while highlighting the benefits of homeownership that include building personal and generational wealth and stronger communities. In Florida, the homeownership rate hovers around 68%.

A new analysis from Construction Coverage, a company that uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau, states the last decade of rapid home price growth has severely worsened housing affordability across the United States. Home values surged more than 81% between 2016 and 2026, dramatically outpacing wage growth, which was up 47%, and reshaping housing affordability nationwide.

Locally, home price growth in Bradenton between 2016 and 2026 experienced an increase of $157,466 in the median home price; that is an 80.4% increase in just 10 years. Comparing home price growth with wage growth in Bradenton, the most recent income data shows an increase of 49.8% over 10 years in Bradenton’s median household income.

Sorry if all of these numbers are making you dizzy; however, the bottom line is that wage growth is not keeping up with sales growth in Bradenton and around the country. This is a big affordability issue for buyers wanting to get into a home

Getting back to interest rates: 6.51% was almost identical to the 2002 average of 6.54%. In 1987, the first year I had my real estate license, the average rate was 10.21%; and the year I bought my first house, in 1974, the average rate was 9.195%. Somehow, we all lived through it and didn’t talk nearly as much about interest rates as we do now.

By the way, I keep a record of interest rates from the Freddie Mac archive starting in 1971 and it’s been a good reality check down through the years – something we all need once in a while.

Old homes, old problems

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

Is it charming or is it just old? This is the age-old question homebuyers who are looking for a home with character continually ask themselves. Since our country will be celebrating its 250th birthday this year, chances are there are lots of homes with character to choose from.

According to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, the median home in the country is 44 years old. That’s median meaning half, so that leaves many other properties older than that. In fact, 29.5 million units are 55 years old or more.

The housing boom started in the 1920’s but really exploded after World War II to accommodate the new confidence in the country, resulting in higher birth rates and returning soldiers. Add to this a building surge during the 1970’s and we’re now looking at enough old homes to give “This Old House” decades of TV shows.

The cost of maintenance and structural repairs grew by about 14.1% between 2022 and 2024, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Financial advisers traditionally suggest setting aside 1% of a home’s value annually for upkeep. Now, however, that recommended number has increased to 2% or 3%, particularly for older homes. Once you start ripping out walls for a remodel in an older home, you’re never sure what you’re going to find or how much money it will add to the project.

In addition, older homes can face homeowner’s insurance issues. Aging roofs, siding and systems can increase premiums or result in not being able to get coverage on the house at all. This could lead to mortgage lenders denying a loan because of the property’s condition.

Florida has a definite leg up on new home construction. If you want new construction, just take a ride down Cortez Road, or out east to Parrish, and you’ll find literally thousands of new homes being built every day. Do they have the charm and character of some older homes, maybe, maybe not, but they do have new roofs and everything else.

Also, in a slow real estate market, the homes that are selling are the ones in good condition, with no major repair issues and are priced right. And they’re out there, since only 34% of existing homes on the market need repairs or updates. Unfortunately, many sellers are living in the past when the market was on the upswing, but that was then, this is now, and sellers need to readjust their expectations.

The two regions where homes are selling quickly are in the Midwest and Northeast, where there is a lack of new construction keeping the supply of available properties down. I believe the new construction in our state is hurting the Florida market, and certainly in areas where there is an abundance of new construction, like Manatee County, creating competition for existing properties.

If an older, charming home is still on your radar, remember you’re not just buying an older home; you’re buying an expensive maintenance schedule. You can put off the “someday I’ll get to the bathroom renovation” until the 40-year-old tub springs a leak, or the 50-year-old soffits finally blow off in a storm, but it will eventually catch up with you.

Is charming just another word for old? Be careful what you wish for.

Time to think positive, no matter what you read

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

According to national real estate reporting, the sky is falling. I agree the housing market has been stuck in a rut for the past three years, which is why I’m feeling optimistic. It’s time; and based on last month’s sales statistics, I think the time is now.

According to the National Association of Realtors, national home sales declined 3.6% in March – not a good sign for the spring selling season that most of the country depends on. This is the lowest level of sales since June of 2025.

Manatee County, which is essentially at the end of its strong selling season, closed 21.9% more single-family homes in March this year compared to last year. Our median sale price for single-family homes was $494,205, down 2.4% from last year – compared to the national median of home sales, which was $408,800, a 1.4% increase. The Southeast market has been stubbornly sluggish; however, we see a small uptick with more sales and fewer properties on the market.

The one thing potential condo buyers can’t quite get past are the increases in HOA fees in the condo market nationwide. Homeowners all over the country are paying more than ever to homeowner associations, sometimes more than their mortgage and property taxes. The median monthly condo fee was $420 in 2025, up 29% from 2019, according to realtor.com.

Mortgage rates can trend lower, or at least stabilize, but insurance and maintenance costs keep going up, whether you own a condo or a single-family home. Condo lovers defend this by pointing out that condo fees pay for amenities and salaries for staff to maintain the property and the amenities. It’s part of the condo maintenance-free lifestyle and it costs money.

Coastal Florida condo owners pay higher HOA fees for the privilege of living on or near the water on both coasts. This means flood insurance and higher property insurance for both associations and individuals, not to mention expenses related to hurricanes and tropical storms. Hurricane Helene was almost two years ago and some condo associations are still recovering financially as we’re staring down a new hurricane season. 

Condo associations are mandated by the state to maintain financial reserves to cover normal expenses to run the association. The problem occurs in associations where condo boards and residents don’t think ahead to the day when they may need additional funds to cover long-put-off maintenance issues or make repairs from storms. The collapse of the Surfside condo building in 2021 is the perfect example of what can happen when maintenance issues are not addressed. 

In addition, because of repairs created by damage from Hurricane Helene, many condo associations were required to collect special assessments to pay the repair bills. How much of a special assessment depended on the severity of the damage and the financial health of the association.

In spite of all the negative talk about condo living, here in Manatee County we are seeing a small but significant change in the condo market. For the month of March, condos closed 12% more properties compared to last year. Although the selling prices were down 11.3%, the available properties were also down by 13.4% – possibly creating more of a competitive market.

If you’re one of the millions of condo owners who are convinced the sky is falling, it’s probably time to change your expectations. Remember why you live in a condo to begin with and prepare for higher HOA fees – unless, of course, you want to mow the lawn and clean the pool.

End of season, end of sales?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

April is almost over, Easter was over two weeks ago, and your house or condo is still waiting for a viable offer. I wish I could give you an answer why our typical selling season came and went leaving properties still unsold, but I can’t; and I challenge anyone involved in real estate sales to come up with why. 

If you watch the local news, real estate predictions and editorials, both in print and online, the answer is pretty much the same: interest rates. It’s easy to blame it on the interest rates, but since rates are lower than a year ago, when they were averaging 6.65%, that alone doesn’t compute. 

Yes, we did have a dip in rates in February when they fell below 6%, but for the past four weeks rates rose, reaching 6.38%. It happened fast, which could have spooked buyers who were still nervous. Now, bankers are blaming the war for home purchase applications being down 5% in one week, which is not that much of a crazy idea. 

The White House, in its effort to do something to get the real estate ball rolling again, is considering an idea floated by the Mortgage Bankers Association to underwrite mortgages based on a single credit report and not the typical three credit reports which has been the practice for years. This policy would only apply to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac federal taxpayer-backed loans – please tell me I didn’t hear subprime. 

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported its 12-month analysis that indicated growth for the year was down nationally by 0.9%. For the 20 cities tracked, New York City reported the highest annual gain at 4.9%, while Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.5%. In addition, for the eighth consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation.

Let’s see what’s going on in Manatee County, using sales statistics reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee for the month of March: Single-family homes closed 21.9% more properties compared to last year. The median sale price was $494,205, down 2.4%. The time to contract was 51 days, up 10.9%. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.7 months, down 9.6%.

Condos closed 12% more properties compared to last year. The median sale price was $300,000, down 11.3%. The month’s supply of available properties was 7.1 months, down 13.4%.

To me, these numbers translate to a slightly better market with fewer properties, more sales and a stabilization of pricing. There are also more cash sales, typically from second home and relocation buyers, which is also a good sign. The press release from The Association of Realtors relating to both Sarasota and Manatee Counties says the market is “shifting to a more balanced and strategic market.”

Finally, there’s something afoot in Florida’s education system. It started with COVID, when families who could work remotely moved to Florida because they were anxious to get their kids back in school. 

Apparently, in the last five years, Florida has improved their education system by offering school choice and improved special needs programs, as well as dividing academic time between at-home learning and taking classes at the local school. 

Florida is now marketing itself as not only having great beaches and low taxes, but as also having great education opportunities. Frankly, I’m happy to hear it, but I’m also a little surprised. This can only be a benefit to the real estate market, which may finally be waking up.

Artificial intelligence is real estate’s future

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

A couple of weeks ago, my brother-in-law who lives outside of Allentown, Pennsylvania, sent me the real estate column from that day’s daily paper. Keep in mind that Ron is from the generation where you read a newspaper every day, and sometimes more than one. 

Being the avid reader he is, I send him this publication weekly, which he reads cover to cover and frequently calls me with questions and/or corrections in my column, as well as occasionally mailing newspaper columns. I accept his comments with the good intentions he means and move on. However, the latest column he sent was on artificial intelligence and this information caught my attention and opened my eyes to look at artificial intelligence (AI) from a whole different perspective.

The Industrial Revolution started around 1760 and was a major technological change, transforming whole countries from an agrarian to a machine-driven culture. One of the central changes in this revolution was the power source: introducing the steam engine to the world. We’re now at the beginning of another fundamental restructuring of the way we live, do business, construct houses and market real estate.

It’s predicted over the next few years that we’ll see robots precisely laying bricks and doing terrain grading work independently guided by GPS and AI technology. 

3D printer construction first came to my attention in 2018, when I read about a company based in Texas building small printer generated houses in 12 to 24 hours. Now, contractors around the world are building walls for homes by adding layers on top of layers of specialized concrete generated by a 3D printer. This is the stuff of science fiction.

The logical outcome of the advanced technology is more construction in a shorter period of time – predicted to be a 50% increase in production. AI catching design flaws, managing material waste and providing a safer job site will add to the rate of production. AI could build so many affordable homes in such a short period of time that it could turn around our housing shortage crisis.

What does this mean for the way buyers search for houses? And will real estate agents go the way of the horse and buggy? I don’t think so. There may be fewer of them, since they will get a lot of help from AI, but the person-to-person contact of building trust, negotiating and guidance can only be achieved with face-to-face meetings and fast available phone and text contacts. 

AI is so smart and it understands complex questions like, “I’m looking for a three-bedroom ranch house near an elementary school on a half-acre,” that buyers will see the available inventory before they make a phone call, without scrolling through dozens of listings online. 

The dreaded closing table will also be streamlined thanks to AI. And although you can’t replace inspectors and attorneys in a real estate transaction, AI will make their jobs easier, make the paperwork more accurate and eliminate delays clearing title and property line disputes.

Change is a challenge. Remember when everyone laughed at the steam engine? Thankfully, we know too much now to laugh at AI, but the future is always confusing and frequently scary. I for one will start paying closer attention to AI real estate stories. So, thanks Ron for recognizing the obscure in real estate marketing and construction and sending it to me. Keep them coming.

Fireplaces: Romance or work?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Let’s assume you live in Florida, anywhere from Tampa to the Florida Keys. It’s unlikely you’ll ever see freezing temperatures.  Even during this past winter, one of the coldest recorded in the state, temperatures may have flirted with freezing, but they never really made it to that point near us. Nevertheless, some homebuyers are requesting from their builders or realtors a home, particularly a high-end home, that includes a wood-burning fireplace. Are you sure about that?

Many homeowners want a wood-burning fireplace in theory, but they rarely want the work that goes with owning one. The romance of a wood-burning fireplace loses its glamour when you have to chop the wood or arrange and pay for the purchase of the wood, stack it, clean the soot and ash and also worry about what may be living in your woodpile. In addition, chimneys need to be cleaned – preferably by a professional fireplace expert, which is not so easy to find in Florida. The firebox also has to be inspected from time to time.

If you’re one of the newly minted billionaires sprouting up around the country, you can indulge your romantic leanings and build a fireplace in every room. Property managers can be hired to take care of every aspect of fireplace ownership, leaving the aesthetics to you. If, however, you can’t afford a full-time manager, it may be time to rethink your options; and there are plenty of them.

Electric fireplaces or gas fireplaces are replacing the relic of the wood-burning fireplace. Most of them also come with heat vents that allow for some warm air flow on chilly nights. These fireplaces need to be professionally installed and can become the focal point of a room. You can also purchase small electric inserts for existing fireplaces or new fireplaces that can be operational in minutes by just plugging into a standard outlet. Amazon sells electric logs that when stacked like wood look surprisingly attractive. Then, of course, there is the old standby of real or electric candles. Take it from me, use the electric ones.

Wood-burning fireplace aficionados are starting to run into municipalities that may have prohibited wood-burning fireplaces. The regulations are largely intended to mitigate environmental health risks, but in areas prone to droughts, fireplaces could create a fire hazard as well. These regulations are typically enforced for new construction properties, leaving homes with existing fireplaces grandfathered in.

Also facing new regulations are condos with wood-burning fireplaces. Condo associations have the right, and indeed the obligation, to inspect fireplaces or have owners provide the association with an annual inspection report. The property rights and safety of all residents in an association where walls and roofs are shared need to be protected.

There is one other drawback to wood-burning fireplaces: animals. Even in Florida, during the winter months, outdoor animals want to keep warm or are looking for a place to build a nest (we once had water rats build a nest in our car’s engine while we were away on a trip). An old friend of mine once had the shock of her life when her husband built a fire after being away for a few weeks, only to find out that a family of raccoons were living in the chimney.

Leave the romance of wood-burning fireplaces to the ultra-rich or the ultra-enthusiastic. I remember those days of black soot and hot ash landing where it should not. My electric candles are looking pretty romantic. Just add a little Frank Sinatra and you’re set.

Selling your home gives you big tax breaks

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

April Fool’s Day is the one day a year when it’s okay to play a friendly trick on a friend. Two weeks later is April 15, Tax Day, and not a good day to play tricks, especially on the IRS.

Most people use tax consultants to prepare their annual tax returns, which, in my opinion, is a very good idea. Tax preparers are schooled in looking for that deduction you may never have thought of; and if you sold your primary home in this tax year you will have a big deduction.

Since the late 1990s, homeowners have been allowed an exemption of up to $250,000 for single filers and $500,000 for joint filers on the profits on the sale of their principal residence. For example, a married couple who bought their home for $400,000 years ago and are now selling it for $850,000 should not owe tax on the sale because their $450,000 gain is covered by the $500,000 exemption.

In order to qualify for this benefit, the seller usually must live in the home for two of the five years preceding the sale. The property must also be the owner’s primary residence, with proof such as a driver’s license, receipt of mail, utility bills, etc. In addition, the capital gains exclusion can be used multiple times throughout your lifetime but generally only once every two years.

If your profit exceeds the $250,000 or $500,000 exemption based on filing status, the remainder of the profit is subject to capital gains tax. However, the law allows the owners of the property to lower their taxes by raising their “cost basis” if they have made capital improvements to the property, thus lowering their tax liability. Capital improvements include kitchen and bath renovations, landscaping, decking and other improvements made during the ownership period. There are other fees that can be deducted to lower your cost basis, including realtor fees related to the sale of the property. 

Couples who have not filed a joint tax return prior to selling their home can still get the benefit of the deduction as long as they meet the IRS ownership and use test of two out of the last five years and file jointly for the year the home is sold.

In order to lower your cost basis and reduce your tax liability, you must be able to prove the capital improvements are legitimate. This involves good record keeping with receipts or credit card statements, but the way to be sure you’re counting every dollar is to consult a tax expert – or, if you’re in the mood, read the IRS statutes online.

There is one more way to reduce your cost basis and that’s a little-known law called “The Cohan Rule.” The Cohan Rule is a legal principle that allows taxpayers to use reasonable estimates to deduct expenses when they lack formal documentation, like receipts, to prove the expenses actually occurred. This rule originated in 1930 when the entertainer George M. Cohan brought a court case involving missing records.

Finally, I am not a CPA or a certified tax consultant. To get accurate advice, please consult one of these professionals. 

Don’t play a trick on yourself before filing your tax return, especially if you sold your primary home last year. Ask for advice, save your receipts and don’t be foolish on April Fool’s Day.

The thaw has begun

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

If you have any friends or relatives north of South Carolina and straight up to the northern environs of Maine, it’s safe to call them and say the temperatures are going up, the snow is melting, and if you listen carefully, you’ll also hear sounds of the “housing thaw.” 

On February 26, a day that will live in the hearts of all mortgage brokers and real estate agents, the mortgage interest rate fell below 6%. 

This was the first time in more than three years, and it could mark an important psychological threshold. Mortgage rates briefly topped 7% last January, but rates have steadily fallen since then. Mortgage brokers discuss the 5% rate zone as the key to getting the market moving. Buyers are starting to recognize that 3% rates aren’t going to happen again and a rate between 5% and 6% is the new norm.

In spite of the fact that economists say it’s unlikely that rates will move substantially from low 6% to high 5%, the fact that it’s moving at all may get that pool of buyers off the sidelines before all of the good properties are snapped up. If this imaginary pool of buyers doesn’t get moving, they’re risking rates going lower, creating more buyer competition and ultimately pushing home prices higher and offsetting the gain of lower rates. Now could very well be the sweet spot for buyers to buy.

Businesses that cater to home sales, like Home Depot, Lowe’s and furniture and appliance stores, are also vested in the real estate market and are watching very carefully for the next step. Any positive economic movement will create new confidence in the real estate market aimed directly at the wannabe homeowners.

Spring is traditionally the season to sell homes, giving families the ability to move over the summer, before school starts. Florida’s market is not geared so much for school enrollment, but the spring season typically generates the most contracts and closings. Part of the reason is potential buyers who are renting during the winter in Florida are looking around and making buying decisions before they leave. 

This year has been slow for both buyers and renters, so I’m anxious to see the sales statistics for April and May to determine if breaking that 6% threshold has any impact on sales.

Before I close this column out, the Bradenton Herald had a story a few weeks ago about where Manatee County transplants are moving from. In 2025, 1,332 New Yorkers exchanged their driver’s licenses in Manatee County, marking a 59% increase from pre-pandemic levels. This was the first time since 2022 that a single state topped the migration list.

Following New York, the top contributors to Manatee County’s new residents came from New Jersey, Illinois and Pennsylvania. 

Even the western states saw significant migration growth to Manatee County. Washington, Idaho and California, (with a 65% rise) are next in terms of high migration to Manatee County.

I wasn’t surprised about California, since my favorite checkout person at the Holmes Beach Publix told me that about six months ago.

Small reductions in interest rates may not sound like they will influence buyers significantly, however, if you do the math, over a 20- or 30-year period, an eighth or a quarter of a percentage point adds up. 

The timing of this rate drop couldn’t be more perfect since demand has been growing for the past few years with low inventory and high rates. However, you will have to listen carefully to hear the cracking of the housing ice. It’s only a whisper now, but pretty soon it could be a roar.

January weather wasn’t the only thing chilly

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

One of the reasons I moved to Florida was because when I’m cold the only thing I can think about is how cold I am. I was really cold in January, but not as cold as the national real estate market, which apparently couldn’t think of anything else either.

In January, national home sales fell 8.4%, the biggest monthly decline since February 2022. Remember that what happens on a national level does not always affect local real estate trends, but there certainly is an influence, particularly when it comes to the overall financial health of the country. A little bit further in this column we’ll look at the Manatee County sales statistics for January, which will be an interesting comparison.

So, why was January so bad? Snowstorms and freezing weather all along the east coast certainly didn’t help; and neither did the erratic economic reports coming out of Washington. Which is too bad since the housing market was starting to show signs of recovery, fueled by a slight drop in mortgage interest rates. The decline came after sales rose in three of the previous four months. Even the surveyed economists were surprised, since they were predicting a much smaller decline of 4.6%.

Although December home sales rose, home prices also rose. In addition, the 30-year mortgage rates are hanging out at just above 6% and making no sign of moving, which is giving buyers another reason to sit back. Lawrence Yun Who is the chief economist for the National Board of Realtors. He indicates that improving affordability should bring buyers back to the market, but it’s not because of the public’s lack of an improving comfort level. Also, home prices continue to rise because of historic low levels of available properties, which is not improving the comfort level of potential buyers either.

In January, the national medium single-family existing home rose to $396,800, a 0.9% increase from last year. Manatee County’s median existing home price in January was $480,495, a very slight decrease from last year.

As far as mortgage rates stand, 6.1% is the current average, which is down from about 6.9% last year. Days on the market are also increasing. Therefore, many sellers are deciding to remove their property from the market rather than cut prices.

It’s time to look at the sales statistics reported by the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee: single-family homes closed 10.8% fewer properties this January compared to last. The median price was $480,495, down 0.1% from last year, and the average sale price was $647,324, down 2.3%. The median time to contract was 58 days, compared to 49 days last year, and the month’s supply of available properties was 4.6 months, with no change from last year. The bright spot was pending sales, which were up 17.4%.

Condos closed 1.7% fewer properties. The median sale price was $305,000, down 9.2%; and the average sale price was $366,887, down 10.1% from last year. The median time to contract was 65 days, compared to 60 days last year; and the month’s supply of available properties was 7.2 months, compared to eight months last year. Pending sales were also up from last year by 3.2%.

The Association of Realtors is sticking by its position that during the last several months the market has settled and everyone is adjusting to the “new normal.” 

A final word about interest rates: 6.1% is not a terrible interest rate. Yes, it’s about double what the average was in 2020, and because of that, we may have created a generation of buyers who expect artificially low interest rates. I’ve said this before, but the likelihood of seeing 3% to 4% interest rates again is about the same as me moving back to the northeast, so it’s time to jump in the market.

Castles in the Sand: Frozen in place

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

For a long time, we’ve been saying that real estate is frozen in place, but on February 2nd it was confirmed by none other than Punxsutawney Phil.

With respect to Phil, the polar vortex is what’s really causing the frigid weather we’ve been experiencing since early January. Furthermore, meteorologists are predicting that the extreme cold spell the eastern part of the country has been experiencing will be extended.

So, how does the arctic air hanging around affect the housing market? The most helpful thing that can happen is the polar vortex keeps pushing down and putting pressure on the northeastern states, driving the homeowners who have been toying with the idea of moving south to finally say, “I’ve had enough of this.” But changes in the weather are only short-term. What the country needs is some long-term permanent programs that will jump-start the housing market and give first-time buyers a foot on the property ladder. 

In an effort to achieve this, the government is looking into a variety of system changes in financing and investing to help stimulate the process and the culture of the housing market. There are ideas being thrown into the pot by the president, Congress, bankers and builders – all aimed at property affordability.

The president offered the first step in his new housing plan by taking measures to ban Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes, easing up on the competition for first-time buyers. He also announced a plan to let Americans tap into their 401(k) retirement plans for a down payment.

Next came mortgage policies, starting with a 50-year mortgage. Sounds crazy? It did to me at first, but it also sounded crazy when we started financing smartphones and long-term loans for our cars, not to mention leasing. Yes, it’s true that you will likely never pay off the 50-year mortgage, but in reality most homeowners don’t pay off a 30-year mortgage, so why not give them the opportunity to build equity and have the pride of ownership?

However, the downside of a 50-year mortgage is increasing the housing shortage even more and pushing prices higher. The same with lowering the mortgage rates: according to the AEI Housing Center analysis, if mortgage rates fall to 4.5%, for example, without an increase in housing supply, home prices would increase by one-tenth over the next three years.

Finally, government officials and builders alike feel that flooding the market with new affordable housing may get first-time buyers into a home but will negatively affect the people that already have a home. The end result of this will be driving down home prices for both new construction and current homeowners.

Therefore, as you can see, there is no quick fix. Whatever happens in the real estate market affects the entire economy, so it has to be tweaked very carefully. Likewise, since all real estate is local – driven by local zoning, environmental and land-use policies – coming up with a national policy will be virtually impossible.

On February 2nd, Phil the groundhog came out of his underground home, saw his shadow and ran right back in. Since Phil is never wrong, we can look forward to six more weeks of cold, cold weather, but will it keep real estate frozen too? Only Phil knows.

Castles in the Sand: People change their minds all the time

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Humans are notorious for changing their minds. It could be as simple as the flavor of ice cream to the color of your new car. But when you’re involved in a real estate transaction, changing your mind is a lot more serious and expensive.

A contract for the purchase of real estate, whether it’s a single-family home or a condo, is generally airtight after all the contingencies have been met. For instance, the buyer is applying for a mortgage and the seller has accepted the sale based on the buyer being approved for the mortgage stipulated in the contract.

This is usually the largest and most important contingency in a real estate contract and is the reason that sellers consider cash transactions more valuable. The buyer’s mortgage approval deadline is stated in the contract; and if it is not met, the contract is void unless the seller grants the buyer more time for approval. If this happens, it’s usually an issue of a title defect rather than financial and generally it can be resolved.

Other contingencies included in most contracts are inspections, like radon and termites. Inspections must be completed by a time certain, as stated in the contract, and if there is a failure during the inspection the buyer has the right to withdraw from the contract.

In Florida, or other states where termites are common, the seller can correct the problem and continue with the sale. However, it is not unusual for the buyer to use a minor issue in the inspection to withdraw from the contract for reasons that have nothing to do with the inspection, without even giving the seller the opportunity to correct the problem, because they just want out.

Buyers are human and are apt to change their minds right up to closing day. If a buyer wants to cancel a contract after the contingencies are satisfied, that may constitute a breach of contract, in which case the seller can return the deposit. Most contracts of sale allow the seller to retain the deposit as liquidated damages. However, it’s not uncommon for buyers go forward with litigation to recover their deposit. Obviously, settling this out of court will save both parties in the transaction stress and money. 

What happens if the buyer finds a defect with the property after closing? This is probably the biggest nightmare situation for everyone, including the brokers who may not have any money at risk but will offer suggestions and try to resolve the situation in an effort to salvage their own reputation.

Property defects discovered after the closing almost always go back to a lack of disclosure. Even if sellers say they know nothing about the problem, it’s difficult for buyers to believe, and it never ends well. I’ve heard of or read about just about any situation, from animals living in the attic or basement without the previous owner knowing to roots blocking the sewer line and not being discovered by an inspector.

Appliances that die the day after closing are difficult to blame the seller for unless the buyer can prove they knew about a problem before closing. It’s also important to coordinate the on and off dates for electricity, especially in the summer when mold forms quickly and refrigerators get warm even faster. I’ve heard about personal items like expensive jewelry left in the house hidden and forgotten, and guns taped under drawers when furniture was being conveyed with the sale.

For the most part, people are honest and are not intentionally trying to kill the contract, but an abundance of honesty and careful inspections can guarantee a smooth transaction. 

And don’t forget the emergency money on the top shelf of the kitchen cabinet on the day you move. That could stretch the bounds of honesty.

Where did my parents’ Florida go?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

In the early ‘70s, my parents moved to the east coast of Florida, inland from Pompano Beach. They bought a brand new two-bedroom, two-bath condo overlooking the pool for about $20,000. They were in heaven to be away from the New York winters and to live in what they perceived as a “fancy” place.

In those days, Florida offered properties for all retirees in all price ranges to enjoy the sunshine and affordable living. However, things have changed a lot in Florida and it’s not your parents’ Florida anymore.

Those of us who live in Florida don’t have to be told how expenses have gone up in the last several years. Insurance, property taxes and HOA fees have all increased. Nevertheless, buyers are still coming just a little more well-heeded then in previous years. There are Florida counties where the income of people moving in from other states in 2022 surpassed that of existing residents, based on the most recent Internal Revenue Service and Census Bureau data. 

Meanwhile, middle-class Florida residents are leaving and looking for a more affordable location. The Carolinas are providing an alternative to Florida, with lower property values and a lower cost of living. 

Even mobile home communities, which were always an alternative for low-income retirees, are getting expensive. Most of them are now owned by corporations that may be buying them for investment development down the road.

The real estate developers are focusing their new construction on the high-end market with more upscale offerings. Lakewood Ranch, the master planned community in Bradenton, has properties ranging from townhouses in the $200,000 range to palatial houses listing at more than $3 million. According to Lakewood Ranch data, home sales grew from 2023 to 2025 in two price categories – $1 million-plus and below $300,000 – and decreased in the ranges in between where middle-class retirees would normally buy.

The influx of wealthier buyers is adding pressure to an already difficult housing market. The average home value in Florida was $372,000 in November – a decline from recent years but a significant increase from 2019 when the average was $246,000. 

Then there is the ultraluxury market in and around Miami. The insanity of this market is totally unrelated to the average person. According to Miller Samuel, an appraisal and consulting firm, there were four real estate transactions above $100 million in 2025. What would my parents think? 

Even the senior living communities in Naples, one of the super high-end housing areas in Florida, are starting at $600,000 and ranging to $9 million. So, if you’re thinking of growing old in a Florida senior care facility, you might have to reassess your plans.

The home pricing betting platforms are also getting very popular. Robinhood and Kalshi are accessible if you’re in the betting mood or just looking for another opinion on buying and selling properties. My opinion is that these platforms can be very dangerous to the average homebuyer who may be getting information based on a national trend and not applicable to their local area.

For sure, my parents would be shocked if they woke up in 2026 and saw the prices on similar two-bedroom, two-bath condos like they bought in 1973. But everything changes, and sometimes it changes too fast. If you’ve lived here for 20 years, you’re sitting pretty, but new retirees to Florida are having sticker shock.

Castles in the Sand: A flipper is more than a pet dolphin

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

If you love dolphins, all you have to do is walk along any beach on Anna Maria Island and you’re sure to see them. But these are not the “flippers” we’re talking about today. Today, we’re talking about house flippers who may not be quite as friendly.

Call it “get rich quick” or call it “house flipping,” the goal is to buy low, invest very low sums of money to clean and renovate and sell high. If you’re lucky enough to do that consistently, you’re a flipper.

It’s certainly not impossible to become a full-time flipper. In 2024, flipping accounted for 7.6% of all single-family and condo sales nationwide. Since then, there has been a decline and flippers are faced with the same lack of inventory as conventional buyers. 

The amount of risk and uncertainty in the flipping business can range from the glory at the top to the failure at the bottom of a real estate transaction.

The worst-case scenario for a flipper is not being able to flip at a price that makes sense and ends up with a reasonable profit. Now, the poor flipper has to not sell and then rent the property, which presents an entirely different set of problems, primarily reducing any potential profit. 

The trick is to identify a home with “good bones” and bad hygiene. Trashing out and cleaning may not be glamorous, but it does the trick. Add a coat of soft gray paint and you’ll be surprised how good the white appliances look when the grime is gone.

So how do you start? Research the market and understand local trends, property values and demand. Wherever you are within the distribution of this newspaper, you’re near the water, and that should be your primary goal. Unfortunately, because of last year’s storms, there have been a lot of houses that were damaged or flooded. I would laser focus on one of those if they haven’t already been snapped up.

Securing financing is next. Traditional lenders frequently hesitate to finance investment properties. Flippers love cash or short-term financing and sellers love prequalifications.

In the flipper’s bible, if there is such a thing, you’ll see something called (ARV), which stands for After Repair Value. This is the potential market value after renovations. The rule is that you should pay no more than 70% of the ARV, minus the estimated repair costs to ensure a sufficient profit margin.

Finally, just like any seller, price competitively and market effectively, preferably working with an experienced local real estate agent.

Since you don’t need a license to be a flipper, you can start immediately. But you do need to comply with all state property sales laws. Do a thorough title search, and even though you’re experienced, you may still need the advice of an engineer or home inspector. 

After last year, anyone with ownership of a property should have insurance – even if you plan on flipping quickly. If you’re lucky enough to make a profit, you will be subject to capital gains taxes since the government doesn’t give investors any capital gains relief. Forming an LLC is not required but is recommended to protect your personal assets from lawsuits that may arise on your investment property.

In the less sophisticated days of television, there was a show called “Flipper”. Flipper became the pet of two young boys who had adventures that kids on Anna Maria Island could only imagine. Flipping houses is not nearly as charming as Flipper the dolphin, but it could be lucrative if done right.

Castles in the Sand: Critical ignoring and crystal balls

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

The best thing that has happened to the real estate vocabulary in recent years is called critical ignoring. Certainly, it’s not just applicable to real estate, but by golly it works.

Critical ignoring comes from the internet, doesn’t everything, and the artificial intelligence that drives it. Essentially, it means you should take everything you read with a grain of salt or totally ignore.

When it comes to real estate statistics reported on a national level, I prefer the ignore option. It’s not that the numbers aren’t correct; they are. It’s just that real estate is all local, and what applies in downtown Boston may have zero relevance on Anna Maria Island.

There was a report I read, right around Christmas, which was extremely broad in its reporting about condo owners facing the worst market since 2012. Across the board, rising homeowner association fees due to higher insurance premiums and maintenance costs are making condominium purchases less affordable. Single-family homes also have higher maintenance and insurance costs, don’t they? Large metro areas are suffering more with a glut of supply weighing on prices.

And good old Florida can never catch a break it seems. Insurance costs and hurricanes are totally spooking buyers, in addition to the Florida condo market taking a major hit since the Surfside collapse – ignoring the fact that Florida is a big state and Surfside is a tiny place. Actually, the laws put in place after Surfside have done a lot to improve condo living in Florida. In spite of all of this, condo owners have gained equity since they purchased. Go figure. 

Sorry, but most of this can be critically ignored. Floridians love condo living and that’s not changing anytime soon. Prices may go up, prices may go down, insurance is always an ongoing conversation, and the cost of maintenance will always increase. 

Now, to the crystal balls about this year’s housing market. The op-ed I read has predicted that mortgage rates will be somewhere between 5.75% and 6% this time next year. Declining rates and increased inventory should spark more home sales, especially if the overall economy perks up. Prices will flatten, but there will not be a significant decline in prices.

Real estate professionals will find themselves working for major companies, with the possibility of large brokerage or real estate holding companies attempting to acquire a prominent homebuilder.

And believe it or not, Netflix’s real estate programs, which I love, will help inspire some young people to consider real estate careers. Now that should not be critically ignored.

Time for the December sales statistics reported by the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 5.6% fewer properties this December than last December. The median sale price was $491,500, down 0.1%, and the average sale price was $653,048, down 3.3%. Median time to contract was 55 days, compared to 56 days last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.3 months, compared to four months last year. 

Condos closed 13% more properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $307,500, down 6%, and the average sale price was $352,068, down 2.7%. Median time to contract was 63 days, compared to 56 days; and the month’s supply of available properties was 6.5 months, compared to 6.9 months last year.

Let’s not critically ignore these numbers. The season is just starting and it’s not critical yet.