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Tag: Louise Bolger

Castles in the Sand: Sunny-side Up

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Last week’s column was a bit of a downer. I’m not saying it wasn’t true, only that real estate sales need a sunnier pathway in order to encourage motion, so let’s see if we can let the sun shine in.

First of all, the fact that homeowners are sitting on more home equity than at any other time in history is not necessarily a bad thing. Not everyone wants to move and many Americans are just as happy to live in their current home atop a mound of equity with a low mortgage rate and wait to retire. Not exactly torture.

Second, the ultra-low interest rates we experienced five years ago gave many homeowners the opportunity of owning a home for the first time. This action could easily come back years from now as the one single thing that turned the United States housing market around.

Finally, between the years 2003 and 2008, mortgage interest rates floated between 6.5% and 5.87%, getting close to where we are now. And guess what? People bought houses every day.

After the third time this year the feds lowered interest rates, the market is finally starting to respond. As of early December, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was hovering at about 6.2%. On December 24th, Freddie Mac gave everyone a Christmas gift, lowering the fixed rate to an average of 6.18%.

There are, however, buyers out there who think they’re entitled to a 3% rate and will refuse to buy unless they get it. I would direct these buyers to Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate history and they’ll see rates as high as 16%, and we didn’t lose the real estate structure of the country.

The housing market has been stuck in low gear for some time now, however, home sales rose in November nationally for the third straight month. These three consecutive months of rising sales is the longest streak since December 2024. In addition, mortgage rates have been falling in recent months, boosting home buying activity. Buyers are taking advantage of the slight improvement in affordability and more would likely jump into the market if mortgage rates fall further.

Florida recorded 17,674 closed sales of existing single-family homes in November, up 3.4% over last year. Condo sales were also up 1.6% in the state, totaling 6,099 sales. Although it’s difficult to transfer the end of year trends into the next year’s spring buying season, the economists are not seeing anything in these sales numbers that give us a reason to be pessimistic as the year turns over.

There’s a lot of demand in Florida waiting to be unlocked as affordability improves – and improvements we do see, if at a snail’s pace. Florida remains a very attractive destination for out-of-staters and the only impediment in the last couple of years has been affordability. All of this offers some hope that the housing market nationally may finally show signs of life in 2026; and I predict Florida will be leading the way. 

If you’re a homeowner who is clinging to your 3% mortgage and come hell or high water you won’t give it up, you need a reality check: those rates aren’t coming back. Don’t sacrifice your family’s happiness and security because you’re frozen in place.

I thought I would end my first column of the new year on the light side. My friend who lives in New York City shared with me something she saw in the window of a liquor store while she was out for her afternoon stroll: “We don’t have flu shots, but we do have wine shots.” So, there it is, it doesn’t get any better than that … Happy New Year.

Financially irrational real estate market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

New Year’s Eve is tradition­ally the night of hope for the new year, resolutions and good wishes. When it comes to the real estate market, 2026 isn’t promising much of a variation from the old year, but hope is eternal and humans are optimistic.

Homeowners are locked in place trapped by their low-interest rate mort­gages designed as a vaccination against recession when the pandemic hit. This is not a new topic; anyone who reads real estate news online or in the paper can find discussions practically every day about why homeowners with high equity and low mortgages won’t move.

There are millions of homeowners who are wealthier on paper than at any time in history. They have record equity, incredi­able low interest rates and many with homes that have appreciated by double digits in only a few years.

So, what’s the problem? You would think they would be running to their local broker to list their home and cash in. The problem is, per Realtor.com, for these owners to buy a typical home in today’s market would require an estimated payment of more than 73% than they currently pay. For most that’s a non-starter; even if they can afford the extra payment, the physiological effect won’t let them budge.

When mortgage rates started falling, almost overnight, to as low as 3%, demand surged for the lower rate to refinance or to purchase. Buyers saw a pathway to purchase their first home or move up home because with lower rates the monthly carrying costs took a nose­dive resulting in more people qualifying for higher mortgages.

With buyers coming out of the wood­work, it didn’t take long for the inventory to get snapped up, pushing prices upward. Builders were attracting buyers so fast the supply chain could not keep up the labor, supplies and zoning changes necessary to meet the overwhelming response.

All of this competition pushed prices up so far that values surged by 25% to 40% in some markets.

Needless to say, homeowners were celebrating their new equity and looking down the road at long-term stability. But if it’s too good to be true, it usually is, and it didn’t take long for inflation to take over, forcing the Feds to move rates in the opposite direction. Within 18 months mortgage rates more than doubled, passing over the 7% mark. This dried up the refinance market and buyers were having trouble living with the shortage of inventory and higher priced properties, along with a doubling of interest rates.

The real estate market froze, but not because of a lack of homes alone. It froze because those who owned homes couldn’t justify leaving them. This is completely the opposite of a healthy market. A healthy market should encourage mobility, opening up space for new home buyers, keeping the cycle going.

The real estate structure needs some creative ideas and one of them is portable and assumable mortgages. At one point we had a fair number of assumable mortgages, but that market is rarely offered anymore. Portable mortgages exist in other countries and would certainly open up the mobility of properties. Also, incentives to downsize, like tax credits and closing cost incentives, could also unlock homes. Whatever it is, someone should take the lead on this, whether it’s lenders or political office holders.

Paying more for less is not in the American DNA so it may take a long time to release millions of homeowners from the mortgage trap.

Happy New Year and best wishes for a prosperous year.

For sale: Haunted house

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Every year I try and write a light column at the end of October about disclosure of what I’ll call “stigma­tized properties.” Last year, I skipped this topic for about three weeks since most of us were in the middle of flood and hurricane cleanup and there was nothing funny about any of it. This year, however, is a totally different story and with a little bit of luck, next year we won’t have any hurricanes to write about – so on to the paranormal.

In most U.S. states, sellers are not legally required to disclose alleged paranormal activity unless they have a history of marketing the property as haunted. However, some states like New York, New Jersey and Massachu­setts have specific laws, and a seller’s disclosure is mandatory if asked directly, since failing to answer truth­fully can have legal consequences. In addition, some states may require disclosure for certain types of deaths, like murder or suicide, regardless of paranormal claims.

The best way to handle a property that may be stigmatized or has a repu­tation for being haunted is to answer a buyer’s question truthfully to the best of your knowledge and ability. Stigma­tized properties can impact their value and could lead to a lower sale price even if there is no proof of paranormal activity, so just like everything else in your home, honesty is the best policy. Also, if you have any concern about paranormal activity in your home or a home you’re interested in buying, check the state’s disclosure laws.

But what about Florida laws regard­ing paranormal activity? Florida does not require sellers to disclose para­normal activity in a home. Florida law mandates the disclosure of “material facts” that affect a property’s value, but it does not consider hauntings, deaths or crimes as material facts legally requiring disclosure. Buyers who may be concerned about such issues must talk to sellers directly, and sellers should be transparent about what they know, if anything, on this topic.

In addition to paranormal activity, Florida law does not require sellers to disclose deaths at the property, in­cluding homicide or suicide. Crimes committed on or near the property also do not need to be disclosed. And nearby sexual offenders do not need to be disclosed. This information is available to buyers by checking public databases or asking their attorney to do so.

Basically, Florida requires disclosure of material defects like roofs, electri­cal systems, appliances, consistent flooding, hidden mold and a variety of other material defects that could affect the value of a property.

Paranormal activity, no matter how much it may be a reality to some people, is not considered a material de­fect by the state of Florida. And if some of those crazy Northeastern states want to make laws about paranormal activity in properties for sale or include it on their disclosure forms, well, best I don’t comment on their decisions.

I think it would be a great year to dress up for Halloween and enjoy the fantasy of the holiday. If you happen to see a ghost or poltergeist, just remember they’re not a material defect, no matter how real they look. Always answer questions about your home truthfully and you’ll be fine. Happy Halloween.

Mortgage rates: How did we get here?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

On Sept. 17, when the Feds lowered the benchmark rate, I thought, about time. Although the ¼ point reduction wasn’t enough to bring buyers out of the closet, it was the Feds’ promise of two more rate reductions before the end of the year that for a fleeting moment put a smile on my face, but maybe a bit too soon.

Borrowers who have been waiting for relief from high rates might have to keep waiting. Just to be clear, mortgage rates aren’t set by the Fed, so unfortunately, don’t bet on any major drops soon. For a brief moment in time, the average rate on a standard, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage drifted down to 6.26%. This was the lowest level in nearly a year, then a week later edged back up to 6.3%. Now we’re hearing that it’s not expected to change much going forward.

The Mortgage Bankers Association recently estimated that mortgage rates would actually increase to 6.5% by the end of the year – what? Why is this happening? While anxious homebuyers are watching the Fed, what they should be watching is the bond market and treasuries in particular.

The big boys on Wall Street are watch­ing the long-term bond yields, which have been drifting lower for several reasons. Among them is the expectation that the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates but also raise the risks of a recession. One big reason that home loan rates have been high in recent years is that banks have been buying fewer mortgage bonds. I don’t know about you, but my head just exploded.

Meanwhile the average homebuyer just wants to get their life moving again. This is what you get when half the country refinances to a 2-3% mortgage – housing gridlock.

There’s an interesting story I read in early September about the danger of having an ultra-low-rate mortgage, so here goes: Once upon a time, there lived a nice young couple with two adorable little girls close to the beach in Florida. Even though their life seemed like a fairy tale, it wasn’t, and they decided to divorce. Sad as this was, their story became sadder still when they realized they couldn’t sell their home and afford to live separately near their children. And this is where it got complicated.

This couple, like many others in the country, took advantage of rock bottom mortgage rates in 2020 at roughly 2%. This was, of course, a good financial plan at the time, however, now that they are divorced, they are experiencing the “lock-in effect.” Basically, homeowners staying in place and not moving because they don’t want to give up their low interest mortgage creates a complicated lifestyle for the couples and the children. This couple has decided to both live on the same property, he in what they call the “beach bungalow” and she in a 19-foot Airstream trailer in their yard. Both have access to both properties, and the children are traded back and forth. And other ex-spouses are also finding a way to keep their mortgage by leaving the kids living in the house with the parents rotating in and out.

With the interest rates still high and the shortage of homes pushing prices up, it looks like couples like these will have this fractured living arrangement for a while. It’s a sad state of affairs when the only reason you talk to your ex-spouse is because you have a 2% mortgage. How on Earth did we get here?

What are capital gains?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

I’m always surprised when I talk to people who have owned a home for maybe decades but have no clue what their tax responsibility will be if they sell that property. No one wants to think about giving money to the federal government so they don’t, but not preparing for the day you sell your home could be one of the biggest mistakes of your financial life.

Let’s start with what exactly a capital gain is. Capital gains is a tax on the profit you make from an asset such as stocks, real estate or other investments. For the purpose of this column, we’re going to talk about capital gains on real estate. Since not all real estate is created equal, it’s important to define your real estate holding, with the most standard ones being a primary home, secondary home or investment property.

Secondary homes and investment properties are best discussed with tax preparers who specialize in this area. However, most of us own a home that we live in, called our primary residence, and the federal government has tax exclusions available to homeowners when they sell their primary home. This doesn’t mean you should not seek out professional advice.

Since 1997, homeowners can reduce taxes on the sale of their primary prop­erty that you have owned for two out of the five years leading up to the sale. The IRS allows single taxpayers to exclude $250,000 of gain and married taxpayers filing jointly to exclude $500,000. According to LendingTree, American households are sitting on $34.5 trillion in home equity in the first quarter of 2025. A good portion of these funds will be faced with tax bills upon sale of the property, so it’s vital that homeowners understand their potential tax liability.

There is a way to further reduce the capital gains on your primary home by adjusting the basis of your home. Your home’s basis is generally calculated by adding the cost of capital improvements to the price you paid when you acquired your home. For instance, if you replaced your roof or remodeled your kitchen, those costs are considered capital improvements, and should be added to the price you paid for your house, thus reducing your capital gains liability.

There are two other ways to reduce your capitals gains liability but they will only appeal to a small percentage of homeowners. If you can afford to finance the sale of your home, that will save you capital gains. Or converting your property to a business property will give you the ability to dispose of the property via a 1031 like-kind exchange at a future date.

There is an act introduced by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene identified as “No Tax on Home Sales Act” (HR 4327). The bill aims to eliminate federal capital gains taxes on the sale of primary residences. Keep in mind if you reside in a state that has state capital gains requirements, you would still be responsible for paying capital gains based on your state’s requirement. States like Florida without a state tax will pay no capital gains on the sale of a primary home. President Donald Trump has taken an interest in this bill, which his administration considered in July.

Study up on capital gains if you’re within a few years of selling your primary home. Hopefully, you kept all of the receipts that would be considered a capital improvement, and start thinking about the capital gains you may be heading for.

Finally, meaningful declining mortgage rates

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

The Federal Reserve finally graced us with a lower interest rate bone on Sept. 16 that should make everyone happy. The reason this ¼ point reduction is important is that the Federal Reserve all but promised two more rate reductions before the end of the year.

Nevertheless, there are homeowners with low-rate mortgages who are still reluctant to sell and move on as much as they may want to. A quarter point or even a half point is just not enough encouragement for them to give up a once-in-a-lifetime 3% mortgage. So, the market may continue to be locked up with prices still pushing up for those properties that come on the market, and there aren’t too many of them.

However, there are still benefits to modest lower rates, especially for a first-time borrower, enough to qualify many buyers at the lower rate to be approved for financing. Here on Anna Maria Island and all of the other coastal communities in the area, including our neighbor, Cortez, buyers in these areas are less affected by mortgage rates. Therefore, the market for high-end properties will be less influenced by mortgage rates than by the overall economy.

Many if not most high-end buyers are all cash and even if they decide on a mortgage to free up more cash, they will likely not decide on buying because of a quarter or even a half point reduction. They’re eyeing the health of the general economy and the position of the lawmakers, particularly in Congress, to business and the stock market.

Nevertheless, a healthy real estate market generally is good for all of the real estate market. There is a trickle-up effect of a robust lower-end market positively impacting all price points in the marketplace.

August may be one of the slowest real estate months of the year, but sales are made nonetheless. These are the sales statistics for August reported by the Real­tor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single family homes closed 5.7% more properties this year compared to last August. The median sale price was $467,640, down 5.3%, and the average sale price was $665,577, up 9.1%. The median time to sale was 101 days compared to 103 days last year, and the new pending sales were up 16.7%. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.6 months compared to 3.9 months compared to last year.

Condos closed 7.0% fewer properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $291,250, down 11.7%, and the average sale price was $354,958, with 8% fewer properties compared to last year. Median time to sale was 120 days this year compared to 139 days last year. New pending sales were 213 sales compared to 175 sales last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 6.4 months compared to 5.7 months last year.

According to the Realtor As­sociation, there is modest growth and stability in the single-family market, with the condo market down. Single family homes continue to be competi­tive, and the condo market is becom­ing more and more buyer friendly.

Will the Federal Reserve move the needle on more rates as indicated or will it just be more of the same old same old? The outcome is evolving, so stay tuned.

Mortgage fraud and hurricanes

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

You might not think that mortgage fraud and hurricanes have much in common. But if you get caught in a mortgage fraud, it could end up being the biggest hurricane you’ve ever seen.

There have been several stories recently in the news about mortgage fraud. This has been a long-running issue in the housing industry and now the Justice Department is getting serious about investigating.

But what is mortgage fraud? Mortgage fraud or mortgage scams are committed when someone who is involved in the process of obtaining a mortgage loan from a lender is deliberately deceitful and fraudulently misrepresents information that the lender relies upon when they agree to fund, insure and/or mortgage the property.

Frequently there is more than one party to a mortgage fraud or scam, among them, buyers or sellers of residen­tial property; buyers or sellers of com­mercial property; property investors; real estate agents; closing attorneys; property appraisers; escrow agents; home repair companies; and mortgage brokers.

Since mortgage rates have increased, buyers are motivated to get the best rate possible. Lenders typically offer better terms on mortgage rates for a primary residence with a higher mortgage ratio for a primary residence rather than a second home. For example, the down payment for a primary residence can be as low as 3% to 5%, compared to 10% to 20% for a second home and even higher for investment properties.

Many homeowners commit mortgage fraud simply to ensure they are able to purchase the property they want, by misrepresenting, omitting or otherwise telling lies about their financial infor­mation to qualify for a loan.

A term called “asset rental” becomes mortgage fraud when an applicant for a loan rents assets from another person or entity. Borrowing these as­sets is meant to inflate the borrower’s worth just long enough for them to be approved for the loan. Once approved, the assets are returned to whomever or from wherever they were received.

Inflating appraisals is another fraud common in an increasing equity market. The appraisal is inflated to make the property value appear more than it actu­ally is, tricking the lender into approving a larger mortgage than appropriate.

We are dead center in hurricane season and in Cortez where I live, we have had more than our share of hurricanes and flooding since last year. The fishing village and businesses along Cortez Road including Slicker’s and Foxy’s in particu­lar have suffered. Now that they are back in business, let’s hope they won’t be hit again. We need small businesses and the restaurants in the village to continue the way of life that makes this area unique and rare in Florida.

On a personal note, the condos where I live on the Cortez peninsula also experienced 4 feet of water in the first event and multiple tornadoes in the second event. We lost about half our landscaping and had over five units that incurred so much damage they were unlivable for months. The expense to rebuild mostly came out of resident’s personal funds or as­sociation funds. Another reminder to homeowners is that insurance rarely covers all storm related repairs.

No one wants to live through that again, so stay safe and be smart.

Signs of a real estate turnaround

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Did you hear it? Did you hear buyers and sellers, and, of course, real estate professionals slightly exhal­ing the breath they have been holding for over a year now?

There are definite signs that we might start seeing a turnaround in the real estate market, although based on the July sales statistics for Manatee County, we really don’t see it here. You could argue there is a leveling off but certainly nothing to get excited about.

Across the country, however, the National Association of Realtors is report­ing a definite uptick of the market. Sales of existing homes rose unexpectedly in July, raising hopes that the stalled housing market is improving and setting up for a busy fall. Home sales nationally were up 2% from the prior month, which is only a slight gain, but a gain nonetheless.

Manatee County is still showing a decline in the number of properties sold and a decline in the median sale price as well. The inventory of available single family homes in Manatee County in July was 4.8 months, compared to last July’s availability of 3.9 months – a substantial increase. The national median existing home price in July was $422,400, while Manatee County’s median single-family sales price was $489,900.

Mortgage rates have edged down to their lowest level of the year. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined last month to 6.58%. The hope here is that if the recent decline continues, it could set the state for a better-than-expected fall selling season.

In addition, the Federal Reserve has sent strong messages that rates could be cut. This in conjunction with inventory rising and prices dropping could open the door for first-time and marginal buyers. The Sunbelt, specifically Texas and Florida, have led the nation in the decline in prices.

Buyers are getting more leverage in making offers and choosing a property. However, first-time buyers are still not out of the woods. First-time buyers accounted for 28% of purchases in July. That was down from 30% in June and 29% in July of last year. If the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declines to 6% or below, we will finally see the first-time buyers coming back. We need first-time buyers, even first-time investors to spur the market above them.

Just for the fun of it, I read about a survey of the most expensive neighbor­hoods in the United States compiled by Zillow. Out of the top 10 most expensive neighborhoods, seven of them were in Florida and three were in California. The number one spot went to Coral Gables Estates in Coral Gables, Florida running over Beverly Hills, California. The second spot was Port Royal in Naples, Florida and the third spot was Old Cutler Bay, Florida.

And since we’re talking about Florida high-end listings, Miami’s upper end properties are trying a new tack. They are delisting their properties, not removing them from the market, but delisting, which is not the same thing. About half the sellers in this category are taking a pause until later in the year, probably around November. They believe the market will be more favorable to buyers at this time and also hopefully building a competitive edge since everyone wants something they can’t have. We’ll see if the psychology of this works, but it’s an interesting step either way.

So as we all look forward to the fall and the positive expectations we’re hearing, most of us are all just waiting to exhale.

Are we stuck in place?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

I wrote a column that came out on Aug. 20 talking about moving trends around the country focusing on Florida and Manatee County. This week I’m going to talk about how mobility around the country is stalled and the effect on the economy.

Just to be clear, moving trends are where people are moving to and are separate from how many people are actu­ally moving. As far as Florida, there is a 2% annual growth rate over the past five years. Manatee County is growing as well with a steady stream of new residents pushing into eastern Manatee buying much of the new construction.

However, as much as we may be grow­ing with incoming residents, most of the country is experiencing a slowdown in relocations. In the 1950s and 1960s, 20% of Americans would move each year. There was a slowing down after this because the population was aging and that generation tended to move less. By 2019, the year before COVID-19, 9.8% of Americans moved. In 2023, only 7.8% of Americans moved, the low­est rate since U.S. Census records began in 1948, and 2024 has held steady.

American workers have always been willing to relocate for better job opportu­nity and young college graduates have also been willing to move for the same reason. I worked in the relocation end of real estate in the early and mid-1990s for almost 10 years and it was a thriving business, with several large relocation companies offering their services to corporations. Now, however, relocation packages are less generous, and potential employees can’t afford to close that financial gap and accept a job requiring a relocation. In addition, most households need two incomes now, making relocation for one member of the household more complicated.

So, what’s happening now, why are more people stuck in place in their homes and in their careers? We all know the housing market has stalled with the exception of pockets and areas that still thrive. Because of this, homeowners are in homes that are too small for them and in jobs that aren’t providing upward mobility opportunities.

Young people just entering the work force can’t afford a home and some even struggle with rent. Existing homeowners may have a low percentage mortgage and are not willing to increase that monthly expense and move up and older generations can’t find buyers for their family homes, depriving them of a much-needed downsize.

In the not-too-distant past through the 2010s, a median-income family who bought a median-priced home spent 30% or less of their earnings on housing costs according to Redfin. That housing cost was 39% last year.

None of this is good news for the economy. Corporations need new blood and new ideas and not being able to recruit the next generation into these jobs stag­nates their business. And young employees need the experience and upward career track to move on with their lives.

Sept. 16-17 is the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. Reuters has surveyed economists who are mostly in agreement that there will be a drop in interest rates in September and another one before the end of the year. So, September is the month to watch; if it happens, the stock market will love it and so will first time-home buyers.

We definitely need something to unclog the bottleneck in the real estate market. If we can get those first-time buyers in it will gradually trickle up the real estate ladder and get the much-needed mobility the country needs.

Homeownership in the golden years

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Back in June, I wrote a column asking, “Are you tired of homeown­ership?” focusing on renting versus owning. Well, it now appears that plenty of people are tired of homeownership, primarily in the golden years of life.

The country is aging and so is the baby boomer generation and now they’re asking themselves, is this house really worth it? In my generation, if you didn’t own your own home you hadn’t evolved to adulthood and made a success of your life, or as my mother would say, “Renting is like throw­ing your money away.”

A lot of senior citizens, most of whom have been long-term homeowners, are choosing to rent instead. Developers have certainly taken note of this and are building single-family home communities for people 55 and older all over the country. The attraction is maintenance-free living while still having your personal space and living among people with similar interests. Also, renting always has in its favor the ability to pick up and move if you don’t like your neighbors or want closer access to family members.

In addition, the sale pitch for homeowner­ship has flipped. Younger homeowners had an interest and a need to build equity in order to move on to larger homes to ac­commodate a growing family. With no more kids to house and space for them to run around, why do you need the four-bedroom, three-bath home anymore? Most people also probably don’t need to build equity either at a certain point in their life.

According to 2023 Census Bureau data, the fastest-growing group of renters are those 55 and older. In addition, the share of renters 65 and older rose 30% in the past decade, according to a recent study by Point2Homes, a residence rental platform.

It appears that it’s a concept whose time has come with the aging of the Baby Boomers. Not all of them want to go into life plan communities and even fewer want to live with adult children. Keep your eye out for new communities that can also offer luxury apartments if you’re starting to think along those lines.

Time for July sales statistics published by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.

Single family homes in Manatee County closed 9% lower this July compared to last July. The median sale price was $489,900, down 1.8%, and the average sale price was $631,195, down 4.5%. The median time to closing was 102 days this year compared to 100 last year. New listings were down 2.9% and the month’s supply of available properties was 4.8 months compared to 3.9 months last year.

Condos closed 10.7% fewer properties this July compared to last year. The median sale price was $320,000, down 2.7% and the average sale price was $329,947, down 6.9%. The median time to closing was 111 days compared to 121 days last year. New listings were down 11.3% and month’s supply of available properties was 7 months compared to 5.6 last year.

Need I remind you, we’re in the middle of hurricane season with the first Atlantic named hurricane last week. Not much hap­pens during hurricane season even in a good market, so it’s not surprising the market is quiet, to say the least. That said, there does appear to be some stability setting in with a slight uptick in all sectors in Manatee.

So, if you’re tired of fixing the air condi­tioning and cleaning the gutters, it may be time to unload the albatross you now call your home. Don’t worry about what my mother says, she’s not in a position to judge anymore and even she would probably admit that pulling weeds is not a good use for your free time.

Americans on the move

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Americans have always moved around. Going back to the original settlers who first landed on the eastern coast of the country, everyone was looking for adventure and opportunity. Not much has changed; hundreds of years later, we’re all still looking for the golden ring.

According to relocation company Move­Buddha’s 2025 Moving Trends Report, Americans are still on the move, only now they’re looking for affordability, space and a better work-life balance. MoveBuddha analyzed over 55,000 searches on its website to determine where people are planning to move this year to date.

The most popular domestic destination for relocation in the first six months of 2025 is Conway, South Carolina, with four times as many people seeking to move in compared to those wanting to move out. In fact, since 2023, South Carolina has dominated interstate move searches. Conway surpassed its neighbor, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina which topped the list in the first quarter of the year.

South Carolina ranks number one for the move-in compared to move-out numbers, with 206 move-ins compared to 100 move-outs. New Jersey, California and New York have received the highest number of outbound inquiries, indicating that these states are more likely to lose residents in the future.

Moving trends are pointed toward affordability and quality of life, favoring states known for low home prices, less tax burden and Sunbelt climates. Certainly, Florida scores high points for all of these items in addition to a thriving job market and a business-friendly environment and lack of personal income tax.

In 2025, Florida’s population is estimated to be around 23.8 million with a growth rate of 2% annually over the past five years, making it the fastest growing state in the country. Florida is still growing; however, the growth rate may slow down in the coming years primarily because of housing affordability. Because of this, the growth areas could shift, and the infrastructure needs will likely expand.

So how does Manatee County measure up in the ever-changing Florida landscape? In 2024, Manatee County saw a significant influx of new residents, particularly from other parts of Florida and the Northeast, including the New York metropolitan area. This growth has led to increased development and pressure on the county’s infrastructure and resources.

Development has expanded from the coastal areas eastward into the more rural parts of the county – Lakewood Ranch, Parrish, as well as Palmetto and Ellenton. All areas of the county including coastal communities are experiencing rapid growth with new housing communities sprouting out of the ground where farms and ranches previously existed.

Manatee County is actively reviewing and amending its Land Development Code (LDC) and Comprehensive Plan to manage growth and development, particularly concerning future development. I’m skepti­cal how much real change these reviews will achieve since privately-owned land is sacrosanct and will be difficult for the county to control the usage of as long as it is within zoning regulations.

So, there will be some serious fights ahead with developers and government. But in a popular county with a population of 385,571 at last count, 244 sunny days on average and an average temperature of 73 degrees, 150 miles of coastline and of course zero snowfall, it will be hard to keep people away.

Few of us stay living in the same house, on the same street, in the same community and the same state for all of our lives. This movement keeps the economy healthy and the populations creative; it’s in our DNA and not likely to change.

What investors are eyeing now

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

The old expression “follow the money” can be applied to several different as­pects of life. Sometimes it’s as simple as tracking trades in the stock market and sometimes following the money can disclose corruption in government at all levels. But for the sake of this column, we’ll follow the real estate money – and it’s taking a new, surprising turn.

As we briefly discussed last week, the housing market, with some exceptions, is slow all over the country. The much-anticipated spring selling season has become a complete dud and everyone in the industry is pinning their hopes on a large interest rate cut in September.

Nevertheless, single-home investors are alive and well and are dominating the real estate market so far this year. The interesting thing is the profile of investors has changed significantly. Previously, investment buyers were predominantly large private equity firms, however, the majority of buyers for these properties now are small investors; small investors are defined as owners with 100 or fewer properties.

According to Cotality, a property analytics firm, so far in 2025, investors have made up about 30% of purchases of both existing and newly built single-family homes, the highest share on record. In addition, in the first half of the year, small investors made up about 25% of investment home purchases, while large investors accounted for about 5%.

The question is, why is this happening? Obviously, small investors are not deterred in spite of high prices and high interest rates; they still see a pathway to maximize their investment. Smaller investors also have the ability to take more risk since they are making their own decisions without the oversight of a board of directors. It also works for them since so many traditional homebuyers have stepped back waiting for some signal that the market is improving.

Based on what is going on with the condo market across the country, some of those investment buyers would be smart to take a look at advantageous buying options on condo properties. Condo sellers haven’t faced a market this weak in more than a decade. Prices are down, supply is up and sellers often feel lucky to get an offer.

This is particularly true in the south and naturally, Florida condos – which play a major role in our housing market – are being impacted the most. The Florida condo market accounts for 16% of all home sales compared with just 10% of home sales nationwide. Coastal condos, as we know, are hurting the most as home insurance and new safety regulations have increased HOA fees.

All of this is true and there is no denying it. However, although I don’t have statistics to prove my theory, I do believe the east coast of Florida is suffering more with condo sales than the west coast. This, I believe, is a reflection of the Surfside build­ing collapse in 2021 and also the age of the buildings and the deferred maintenance on so many of the oceanfront properties. I hear much less about condos in our area failing the milestone structural inspections mandated by the state and ones that have appeared to be on a smaller scale.

Even though single-family homes are selling at a stronger pace than condos, remember, Florida loves condo living – it’s why people came here. Certainly, marketing a strong, storm-survived condo building will be beneficial to your sale and of course should be on your listing information.

Follow the money, and the money is with small investors. Watch what they’re buying and keep an eye on those condos.

The property closing dance

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

There are all kinds of issues that can arise between signing a contract for sale and the actual closing. Realtors always say don’t spend your commis­sion ‘til the check is in your hand, and that is good advice.

The first thing as both a seller and buyer you should do if the buyer has a mortgage contingency is to get a full prequalification of the buyer’s financial position and their ability to get a mortgage. The next stumbling block is the property appraising, again if there is a mortgage contingency. Lenders will not loan money for a property that does not have the value that was agreed upon between the buyer and seller. If this happens, a compromise can be reached by the buyer upping their down payment or the seller reducing the price of the home.

The dreaded home inspection applies to all sales and is where everyone in the transaction holds their breath. Licensed inspectors are checking primarily for structural damage to the property, wood destroying organisms and mold. In addition, home inspectors also check systems including septic, electrical, plumbing, heating and air conditioning and appliances. Frequently issues that come up in a home inspection are the result of deferred maintenance.

Usually, an agreement can be made be­tween buyer and seller to either repair the defect or to give the buyer the funds to do the repairs. However, if an agreement can’t be reached, the transaction is canceled and the parties go their separate ways. It’s not uncommon for sellers to obtain their own home inspection at the time the property is placed on the market as an enhanced marketing tool and a heads up for sellers if there are potential problems.

The final step prior to closing is purchasing title insurance. There are two types of policies: One is the owner’s policy, which protects the owner if there are any future title issues, and the other is the lender’s policy protecting the lender, required if you are getting a mortgage. The premium for title insurance is a one-time fee issued only after the title company has conducted a search of the public records and cleared the title for any liens or restrictions that would affect ownership.

After you’ve finished the closing dance, the closing paperwork will be concluded, the deed recorded and the new owner usually walks away with the keys to the property and takes possession immedi­ately. Like every aspect of a property sale, it sounds more complicated than it is. There are a variety of professionals along the way to help and advise you, and the majority of the time everything goes smoothly.

A final note about the national sales statistics for June reported by the National Association of Realtors. The number of properties sold were at a nine-month low, completely decimating the spring sales season. However, sale prices rose to $435,300, a record in data going back to 1999. As a comparison, Manatee County single-family home median home sale price for June was $440,000, down 15.2% from last June.

With the home prices high and interest rates not moving, buyers are sitting back and not making purchasing decisions. The one glimmer of hope is a possible rate cut in September at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

Meanwhile, if you are fortunate enough to be in contract on a property, be aware of all the pitfalls that can creep up before you get to the closing table. And if you’re not, chill out at the beach.

Why aren’t we a boomtown?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Looking for a boomtown? Then look in the South. Eight of the top 10 U.S. metro areas ranking as boomtowns are in the South; five are in Florida. But there’s not one in Manatee or Sarasota counties or in Tampa – how could that be?

Let’s start with how LendingTree, which determined what a boomtown is, came up with its conclusion. They grouped 100 of the largest metros across eight unique metrics grouped into three categories – people and housing, work and earnings and business and economy.

So if you live in one of the metros that has a lot of housing available but not a lot of earnings, you’ll lose points. Same with employment; if you live in a metro where the workforce is increasing or the annual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is increas­ing, you’ll get an increase in points.

Since Manatee, Sarasota and Tampa had their big surge during COVID, that is probably the reason why those metros didn’t make the top 10. We may still be ahead of the growing metros in all of the categories analyzed in numbers and dollars, but we’ve obviously leveled off.

The analysis points out that the three largest U.S. metros, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, ranked 89th, 84th and 94th respectively out of the top 100. It doesn’t mean that New York real estate is declining or that the restaurants are reducing their menu prices and no one is opening a business, it just means that those segments of the economy have leveled off and aren’t growing as fast as other smaller metros.

These are the rankings of the top 10 boomtowns around the country starting with number one: Austin, Texas; Orlando, Florida; North Port, Florida; Nashville, Tennessee; Cape Coral, Florida; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Charleston, South Carolina; Lakeland, Florida; Deltona, Florida; and Denver, Colorado.

Austin also came in number one in LendingTree’s last boomtown survey because of GDP growth and one of the highest increases in housing units. Orlando and North Port, Florida ranked second and third basically for the same increase in GDP and housing units.

On to the June sales statistics published by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 3.2% fewer properties compared to last June. The median sale price was $440,000, down 15.2%, and the average sale price was $583,447, down 20.8%. The median time to contract was 56 days compared to 57 days last year and new listings increased by 2.9%. The month’s supply of properties was 5.2 months compared to 4 months last year.

Condos closed 5.3% fewer properties compared to June of last year. The median sale price was $312,900, down 9.2% and the average sale price was $333,877, down 19.8%. The median time to contract was 68 days compared to 73 last year and new listings were up 5.3%. The month’s supply of available properties was 7.4 months compared to 5.8 months last year. A 6-month supply of available properties is always considered a normal market.

Interestingly, cash sales are down in both sectors 18.1% for single-family and 7.7% for condos.

I have a gut feeling that all potential buyers and sellers in Manatee County are holding their breath waiting to get on the other side of hurricane season, hopefully in one piece before any decisions are made.

So what’s the draw of the South that keeps people moving here? The top of the list is more affordable housing, lower cost of living and more job opportunities. We’re also seeing a chain reaction; the more friends and family move South, others follow. I’m bullish on the continued growth of the South and you should be too. You don’t have to live in a boomtown to know you’re better off.

Disasters may have silver lining

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

Last week we talked about the future restoration and look of Cortez after the storms and after the county’s purchase of the Seafood Shack property. This week we’ll cover an emerging trend in the country where communities that have been struck by a disaster are frequently rebuilding richer and more exclusive – sound familiar?

Natural disasters can be galvanizing for a community where people come together to help neighbors and share information about contractors, painters, debris removal and just about anything else. It also presents an opportunity for developers and investors to swoop in and leave their mark on the area.

Homeowners who have received government aid and insurance payouts are rebuilding sturdier homes and meeting updated building codes. In addition to adding another layer of storm protection in the rebuilt homes, homeowners also have the opportunity to remodel damaged areas. This will ultimately translate into a more valuable and marketable property.

Unfortunately, there are low-income homeowners who have more problems navigating the bureaucratic procedures to file for disaster aid and may not have personal funds to close the gap until the funds are available. Also, on Anna Maria Island, longtime residents with beachfront property handed down through families frequently did not carry homeowner’s insurance since the premiums were higher than the value of the building. Many of these cottages and older one-level homes have been sold to developers for the land value. Renters of course can get evicted or choose to move from damaged properties and are facing higher costs and a short supply of rentals.

What this means for Anna Maria Island and Cortez is a change in the profile of the communities. The slow pace of living in these communities is changing, replacing an Old Florida vibe with a jazzier vibe and new, larger homes capable of entertaining family get-togethers and weddings.

Many of these properties are owned by investors or investor groups and are designed for renting and although Anna Maria always had many properties that were available for rent, it still maintained the quality of Island life. Many islanders now fear the Island will never be the same.

A good example of how a Category 5 storm changed a community in Florida is Hurricane Michael, which hit the Pan­handle in 2018. Panama City had an older, slightly tattered downtown area which has been restored with trendy restaurants and boutiques and an increasing popula­tion. Brokers specializing in waterfront properties say wealthy buyers are arriving in growing numbers, raising the economy and value of properties considerably.

While we were talking hurricanes, which I swore I wouldn’t do, I found some interesting statistics from the FSU Florida Climate Center. Starting with the Great Mi­ami Hurricane in 1926 through Milton in 2024, there have only been three Category 5 hurricanes, nine Category 4 hurricanes and 10 Category 3 hurricanes. Don’t get too comfortable with these numbers since the one-two punch of Helene, a Category 4, and Milton, a Category 3, did an incredible amount of damage prior to making landfall compounded with a 4-foot storm surge.

Nevertheless, populations have increased in three of the most severely hit Florida communities. Andrew in Miami was a Category 5, Charley in Charlotte County was a Category 4 and Ian in Lee County was a Category 4 – all increased their populations substantially within a three-year period after the storm.

I’m standing by my prediction from last week about the value of properties in Cortez. I also believe that Anna Maria Island will enjoy an increase in property values as well. You may not like the new vibe, but you may really enjoy the increasing trends in value.