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Tag: Castles in the Sand

Hidden issues in your future home

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

You finally found the home of your dreams. Now you need to be certain that your dream won’t turn into a nightmare.

Hiring a home inspector will probably be the best money you spend during the purchasing process. An inspector is looking for hidden issues that the future owner may not have noticed, as well as the physical structure, from the roof to the foundation. The inspection takes between two and four hours and in Florida will cost the buyer in the range of $650 for a 2,000-square-foot single-family house. Other inspections, like termites, pool, mold and radon, would be additional charges. There are 35 states that require home inspectors to be licensed, and Florida is among them.

Home inspections are visual inspections only, not invasive. Inspectors are thorough and it’s unusual for them to miss something, but if they do miss a minor item, something non-structural, they frequently will take responsibility for the repair. If there is a significant issue or something breaks during the course of the inspection, inspectors will likely turn it over to their insurance company.

As the buyer, you have a vested interest in the outcome of the inspection, so it’s important to attend the inspection. Walk through the home with the inspector, ask questions and verify that the inspector runs all the appliances through a cycle. You’ll learn a lot about your future house. If there is a problem or something that needs to be replaced, the inspector can give you an idea of the cost and the timeline.

Florida is “condo land” and you may think an inspection is not required. That’s something you should rethink. The cost of a new refrigerator (because you didn’t notice it was running warm) would cost more than the inspector.

Now it’s time to check the February sales statistics reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.

Single-family home sales were up 10% from last February. The median sale price was $489,634, up 2.9% from last year. The average sale price was $673,021, up 2.5%. The median time to contract was 65 days, compared to 46 days last year. The months’ supply of available properties was 4.8 months, compared to 4.9 months last year.

Condo sales were down 18.7% from February of last year. The median sale price was $311,995, down 2.5%. The average sale price was $369,085, up 3.3%. The median time to contract was 67 days, compared to 51 days last year. The months’ supply of available properties was 7.5 months, compared to 8.3 months last year.

Even though condo sales were substantially down, I feel the extreme cold weather in the northeast and in Florida discouraged the typical condo buyer from moving forward. However, single-family homes are showing a serious recovery this month.

Cash sales were up 6% for single-family home buyers and up 7.4% for condo buyers. These strong increases, particularly in the condo market, could indicate activity for investors and second home buyers.

Home inspections are important to the real estate transaction and should never be waived. Every repair required in owning a home is super expensive, not to mention a nightmare, so be sure to know ahead of closing what you can expect. Negotiate accordingly, budget for unexpected repairs and you’ll sleep soundly.

The thaw has begun

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

If you have any friends or relatives north of South Carolina and straight up to the northern environs of Maine, it’s safe to call them and say the temperatures are going up, the snow is melting, and if you listen carefully, you’ll also hear sounds of the “housing thaw.” 

On February 26, a day that will live in the hearts of all mortgage brokers and real estate agents, the mortgage interest rate fell below 6%. 

This was the first time in more than three years, and it could mark an important psychological threshold. Mortgage rates briefly topped 7% last January, but rates have steadily fallen since then. Mortgage brokers discuss the 5% rate zone as the key to getting the market moving. Buyers are starting to recognize that 3% rates aren’t going to happen again and a rate between 5% and 6% is the new norm.

In spite of the fact that economists say it’s unlikely that rates will move substantially from low 6% to high 5%, the fact that it’s moving at all may get that pool of buyers off the sidelines before all of the good properties are snapped up. If this imaginary pool of buyers doesn’t get moving, they’re risking rates going lower, creating more buyer competition and ultimately pushing home prices higher and offsetting the gain of lower rates. Now could very well be the sweet spot for buyers to buy.

Businesses that cater to home sales, like Home Depot, Lowe’s and furniture and appliance stores, are also vested in the real estate market and are watching very carefully for the next step. Any positive economic movement will create new confidence in the real estate market aimed directly at the wannabe homeowners.

Spring is traditionally the season to sell homes, giving families the ability to move over the summer, before school starts. Florida’s market is not geared so much for school enrollment, but the spring season typically generates the most contracts and closings. Part of the reason is potential buyers who are renting during the winter in Florida are looking around and making buying decisions before they leave. 

This year has been slow for both buyers and renters, so I’m anxious to see the sales statistics for April and May to determine if breaking that 6% threshold has any impact on sales.

Before I close this column out, the Bradenton Herald had a story a few weeks ago about where Manatee County transplants are moving from. In 2025, 1,332 New Yorkers exchanged their driver’s licenses in Manatee County, marking a 59% increase from pre-pandemic levels. This was the first time since 2022 that a single state topped the migration list.

Following New York, the top contributors to Manatee County’s new residents came from New Jersey, Illinois and Pennsylvania. 

Even the western states saw significant migration growth to Manatee County. Washington, Idaho and California, (with a 65% rise) are next in terms of high migration to Manatee County.

I wasn’t surprised about California, since my favorite checkout person at the Holmes Beach Publix told me that about six months ago.

Small reductions in interest rates may not sound like they will influence buyers significantly, however, if you do the math, over a 20- or 30-year period, an eighth or a quarter of a percentage point adds up. 

The timing of this rate drop couldn’t be more perfect since demand has been growing for the past few years with low inventory and high rates. However, you will have to listen carefully to hear the cracking of the housing ice. It’s only a whisper now, but pretty soon it could be a roar.

Tips on selling in a funky market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

In recent years, homeowners in Manatee County have lived through hurricanes, floods, droughts and super-sized construction projects. Every single one of these events have had an effect on the real estate market, mostly in a negative way. Nevertheless, properties owned by individual homeowners continue to be their most valuable asset. So, if you’re thinking about selling, pay attention. 

In most markets, when inventory is high and demand is low, sellers frequently set a low asking price to compete with other properties, but nothing is as simple as that. We live in a very diverse location where there are waterfront, beachfront, new subdivisions, condos, villas, duplexes and probably something I’ve left out.

Therefore, the key to pricing is more about finding a recent sale that is as much like your property as possible and work with that number. The difficulty we are having in this market is finding the recent sales, especially if your home is unique in style and location.

The next obstacle for sellers is being objective. Not all kitchen renovations and bathroom renovations are created equal. If you renovated five or six years ago, you can’t compete with a home that recently was renovated, adding value to the property. 

Location and view are subjective and difficult to put a dollar value on. Some buyers prefer a full Gulf view and others prefer the activity on a bay view, but they all add value.

When staging the interior of your home, declutter and make your home as neutral as possible. That includes walls, floors, décor or anything else that might make the buyer’s eye look at the object rather than the room. Same with family photos: be discrete about which photos to display, if any. Wedding pictures are a killer since buyers instantly are drawn to them. Who doesn’t want to look at a lovely bride and groom?

If you’re in contract with a buyer that includes an appraisal contingency for mortgage purposes, and the appraisal is short, what happens? At this point everyone can pull back and say I want out of the transaction and the contract is voided. Most of the time there is a way to hold the transaction together by either the seller accepting a lower price, the buyer coming up with more cash or some negotiation in between.

Since virtually all buyers have a home inspection, it’s good strategy for the seller to have a home inspection on their property before going on the market. This gives the seller the chance to make necessary repairs ahead of time and sets the stage for a more open and friendly transaction.

Finally, my favorite Halloween topic is whether a seller is required to disclose that the property is believed to be haunted. There is no one answer to this and no one opinion on what is considered a stigmatized property. The laws related to this are governed by state and may need to be disclosed, or may not. Frankly, I would disclose the haunting, even if you personally don’t believe it. You never know what is on someone else’s mind.

When you’re selling what could very well be your largest asset, you need to take the time to understand all aspects of a real estate transaction. Seek the advice of realtors, attorneys, inspectors, mortgage brokers or anyone else who works in the vast network of real estate. Be objective, and don’t ask Casper for his advice, no matter how friendly he is.

January weather wasn’t the only thing chilly

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

One of the reasons I moved to Florida was because when I’m cold the only thing I can think about is how cold I am. I was really cold in January, but not as cold as the national real estate market, which apparently couldn’t think of anything else either.

In January, national home sales fell 8.4%, the biggest monthly decline since February 2022. Remember that what happens on a national level does not always affect local real estate trends, but there certainly is an influence, particularly when it comes to the overall financial health of the country. A little bit further in this column we’ll look at the Manatee County sales statistics for January, which will be an interesting comparison.

So, why was January so bad? Snowstorms and freezing weather all along the east coast certainly didn’t help; and neither did the erratic economic reports coming out of Washington. Which is too bad since the housing market was starting to show signs of recovery, fueled by a slight drop in mortgage interest rates. The decline came after sales rose in three of the previous four months. Even the surveyed economists were surprised, since they were predicting a much smaller decline of 4.6%.

Although December home sales rose, home prices also rose. In addition, the 30-year mortgage rates are hanging out at just above 6% and making no sign of moving, which is giving buyers another reason to sit back. Lawrence Yun Who is the chief economist for the National Board of Realtors. He indicates that improving affordability should bring buyers back to the market, but it’s not because of the public’s lack of an improving comfort level. Also, home prices continue to rise because of historic low levels of available properties, which is not improving the comfort level of potential buyers either.

In January, the national medium single-family existing home rose to $396,800, a 0.9% increase from last year. Manatee County’s median existing home price in January was $480,495, a very slight decrease from last year.

As far as mortgage rates stand, 6.1% is the current average, which is down from about 6.9% last year. Days on the market are also increasing. Therefore, many sellers are deciding to remove their property from the market rather than cut prices.

It’s time to look at the sales statistics reported by the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee: single-family homes closed 10.8% fewer properties this January compared to last. The median price was $480,495, down 0.1% from last year, and the average sale price was $647,324, down 2.3%. The median time to contract was 58 days, compared to 49 days last year, and the month’s supply of available properties was 4.6 months, with no change from last year. The bright spot was pending sales, which were up 17.4%.

Condos closed 1.7% fewer properties. The median sale price was $305,000, down 9.2%; and the average sale price was $366,887, down 10.1% from last year. The median time to contract was 65 days, compared to 60 days last year; and the month’s supply of available properties was 7.2 months, compared to eight months last year. Pending sales were also up from last year by 3.2%.

The Association of Realtors is sticking by its position that during the last several months the market has settled and everyone is adjusting to the “new normal.” 

A final word about interest rates: 6.1% is not a terrible interest rate. Yes, it’s about double what the average was in 2020, and because of that, we may have created a generation of buyers who expect artificially low interest rates. I’ve said this before, but the likelihood of seeing 3% to 4% interest rates again is about the same as me moving back to the northeast, so it’s time to jump in the market.

Castles in the Sand: Frozen in place

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

For a long time, we’ve been saying that real estate is frozen in place, but on February 2nd it was confirmed by none other than Punxsutawney Phil.

With respect to Phil, the polar vortex is what’s really causing the frigid weather we’ve been experiencing since early January. Furthermore, meteorologists are predicting that the extreme cold spell the eastern part of the country has been experiencing will be extended.

So, how does the arctic air hanging around affect the housing market? The most helpful thing that can happen is the polar vortex keeps pushing down and putting pressure on the northeastern states, driving the homeowners who have been toying with the idea of moving south to finally say, “I’ve had enough of this.” But changes in the weather are only short-term. What the country needs is some long-term permanent programs that will jump-start the housing market and give first-time buyers a foot on the property ladder. 

In an effort to achieve this, the government is looking into a variety of system changes in financing and investing to help stimulate the process and the culture of the housing market. There are ideas being thrown into the pot by the president, Congress, bankers and builders – all aimed at property affordability.

The president offered the first step in his new housing plan by taking measures to ban Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes, easing up on the competition for first-time buyers. He also announced a plan to let Americans tap into their 401(k) retirement plans for a down payment.

Next came mortgage policies, starting with a 50-year mortgage. Sounds crazy? It did to me at first, but it also sounded crazy when we started financing smartphones and long-term loans for our cars, not to mention leasing. Yes, it’s true that you will likely never pay off the 50-year mortgage, but in reality most homeowners don’t pay off a 30-year mortgage, so why not give them the opportunity to build equity and have the pride of ownership?

However, the downside of a 50-year mortgage is increasing the housing shortage even more and pushing prices higher. The same with lowering the mortgage rates: according to the AEI Housing Center analysis, if mortgage rates fall to 4.5%, for example, without an increase in housing supply, home prices would increase by one-tenth over the next three years.

Finally, government officials and builders alike feel that flooding the market with new affordable housing may get first-time buyers into a home but will negatively affect the people that already have a home. The end result of this will be driving down home prices for both new construction and current homeowners.

Therefore, as you can see, there is no quick fix. Whatever happens in the real estate market affects the entire economy, so it has to be tweaked very carefully. Likewise, since all real estate is local – driven by local zoning, environmental and land-use policies – coming up with a national policy will be virtually impossible.

On February 2nd, Phil the groundhog came out of his underground home, saw his shadow and ran right back in. Since Phil is never wrong, we can look forward to six more weeks of cold, cold weather, but will it keep real estate frozen too? Only Phil knows.

Castles in the Sand: People change their minds all the time

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Humans are notorious for changing their minds. It could be as simple as the flavor of ice cream to the color of your new car. But when you’re involved in a real estate transaction, changing your mind is a lot more serious and expensive.

A contract for the purchase of real estate, whether it’s a single-family home or a condo, is generally airtight after all the contingencies have been met. For instance, the buyer is applying for a mortgage and the seller has accepted the sale based on the buyer being approved for the mortgage stipulated in the contract.

This is usually the largest and most important contingency in a real estate contract and is the reason that sellers consider cash transactions more valuable. The buyer’s mortgage approval deadline is stated in the contract; and if it is not met, the contract is void unless the seller grants the buyer more time for approval. If this happens, it’s usually an issue of a title defect rather than financial and generally it can be resolved.

Other contingencies included in most contracts are inspections, like radon and termites. Inspections must be completed by a time certain, as stated in the contract, and if there is a failure during the inspection the buyer has the right to withdraw from the contract.

In Florida, or other states where termites are common, the seller can correct the problem and continue with the sale. However, it is not unusual for the buyer to use a minor issue in the inspection to withdraw from the contract for reasons that have nothing to do with the inspection, without even giving the seller the opportunity to correct the problem, because they just want out.

Buyers are human and are apt to change their minds right up to closing day. If a buyer wants to cancel a contract after the contingencies are satisfied, that may constitute a breach of contract, in which case the seller can return the deposit. Most contracts of sale allow the seller to retain the deposit as liquidated damages. However, it’s not uncommon for buyers go forward with litigation to recover their deposit. Obviously, settling this out of court will save both parties in the transaction stress and money. 

What happens if the buyer finds a defect with the property after closing? This is probably the biggest nightmare situation for everyone, including the brokers who may not have any money at risk but will offer suggestions and try to resolve the situation in an effort to salvage their own reputation.

Property defects discovered after the closing almost always go back to a lack of disclosure. Even if sellers say they know nothing about the problem, it’s difficult for buyers to believe, and it never ends well. I’ve heard of or read about just about any situation, from animals living in the attic or basement without the previous owner knowing to roots blocking the sewer line and not being discovered by an inspector.

Appliances that die the day after closing are difficult to blame the seller for unless the buyer can prove they knew about a problem before closing. It’s also important to coordinate the on and off dates for electricity, especially in the summer when mold forms quickly and refrigerators get warm even faster. I’ve heard about personal items like expensive jewelry left in the house hidden and forgotten, and guns taped under drawers when furniture was being conveyed with the sale.

For the most part, people are honest and are not intentionally trying to kill the contract, but an abundance of honesty and careful inspections can guarantee a smooth transaction. 

And don’t forget the emergency money on the top shelf of the kitchen cabinet on the day you move. That could stretch the bounds of honesty.

Where did my parents’ Florida go?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

In the early ‘70s, my parents moved to the east coast of Florida, inland from Pompano Beach. They bought a brand new two-bedroom, two-bath condo overlooking the pool for about $20,000. They were in heaven to be away from the New York winters and to live in what they perceived as a “fancy” place.

In those days, Florida offered properties for all retirees in all price ranges to enjoy the sunshine and affordable living. However, things have changed a lot in Florida and it’s not your parents’ Florida anymore.

Those of us who live in Florida don’t have to be told how expenses have gone up in the last several years. Insurance, property taxes and HOA fees have all increased. Nevertheless, buyers are still coming just a little more well-heeded then in previous years. There are Florida counties where the income of people moving in from other states in 2022 surpassed that of existing residents, based on the most recent Internal Revenue Service and Census Bureau data. 

Meanwhile, middle-class Florida residents are leaving and looking for a more affordable location. The Carolinas are providing an alternative to Florida, with lower property values and a lower cost of living. 

Even mobile home communities, which were always an alternative for low-income retirees, are getting expensive. Most of them are now owned by corporations that may be buying them for investment development down the road.

The real estate developers are focusing their new construction on the high-end market with more upscale offerings. Lakewood Ranch, the master planned community in Bradenton, has properties ranging from townhouses in the $200,000 range to palatial houses listing at more than $3 million. According to Lakewood Ranch data, home sales grew from 2023 to 2025 in two price categories – $1 million-plus and below $300,000 – and decreased in the ranges in between where middle-class retirees would normally buy.

The influx of wealthier buyers is adding pressure to an already difficult housing market. The average home value in Florida was $372,000 in November – a decline from recent years but a significant increase from 2019 when the average was $246,000. 

Then there is the ultraluxury market in and around Miami. The insanity of this market is totally unrelated to the average person. According to Miller Samuel, an appraisal and consulting firm, there were four real estate transactions above $100 million in 2025. What would my parents think? 

Even the senior living communities in Naples, one of the super high-end housing areas in Florida, are starting at $600,000 and ranging to $9 million. So, if you’re thinking of growing old in a Florida senior care facility, you might have to reassess your plans.

The home pricing betting platforms are also getting very popular. Robinhood and Kalshi are accessible if you’re in the betting mood or just looking for another opinion on buying and selling properties. My opinion is that these platforms can be very dangerous to the average homebuyer who may be getting information based on a national trend and not applicable to their local area.

For sure, my parents would be shocked if they woke up in 2026 and saw the prices on similar two-bedroom, two-bath condos like they bought in 1973. But everything changes, and sometimes it changes too fast. If you’ve lived here for 20 years, you’re sitting pretty, but new retirees to Florida are having sticker shock.

Castles in the Sand: A flipper is more than a pet dolphin

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

If you love dolphins, all you have to do is walk along any beach on Anna Maria Island and you’re sure to see them. But these are not the “flippers” we’re talking about today. Today, we’re talking about house flippers who may not be quite as friendly.

Call it “get rich quick” or call it “house flipping,” the goal is to buy low, invest very low sums of money to clean and renovate and sell high. If you’re lucky enough to do that consistently, you’re a flipper.

It’s certainly not impossible to become a full-time flipper. In 2024, flipping accounted for 7.6% of all single-family and condo sales nationwide. Since then, there has been a decline and flippers are faced with the same lack of inventory as conventional buyers. 

The amount of risk and uncertainty in the flipping business can range from the glory at the top to the failure at the bottom of a real estate transaction.

The worst-case scenario for a flipper is not being able to flip at a price that makes sense and ends up with a reasonable profit. Now, the poor flipper has to not sell and then rent the property, which presents an entirely different set of problems, primarily reducing any potential profit. 

The trick is to identify a home with “good bones” and bad hygiene. Trashing out and cleaning may not be glamorous, but it does the trick. Add a coat of soft gray paint and you’ll be surprised how good the white appliances look when the grime is gone.

So how do you start? Research the market and understand local trends, property values and demand. Wherever you are within the distribution of this newspaper, you’re near the water, and that should be your primary goal. Unfortunately, because of last year’s storms, there have been a lot of houses that were damaged or flooded. I would laser focus on one of those if they haven’t already been snapped up.

Securing financing is next. Traditional lenders frequently hesitate to finance investment properties. Flippers love cash or short-term financing and sellers love prequalifications.

In the flipper’s bible, if there is such a thing, you’ll see something called (ARV), which stands for After Repair Value. This is the potential market value after renovations. The rule is that you should pay no more than 70% of the ARV, minus the estimated repair costs to ensure a sufficient profit margin.

Finally, just like any seller, price competitively and market effectively, preferably working with an experienced local real estate agent.

Since you don’t need a license to be a flipper, you can start immediately. But you do need to comply with all state property sales laws. Do a thorough title search, and even though you’re experienced, you may still need the advice of an engineer or home inspector. 

After last year, anyone with ownership of a property should have insurance – even if you plan on flipping quickly. If you’re lucky enough to make a profit, you will be subject to capital gains taxes since the government doesn’t give investors any capital gains relief. Forming an LLC is not required but is recommended to protect your personal assets from lawsuits that may arise on your investment property.

In the less sophisticated days of television, there was a show called “Flipper”. Flipper became the pet of two young boys who had adventures that kids on Anna Maria Island could only imagine. Flipping houses is not nearly as charming as Flipper the dolphin, but it could be lucrative if done right.

Castles in the Sand: Critical ignoring and crystal balls

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

The best thing that has happened to the real estate vocabulary in recent years is called critical ignoring. Certainly, it’s not just applicable to real estate, but by golly it works.

Critical ignoring comes from the internet, doesn’t everything, and the artificial intelligence that drives it. Essentially, it means you should take everything you read with a grain of salt or totally ignore.

When it comes to real estate statistics reported on a national level, I prefer the ignore option. It’s not that the numbers aren’t correct; they are. It’s just that real estate is all local, and what applies in downtown Boston may have zero relevance on Anna Maria Island.

There was a report I read, right around Christmas, which was extremely broad in its reporting about condo owners facing the worst market since 2012. Across the board, rising homeowner association fees due to higher insurance premiums and maintenance costs are making condominium purchases less affordable. Single-family homes also have higher maintenance and insurance costs, don’t they? Large metro areas are suffering more with a glut of supply weighing on prices.

And good old Florida can never catch a break it seems. Insurance costs and hurricanes are totally spooking buyers, in addition to the Florida condo market taking a major hit since the Surfside collapse – ignoring the fact that Florida is a big state and Surfside is a tiny place. Actually, the laws put in place after Surfside have done a lot to improve condo living in Florida. In spite of all of this, condo owners have gained equity since they purchased. Go figure. 

Sorry, but most of this can be critically ignored. Floridians love condo living and that’s not changing anytime soon. Prices may go up, prices may go down, insurance is always an ongoing conversation, and the cost of maintenance will always increase. 

Now, to the crystal balls about this year’s housing market. The op-ed I read has predicted that mortgage rates will be somewhere between 5.75% and 6% this time next year. Declining rates and increased inventory should spark more home sales, especially if the overall economy perks up. Prices will flatten, but there will not be a significant decline in prices.

Real estate professionals will find themselves working for major companies, with the possibility of large brokerage or real estate holding companies attempting to acquire a prominent homebuilder.

And believe it or not, Netflix’s real estate programs, which I love, will help inspire some young people to consider real estate careers. Now that should not be critically ignored.

Time for the December sales statistics reported by the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 5.6% fewer properties this December than last December. The median sale price was $491,500, down 0.1%, and the average sale price was $653,048, down 3.3%. Median time to contract was 55 days, compared to 56 days last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.3 months, compared to four months last year. 

Condos closed 13% more properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $307,500, down 6%, and the average sale price was $352,068, down 2.7%. Median time to contract was 63 days, compared to 56 days; and the month’s supply of available properties was 6.5 months, compared to 6.9 months last year.

Let’s not critically ignore these numbers. The season is just starting and it’s not critical yet. 

Marketing for the new year

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

It’s a new year and time for new marketing ideas. You may think you’ve tried everything to sell your home, but you’ll be surprised at what you may have overlooked.

For about 25 years of my working life, I worked in some form of marketing. Selling real estate is, of course, marketing; and many of the years I worked for the Sun newspaper I was involved in advertising. But what really got my creative juices running was the years I worked with relocation companies marketing and selling their properties.

Time is money, and when relocation companies are tasked with selling a property they have taken over from one of their client’s employees, it can’t be wasted. Naturally, they are looking to the realtor to come up with the best ideas, and sometimes we did. One of my favorite marketing ideas was giving away a mink coat to the broker who came up with the buyer. This was a multi-million-dollar property in a high-end area on the north shore of Long Island – a lovely home with just one problem: the commuter train ran through the end of the property.

The relocation company at first was reluctant to spend thousands of dollars to acquire the mink, but when their representatives drove down from Connecticut to the broker open house they were impressed by the wall-to-wall brokers who attended. Needless to say, it worked. Realtors are nothing if not competitive and there was so much exposure to the property that it was inevitable.

Obviously, Anna Maria Island and our coastal communities won’t be giving away a mink coat but there are other creative beach-related prizes that will attract the attention of brokers. How about a weekend in a Gulf front home available for rent? Or a year’s worth of restaurant gift certificates at one of the Island’s jazzy restaurants? And my personal favorite: a new wardrobe of bikinis to give to your favorite toned woman.

However, now with artificial intelligence becoming such a major marketing tool, real estate is getting in on the act – and I don’t mean just staging a home or redesigning rooms. I read about a homeowner who created an AI film with a storyline specific to their property and ran it attached to their advertising and their listing. The ideas when you live on the beach are unlimited – everything from Robinson Crusoe to beach parties. 

If you want to provide a service to both brokers and open house attendees, arrange for a mortgage broker and/or an insurance broker to attend the open houses. In these confusing times of mortgage rates and new mortgage products the opinion of an experienced mortgage broker can come in very handy in a short conversation. 

Likewise, waterfront and flood zone home insurance is always a tricky thing. Insurance brokers can answer questions and clear up confusion for brokers and buyers. You’ll look like a hero and people won’t forget the house.

There are a lot of theories about empty houses not showing as well as lived in properties. Back in my day, the relocation companies came up with an idea of putting people they called “house managers” in the properties. They paid nominal rent and were expected to keep the property clean and clutter-free in return, as well as providing security. There are a lot of empty houses on Anna Maria Island that could benefit by this idea.

You don’t need to reinvent the marketing wheel. Go ahead, borrow some ideas and make them your own, I won’t care.

Castles in the Sand: Sunny-side Up

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Last week’s column was a bit of a downer. I’m not saying it wasn’t true, only that real estate sales need a sunnier pathway in order to encourage motion, so let’s see if we can let the sun shine in.

First of all, the fact that homeowners are sitting on more home equity than at any other time in history is not necessarily a bad thing. Not everyone wants to move and many Americans are just as happy to live in their current home atop a mound of equity with a low mortgage rate and wait to retire. Not exactly torture.

Second, the ultra-low interest rates we experienced five years ago gave many homeowners the opportunity of owning a home for the first time. This action could easily come back years from now as the one single thing that turned the United States housing market around.

Finally, between the years 2003 and 2008, mortgage interest rates floated between 6.5% and 5.87%, getting close to where we are now. And guess what? People bought houses every day.

After the third time this year the feds lowered interest rates, the market is finally starting to respond. As of early December, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was hovering at about 6.2%. On December 24th, Freddie Mac gave everyone a Christmas gift, lowering the fixed rate to an average of 6.18%.

There are, however, buyers out there who think they’re entitled to a 3% rate and will refuse to buy unless they get it. I would direct these buyers to Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate history and they’ll see rates as high as 16%, and we didn’t lose the real estate structure of the country.

The housing market has been stuck in low gear for some time now, however, home sales rose in November nationally for the third straight month. These three consecutive months of rising sales is the longest streak since December 2024. In addition, mortgage rates have been falling in recent months, boosting home buying activity. Buyers are taking advantage of the slight improvement in affordability and more would likely jump into the market if mortgage rates fall further.

Florida recorded 17,674 closed sales of existing single-family homes in November, up 3.4% over last year. Condo sales were also up 1.6% in the state, totaling 6,099 sales. Although it’s difficult to transfer the end of year trends into the next year’s spring buying season, the economists are not seeing anything in these sales numbers that give us a reason to be pessimistic as the year turns over.

There’s a lot of demand in Florida waiting to be unlocked as affordability improves – and improvements we do see, if at a snail’s pace. Florida remains a very attractive destination for out-of-staters and the only impediment in the last couple of years has been affordability. All of this offers some hope that the housing market nationally may finally show signs of life in 2026; and I predict Florida will be leading the way. 

If you’re a homeowner who is clinging to your 3% mortgage and come hell or high water you won’t give it up, you need a reality check: those rates aren’t coming back. Don’t sacrifice your family’s happiness and security because you’re frozen in place.

I thought I would end my first column of the new year on the light side. My friend who lives in New York City shared with me something she saw in the window of a liquor store while she was out for her afternoon stroll: “We don’t have flu shots, but we do have wine shots.” So, there it is, it doesn’t get any better than that … Happy New Year.

Financially irrational real estate market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

New Year’s Eve is tradition­ally the night of hope for the new year, resolutions and good wishes. When it comes to the real estate market, 2026 isn’t promising much of a variation from the old year, but hope is eternal and humans are optimistic.

Homeowners are locked in place trapped by their low-interest rate mort­gages designed as a vaccination against recession when the pandemic hit. This is not a new topic; anyone who reads real estate news online or in the paper can find discussions practically every day about why homeowners with high equity and low mortgages won’t move.

There are millions of homeowners who are wealthier on paper than at any time in history. They have record equity, incredi­able low interest rates and many with homes that have appreciated by double digits in only a few years.

So, what’s the problem? You would think they would be running to their local broker to list their home and cash in. The problem is, per Realtor.com, for these owners to buy a typical home in today’s market would require an estimated payment of more than 73% than they currently pay. For most that’s a non-starter; even if they can afford the extra payment, the physiological effect won’t let them budge.

When mortgage rates started falling, almost overnight, to as low as 3%, demand surged for the lower rate to refinance or to purchase. Buyers saw a pathway to purchase their first home or move up home because with lower rates the monthly carrying costs took a nose­dive resulting in more people qualifying for higher mortgages.

With buyers coming out of the wood­work, it didn’t take long for the inventory to get snapped up, pushing prices upward. Builders were attracting buyers so fast the supply chain could not keep up the labor, supplies and zoning changes necessary to meet the overwhelming response.

All of this competition pushed prices up so far that values surged by 25% to 40% in some markets.

Needless to say, homeowners were celebrating their new equity and looking down the road at long-term stability. But if it’s too good to be true, it usually is, and it didn’t take long for inflation to take over, forcing the Feds to move rates in the opposite direction. Within 18 months mortgage rates more than doubled, passing over the 7% mark. This dried up the refinance market and buyers were having trouble living with the shortage of inventory and higher priced properties, along with a doubling of interest rates.

The real estate market froze, but not because of a lack of homes alone. It froze because those who owned homes couldn’t justify leaving them. This is completely the opposite of a healthy market. A healthy market should encourage mobility, opening up space for new home buyers, keeping the cycle going.

The real estate structure needs some creative ideas and one of them is portable and assumable mortgages. At one point we had a fair number of assumable mortgages, but that market is rarely offered anymore. Portable mortgages exist in other countries and would certainly open up the mobility of properties. Also, incentives to downsize, like tax credits and closing cost incentives, could also unlock homes. Whatever it is, someone should take the lead on this, whether it’s lenders or political office holders.

Paying more for less is not in the American DNA so it may take a long time to release millions of homeowners from the mortgage trap.

Happy New Year and best wishes for a prosperous year.

Legislation would eliminate property taxes

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Feature.

It’s been an interesting month, but then, December usually is. Lost in the gay atmosphere of the holidays, it’s easy not to notice that business goes on as usual, and this December didn’t disappoint.

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ property tax elimination plan was back in the news and this time I read it. There are several house joint resolutions that are being considered for the 2026 ballot. All of them to some degree are aimed at abolishing property taxes on properties that are homesteaded. These are the key proposals:

• HJR 201: Eliminates non-school property taxes for homesteads entirely;

• HJR 203: Gradually phase out non-school property taxes over 10 years by increasing exemptions annually;

• HJR 205: Exempt residents 65 and over from non-school property taxes;

• HJR 207: Add a 25% homestead exemption on assessed value for non-school taxes; and

• HJR 209: Add a $100,000 exemption for insured homesteads.

The governor is in favor of eliminating all property taxes on primary homes, viewing them as paying “rent to government.” The legislative approaches favor a menu of options for voters on the ballot.

The impact of any one of these options could raise home values by 7% to 9%, which could be a boom for current owners but harder for first-time buyers and renters. Governments would need new revenue to replace lost property tax and even if school property tax is preserved, other taxes could be eliminated, impacting overall budgets.

The next step for these constitutional amendments is passing the Legislature and then being approved by Florida voters in the November 2026 general election.

The other piece of December business-as-usual is the meeting of the Federal Reserve on Dec. 10. At that meeting, rates were reduced by a quarter of a percent, which was the third straight cut this year. However, the vote was not unanimous, and the indication is that it could be the last rate cut for a while.

As usual, when the Feds cut rates, it does not always translate into lower mortgage rates, but it does give an overall feeling of stability in the country’s financial position.

So, let’s take a look at the November Manatee County sales statistics released by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 13.7% fewer homes this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $487,233, up 13.3% from last year, and the average sale price was $653,655, up 9% from last year. The median time to contract was 59 days this year compared to 45 days last year. Active listings are up 8.4% compared to last year and the month’s supply of properties is 4.2 months, up 7.7%.

Condos closed 16% more properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $308,000, down 0.6% this year compared to last year, and the average sale price was $332,602, down 3.6% compared to last year. The median time to contract was 74 days compared to 53 days last year and there were 3.4% more listings this year compared to last. The month’s supply of properties was 6.5 months, down 1.5%.

It’s pretty clear that the Manatee housing market is still struggling from last year’s hurricanes; so far there is no clear narrative or direction. Buyers and sellers will be faced with ups and downs in the early part of the new year and hopefully find their footing going forward.

If Florida is successful in passing almost any type of property tax relief, I agree it would be a boom to real estate. Watch what goes on in the Legislature as the new year progresses.

Wishing everyone a wonderful holiday season enjoying celebrations with friends and family.

What’s the future of housing?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Feature.

Everyone who owns real estate, lives in real estate, finances real estate or sells real estate is buying crystal balls for Christmas; 2026 was expected to be a steadier housing market, but so far, there are no significant signs of stability.

Realtor.com recently researched and prepared a 2026 housing forecast. They concluded that mortgage rates will average 6.3%, easing affordability pressures slightly. Home prices will rise modestly by 2.2% and existing home sales should climb to about 1.7%. None of this is earthshaking, but it is a meaningful gain from this year. Nevertheless, home sales will remain well below normal as high prices and financing costs continue to hold back demand.

At the same time, for sale inventory will continue to recover, up nearly 9% year over year. For homebuyers and sellers, this represents a shift to a more balanced market, offering breathing room and negotiating power that favors buyers.

The mortgage rate lock, which is, in effect, caused by extremely low rates during the pandemic years, has left many homeowners with a strong reason to not move even if they have the need and desire to do so. Recent data showed that four out of every five homeowners with a mortgage has a rate below 6% and many are at 3% or slightly above.

Home prices are expected to continue to climb in 2026, however, inflation is expected to outpace these gains. Essentially, this means that home prices will decline slightly after inflation is adjusted. The good news is that after higher-than-expected mortgage rates in most of 2025, the rates are finally starting to relax, especially in the second half of the year. The expectation is for rates to drop into the low 6% range.

All home buyers will benefit from lower rates and more inventory. However, it’s the first-time buyers who will benefit the most by finding an opportunity to get into their first home. The real estate market is driven by these first-time buyers since they will likely be moving up to a larger and more expensive property in the years ahead, keeping the real estate train rolling.

Realtor.com also included local market predictions in metro areas around the country. North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton are the metro areas we are part of. The prediction for us, therefore, is 2026 sales growth year over year up 0.8%, and the 2026 price growth year over year down 8.9%. Tampa/St. Petersburg/Clearwater is the next closest metro area to us. The prediction for this area is 2026 sales growth year over year down 3.1% and the 2026 price growth year over year down 3.6%. If you’re interested, you can print out all of the metro areas from the Realtor.com website.

I heard about the Realtor.com report from a television interview with Bill Pulte, who is the director of the Federal Housing and Finance Agency (FHFA) for the country. He oversees Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan divisions. His take on this housing forecast was a lot rosier than mine was after reading it myself. I suppose that’s his job, but keep in mind that Bill Pulte owns Pulte Homes, a large nationwide developer of new homes – just saying.

Since real estate markets affect all aspects of the economy and personal lives, everyone is anxious about the new year. You can always depend on your crystal ball, but better get on Santa’s list before he runs out. It looks like there will be a rush on them before Christmas Eve.

We all should be thankful

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Feature.

It’s Thanksgiving, and we in Florida have enjoyed a more than spectacular run of weather somewhere between good and fantastic. However, the most fantastic thing we have to be grateful for is no hurricanes this year after last year’s devastation.
Something else to be grateful for if you’re a condo owner is an update to the laws mandating building milestone inspections. The Florida legislation on mandatory milestone inspections for condominiums, enacted after the 2021 Surfside collapse, provides specific exceptions for certain building types. Subsequent laws have refined these exemptions, mostly notably by using the concept of “habitable stories.”
The “habitable stories” clarification is a 2025 legislative update (HB 913) which clarified that a milestone inspection is required only for buildings with three or more habitable stories. This means that a three-story building where one or more floors are for non-habitable uses like parking may be exempt.
In addition, the Structural Integrity Reserve Study (SIRS) requirement, which mandates that associations fully fund reserves for major repairs, shares similar exemptions.
Also, these dwellings with three or fewer habitable stories above ground are exempt: Single-family homes, two-family dwellings (duplexes), three-family dwellings (triplexes) and four-family dwellings (quadruplexes), as added by 2024 legislation (HB 1021).
When the initial law was passed in 2021 stating that three-story buildings were part of the inspection mandate, there were a lot of questions about condos that were two stories over parking, a popular design on Anna Maria Island and the surrounding areas. Unfortunately, it took the legislation four years to clarify what they really meant with the simple word “habitable.” This omission created extra work and expense for condominiums that were two habitable stories but were considered three stories in the original law.
Let’s see what the Manatee County sales statistics are for the month of October reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee. As you read these statistics, keep in mind that in October 2024, Hurricane Milton impacted all of Manatee County.
Single-family homes closed 26.8% more properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price this year was $481,000, an increase of 0.2% from last year, and the average sale price was $616,842, an increase of 1% from last year. The median time to contract was 55 days compared to 60 days last year and there were 42.4% new listings in October this year compared to last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.2 months compared to 3.9 months last year.
Condos closed 8.0% more properties this October compared to last year. The median sale price was $292,500, down 10.8% from last year, and the average sale price was $333,774, down 6.9% from last year. The median time to contract was 86 days compared to 75 days last year, and there were 44.4% new listings this year compared to last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 6.3 months compared to 6 months last year.
The strong increase in statistics is nice to see, however, please note that comparisons are skewed by the sharp drop in activity during the October 2024 hurricane season. In reality, the recent trends point to a market that is rebalancing and stabilizing with the help of a mild hurricane season
There are still residents of Manatee County and in particular Anna Maria Island and the coastal communities working on repairs to their homes and roofs from Helene and Milton. Nevertheless, most of us are feeling cautiously happy, and this is really something to be thankful for. Happy Thanksgiving.