Everyone likes to speculate on what the real estate trends will be going forward. The problem is we are in uncharted territory, so making predictions could be a fool’s errand.
What is it that we do know? We know we have lived through a devastating hurricane season, leaving homes all over Manatee County damaged. Anna Maria Island and other coastal communities bear the brunt of the damage but homeowners fronting the Manatee River have experienced their fair share of damage.
We also know the mortgage interest rates; the Federal Reserve lowering its rates in December did nothing to improve mortgage interest rates, just the opposite – they went up. On Jan. 17, mortgage rates rose above 7% for the average of a 30-year fixed rate mortgage for the first time since mid-2024 per Freddie Mac.
This uptick in rates was totally missed by housing executives and economists who incorrectly predicted that mortgage rates would come down. Six months ago, the prediction was that interest rates would be reduced slowly through 2025, and mortgage rates would reach the mid- to high-5% range. For our region, the combination of damaged properties and high interest rates that may also make investors take pause leaves us with a double whammy of uncertainty.
So, what’s the good news? I guess it depends on how you look at it, however, the Florida Demographic Estimating Conference predicts that Florida’s population growth will slow down. In 2024, the conference reported over 23 million in population, an increase of 1.62%. Their estimated growth rate for 2025 decreases to 1.43% and in 2026 down further to 1.33% and keeps declining. Nowhere in their estimates does it show that growth will be reversed; in fact, in 2033, Florida will likely reach well over 25 million residents.
As far as Manatee County’s position in this growth, in 2024 the population increased to just over 452,000 residents and by 2028 will potentially reach almost 485,000 residents. Looks like the slowdown won’t be an issue in Manatee County – not surprising based on the avalanche of new construction all over the county.
Let’s take a look at the December real estate statistics reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:
Single-family homes in Manatee County closed 6.2% more properties this December compared to last December. The median sale price was $492,045, down 1.6%, and the average sale price was $675,263, down 2.8%. The median time to contract was 56 days compared to 35 days last year and the number of new listings was up 19.3%. The month’s supply of available properties was 4 months compared to 3.3 months last December.
Condos in Manatee County closed 24.9% more properties this December compared to last year. The median sale price was $327,000, down 6.6%, and the average sale price was $361,827, down 4.3%. The median time to contract was 56 days compared to 38 days last year and the number of new listings was up 43.5%. The month’s supply of available properties was 6.9 months compared to 4.6 months last year.
More next week about what these numbers may mean and the overall yearly trends.
Uncharted territory is probably an understatement since it’s almost impossible to get a firm answer about the future other than an overall feeling that everything will come back. As always, everyone needs to make decisions based on their personal needs, uncharted or not.
