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Tag: Anna Maria Island real estate

Hidden issues in your future home

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

You finally found the home of your dreams. Now you need to be certain that your dream won’t turn into a nightmare.

Hiring a home inspector will probably be the best money you spend during the purchasing process. An inspector is looking for hidden issues that the future owner may not have noticed, as well as the physical structure, from the roof to the foundation. The inspection takes between two and four hours and in Florida will cost the buyer in the range of $650 for a 2,000-square-foot single-family house. Other inspections, like termites, pool, mold and radon, would be additional charges. There are 35 states that require home inspectors to be licensed, and Florida is among them.

Home inspections are visual inspections only, not invasive. Inspectors are thorough and it’s unusual for them to miss something, but if they do miss a minor item, something non-structural, they frequently will take responsibility for the repair. If there is a significant issue or something breaks during the course of the inspection, inspectors will likely turn it over to their insurance company.

As the buyer, you have a vested interest in the outcome of the inspection, so it’s important to attend the inspection. Walk through the home with the inspector, ask questions and verify that the inspector runs all the appliances through a cycle. You’ll learn a lot about your future house. If there is a problem or something that needs to be replaced, the inspector can give you an idea of the cost and the timeline.

Florida is “condo land” and you may think an inspection is not required. That’s something you should rethink. The cost of a new refrigerator (because you didn’t notice it was running warm) would cost more than the inspector.

Now it’s time to check the February sales statistics reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.

Single-family home sales were up 10% from last February. The median sale price was $489,634, up 2.9% from last year. The average sale price was $673,021, up 2.5%. The median time to contract was 65 days, compared to 46 days last year. The months’ supply of available properties was 4.8 months, compared to 4.9 months last year.

Condo sales were down 18.7% from February of last year. The median sale price was $311,995, down 2.5%. The average sale price was $369,085, up 3.3%. The median time to contract was 67 days, compared to 51 days last year. The months’ supply of available properties was 7.5 months, compared to 8.3 months last year.

Even though condo sales were substantially down, I feel the extreme cold weather in the northeast and in Florida discouraged the typical condo buyer from moving forward. However, single-family homes are showing a serious recovery this month.

Cash sales were up 6% for single-family home buyers and up 7.4% for condo buyers. These strong increases, particularly in the condo market, could indicate activity for investors and second home buyers.

Home inspections are important to the real estate transaction and should never be waived. Every repair required in owning a home is super expensive, not to mention a nightmare, so be sure to know ahead of closing what you can expect. Negotiate accordingly, budget for unexpected repairs and you’ll sleep soundly.

The thaw has begun

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

If you have any friends or relatives north of South Carolina and straight up to the northern environs of Maine, it’s safe to call them and say the temperatures are going up, the snow is melting, and if you listen carefully, you’ll also hear sounds of the “housing thaw.” 

On February 26, a day that will live in the hearts of all mortgage brokers and real estate agents, the mortgage interest rate fell below 6%. 

This was the first time in more than three years, and it could mark an important psychological threshold. Mortgage rates briefly topped 7% last January, but rates have steadily fallen since then. Mortgage brokers discuss the 5% rate zone as the key to getting the market moving. Buyers are starting to recognize that 3% rates aren’t going to happen again and a rate between 5% and 6% is the new norm.

In spite of the fact that economists say it’s unlikely that rates will move substantially from low 6% to high 5%, the fact that it’s moving at all may get that pool of buyers off the sidelines before all of the good properties are snapped up. If this imaginary pool of buyers doesn’t get moving, they’re risking rates going lower, creating more buyer competition and ultimately pushing home prices higher and offsetting the gain of lower rates. Now could very well be the sweet spot for buyers to buy.

Businesses that cater to home sales, like Home Depot, Lowe’s and furniture and appliance stores, are also vested in the real estate market and are watching very carefully for the next step. Any positive economic movement will create new confidence in the real estate market aimed directly at the wannabe homeowners.

Spring is traditionally the season to sell homes, giving families the ability to move over the summer, before school starts. Florida’s market is not geared so much for school enrollment, but the spring season typically generates the most contracts and closings. Part of the reason is potential buyers who are renting during the winter in Florida are looking around and making buying decisions before they leave. 

This year has been slow for both buyers and renters, so I’m anxious to see the sales statistics for April and May to determine if breaking that 6% threshold has any impact on sales.

Before I close this column out, the Bradenton Herald had a story a few weeks ago about where Manatee County transplants are moving from. In 2025, 1,332 New Yorkers exchanged their driver’s licenses in Manatee County, marking a 59% increase from pre-pandemic levels. This was the first time since 2022 that a single state topped the migration list.

Following New York, the top contributors to Manatee County’s new residents came from New Jersey, Illinois and Pennsylvania. 

Even the western states saw significant migration growth to Manatee County. Washington, Idaho and California, (with a 65% rise) are next in terms of high migration to Manatee County.

I wasn’t surprised about California, since my favorite checkout person at the Holmes Beach Publix told me that about six months ago.

Small reductions in interest rates may not sound like they will influence buyers significantly, however, if you do the math, over a 20- or 30-year period, an eighth or a quarter of a percentage point adds up. 

The timing of this rate drop couldn’t be more perfect since demand has been growing for the past few years with low inventory and high rates. However, you will have to listen carefully to hear the cracking of the housing ice. It’s only a whisper now, but pretty soon it could be a roar.

Tips on selling in a funky market

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

In recent years, homeowners in Manatee County have lived through hurricanes, floods, droughts and super-sized construction projects. Every single one of these events have had an effect on the real estate market, mostly in a negative way. Nevertheless, properties owned by individual homeowners continue to be their most valuable asset. So, if you’re thinking about selling, pay attention. 

In most markets, when inventory is high and demand is low, sellers frequently set a low asking price to compete with other properties, but nothing is as simple as that. We live in a very diverse location where there are waterfront, beachfront, new subdivisions, condos, villas, duplexes and probably something I’ve left out.

Therefore, the key to pricing is more about finding a recent sale that is as much like your property as possible and work with that number. The difficulty we are having in this market is finding the recent sales, especially if your home is unique in style and location.

The next obstacle for sellers is being objective. Not all kitchen renovations and bathroom renovations are created equal. If you renovated five or six years ago, you can’t compete with a home that recently was renovated, adding value to the property. 

Location and view are subjective and difficult to put a dollar value on. Some buyers prefer a full Gulf view and others prefer the activity on a bay view, but they all add value.

When staging the interior of your home, declutter and make your home as neutral as possible. That includes walls, floors, décor or anything else that might make the buyer’s eye look at the object rather than the room. Same with family photos: be discrete about which photos to display, if any. Wedding pictures are a killer since buyers instantly are drawn to them. Who doesn’t want to look at a lovely bride and groom?

If you’re in contract with a buyer that includes an appraisal contingency for mortgage purposes, and the appraisal is short, what happens? At this point everyone can pull back and say I want out of the transaction and the contract is voided. Most of the time there is a way to hold the transaction together by either the seller accepting a lower price, the buyer coming up with more cash or some negotiation in between.

Since virtually all buyers have a home inspection, it’s good strategy for the seller to have a home inspection on their property before going on the market. This gives the seller the chance to make necessary repairs ahead of time and sets the stage for a more open and friendly transaction.

Finally, my favorite Halloween topic is whether a seller is required to disclose that the property is believed to be haunted. There is no one answer to this and no one opinion on what is considered a stigmatized property. The laws related to this are governed by state and may need to be disclosed, or may not. Frankly, I would disclose the haunting, even if you personally don’t believe it. You never know what is on someone else’s mind.

When you’re selling what could very well be your largest asset, you need to take the time to understand all aspects of a real estate transaction. Seek the advice of realtors, attorneys, inspectors, mortgage brokers or anyone else who works in the vast network of real estate. Be objective, and don’t ask Casper for his advice, no matter how friendly he is.

Castles in the Sand: Frozen in place

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

For a long time, we’ve been saying that real estate is frozen in place, but on February 2nd it was confirmed by none other than Punxsutawney Phil.

With respect to Phil, the polar vortex is what’s really causing the frigid weather we’ve been experiencing since early January. Furthermore, meteorologists are predicting that the extreme cold spell the eastern part of the country has been experiencing will be extended.

So, how does the arctic air hanging around affect the housing market? The most helpful thing that can happen is the polar vortex keeps pushing down and putting pressure on the northeastern states, driving the homeowners who have been toying with the idea of moving south to finally say, “I’ve had enough of this.” But changes in the weather are only short-term. What the country needs is some long-term permanent programs that will jump-start the housing market and give first-time buyers a foot on the property ladder. 

In an effort to achieve this, the government is looking into a variety of system changes in financing and investing to help stimulate the process and the culture of the housing market. There are ideas being thrown into the pot by the president, Congress, bankers and builders – all aimed at property affordability.

The president offered the first step in his new housing plan by taking measures to ban Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes, easing up on the competition for first-time buyers. He also announced a plan to let Americans tap into their 401(k) retirement plans for a down payment.

Next came mortgage policies, starting with a 50-year mortgage. Sounds crazy? It did to me at first, but it also sounded crazy when we started financing smartphones and long-term loans for our cars, not to mention leasing. Yes, it’s true that you will likely never pay off the 50-year mortgage, but in reality most homeowners don’t pay off a 30-year mortgage, so why not give them the opportunity to build equity and have the pride of ownership?

However, the downside of a 50-year mortgage is increasing the housing shortage even more and pushing prices higher. The same with lowering the mortgage rates: according to the AEI Housing Center analysis, if mortgage rates fall to 4.5%, for example, without an increase in housing supply, home prices would increase by one-tenth over the next three years.

Finally, government officials and builders alike feel that flooding the market with new affordable housing may get first-time buyers into a home but will negatively affect the people that already have a home. The end result of this will be driving down home prices for both new construction and current homeowners.

Therefore, as you can see, there is no quick fix. Whatever happens in the real estate market affects the entire economy, so it has to be tweaked very carefully. Likewise, since all real estate is local – driven by local zoning, environmental and land-use policies – coming up with a national policy will be virtually impossible.

On February 2nd, Phil the groundhog came out of his underground home, saw his shadow and ran right back in. Since Phil is never wrong, we can look forward to six more weeks of cold, cold weather, but will it keep real estate frozen too? Only Phil knows.

Castles in the Sand: People change their minds all the time

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Humans are notorious for changing their minds. It could be as simple as the flavor of ice cream to the color of your new car. But when you’re involved in a real estate transaction, changing your mind is a lot more serious and expensive.

A contract for the purchase of real estate, whether it’s a single-family home or a condo, is generally airtight after all the contingencies have been met. For instance, the buyer is applying for a mortgage and the seller has accepted the sale based on the buyer being approved for the mortgage stipulated in the contract.

This is usually the largest and most important contingency in a real estate contract and is the reason that sellers consider cash transactions more valuable. The buyer’s mortgage approval deadline is stated in the contract; and if it is not met, the contract is void unless the seller grants the buyer more time for approval. If this happens, it’s usually an issue of a title defect rather than financial and generally it can be resolved.

Other contingencies included in most contracts are inspections, like radon and termites. Inspections must be completed by a time certain, as stated in the contract, and if there is a failure during the inspection the buyer has the right to withdraw from the contract.

In Florida, or other states where termites are common, the seller can correct the problem and continue with the sale. However, it is not unusual for the buyer to use a minor issue in the inspection to withdraw from the contract for reasons that have nothing to do with the inspection, without even giving the seller the opportunity to correct the problem, because they just want out.

Buyers are human and are apt to change their minds right up to closing day. If a buyer wants to cancel a contract after the contingencies are satisfied, that may constitute a breach of contract, in which case the seller can return the deposit. Most contracts of sale allow the seller to retain the deposit as liquidated damages. However, it’s not uncommon for buyers go forward with litigation to recover their deposit. Obviously, settling this out of court will save both parties in the transaction stress and money. 

What happens if the buyer finds a defect with the property after closing? This is probably the biggest nightmare situation for everyone, including the brokers who may not have any money at risk but will offer suggestions and try to resolve the situation in an effort to salvage their own reputation.

Property defects discovered after the closing almost always go back to a lack of disclosure. Even if sellers say they know nothing about the problem, it’s difficult for buyers to believe, and it never ends well. I’ve heard of or read about just about any situation, from animals living in the attic or basement without the previous owner knowing to roots blocking the sewer line and not being discovered by an inspector.

Appliances that die the day after closing are difficult to blame the seller for unless the buyer can prove they knew about a problem before closing. It’s also important to coordinate the on and off dates for electricity, especially in the summer when mold forms quickly and refrigerators get warm even faster. I’ve heard about personal items like expensive jewelry left in the house hidden and forgotten, and guns taped under drawers when furniture was being conveyed with the sale.

For the most part, people are honest and are not intentionally trying to kill the contract, but an abundance of honesty and careful inspections can guarantee a smooth transaction. 

And don’t forget the emergency money on the top shelf of the kitchen cabinet on the day you move. That could stretch the bounds of honesty.

Castles in the Sand: A flipper is more than a pet dolphin

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

If you love dolphins, all you have to do is walk along any beach on Anna Maria Island and you’re sure to see them. But these are not the “flippers” we’re talking about today. Today, we’re talking about house flippers who may not be quite as friendly.

Call it “get rich quick” or call it “house flipping,” the goal is to buy low, invest very low sums of money to clean and renovate and sell high. If you’re lucky enough to do that consistently, you’re a flipper.

It’s certainly not impossible to become a full-time flipper. In 2024, flipping accounted for 7.6% of all single-family and condo sales nationwide. Since then, there has been a decline and flippers are faced with the same lack of inventory as conventional buyers. 

The amount of risk and uncertainty in the flipping business can range from the glory at the top to the failure at the bottom of a real estate transaction.

The worst-case scenario for a flipper is not being able to flip at a price that makes sense and ends up with a reasonable profit. Now, the poor flipper has to not sell and then rent the property, which presents an entirely different set of problems, primarily reducing any potential profit. 

The trick is to identify a home with “good bones” and bad hygiene. Trashing out and cleaning may not be glamorous, but it does the trick. Add a coat of soft gray paint and you’ll be surprised how good the white appliances look when the grime is gone.

So how do you start? Research the market and understand local trends, property values and demand. Wherever you are within the distribution of this newspaper, you’re near the water, and that should be your primary goal. Unfortunately, because of last year’s storms, there have been a lot of houses that were damaged or flooded. I would laser focus on one of those if they haven’t already been snapped up.

Securing financing is next. Traditional lenders frequently hesitate to finance investment properties. Flippers love cash or short-term financing and sellers love prequalifications.

In the flipper’s bible, if there is such a thing, you’ll see something called (ARV), which stands for After Repair Value. This is the potential market value after renovations. The rule is that you should pay no more than 70% of the ARV, minus the estimated repair costs to ensure a sufficient profit margin.

Finally, just like any seller, price competitively and market effectively, preferably working with an experienced local real estate agent.

Since you don’t need a license to be a flipper, you can start immediately. But you do need to comply with all state property sales laws. Do a thorough title search, and even though you’re experienced, you may still need the advice of an engineer or home inspector. 

After last year, anyone with ownership of a property should have insurance – even if you plan on flipping quickly. If you’re lucky enough to make a profit, you will be subject to capital gains taxes since the government doesn’t give investors any capital gains relief. Forming an LLC is not required but is recommended to protect your personal assets from lawsuits that may arise on your investment property.

In the less sophisticated days of television, there was a show called “Flipper”. Flipper became the pet of two young boys who had adventures that kids on Anna Maria Island could only imagine. Flipping houses is not nearly as charming as Flipper the dolphin, but it could be lucrative if done right.

Castles in the Sand: Critical ignoring and crystal balls

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

The best thing that has happened to the real estate vocabulary in recent years is called critical ignoring. Certainly, it’s not just applicable to real estate, but by golly it works.

Critical ignoring comes from the internet, doesn’t everything, and the artificial intelligence that drives it. Essentially, it means you should take everything you read with a grain of salt or totally ignore.

When it comes to real estate statistics reported on a national level, I prefer the ignore option. It’s not that the numbers aren’t correct; they are. It’s just that real estate is all local, and what applies in downtown Boston may have zero relevance on Anna Maria Island.

There was a report I read, right around Christmas, which was extremely broad in its reporting about condo owners facing the worst market since 2012. Across the board, rising homeowner association fees due to higher insurance premiums and maintenance costs are making condominium purchases less affordable. Single-family homes also have higher maintenance and insurance costs, don’t they? Large metro areas are suffering more with a glut of supply weighing on prices.

And good old Florida can never catch a break it seems. Insurance costs and hurricanes are totally spooking buyers, in addition to the Florida condo market taking a major hit since the Surfside collapse – ignoring the fact that Florida is a big state and Surfside is a tiny place. Actually, the laws put in place after Surfside have done a lot to improve condo living in Florida. In spite of all of this, condo owners have gained equity since they purchased. Go figure. 

Sorry, but most of this can be critically ignored. Floridians love condo living and that’s not changing anytime soon. Prices may go up, prices may go down, insurance is always an ongoing conversation, and the cost of maintenance will always increase. 

Now, to the crystal balls about this year’s housing market. The op-ed I read has predicted that mortgage rates will be somewhere between 5.75% and 6% this time next year. Declining rates and increased inventory should spark more home sales, especially if the overall economy perks up. Prices will flatten, but there will not be a significant decline in prices.

Real estate professionals will find themselves working for major companies, with the possibility of large brokerage or real estate holding companies attempting to acquire a prominent homebuilder.

And believe it or not, Netflix’s real estate programs, which I love, will help inspire some young people to consider real estate careers. Now that should not be critically ignored.

Time for the December sales statistics reported by the REALTOR Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 5.6% fewer properties this December than last December. The median sale price was $491,500, down 0.1%, and the average sale price was $653,048, down 3.3%. Median time to contract was 55 days, compared to 56 days last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.3 months, compared to four months last year. 

Condos closed 13% more properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $307,500, down 6%, and the average sale price was $352,068, down 2.7%. Median time to contract was 63 days, compared to 56 days; and the month’s supply of available properties was 6.5 months, compared to 6.9 months last year.

Let’s not critically ignore these numbers. The season is just starting and it’s not critical yet. 

Marketing for the new year

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

It’s a new year and time for new marketing ideas. You may think you’ve tried everything to sell your home, but you’ll be surprised at what you may have overlooked.

For about 25 years of my working life, I worked in some form of marketing. Selling real estate is, of course, marketing; and many of the years I worked for the Sun newspaper I was involved in advertising. But what really got my creative juices running was the years I worked with relocation companies marketing and selling their properties.

Time is money, and when relocation companies are tasked with selling a property they have taken over from one of their client’s employees, it can’t be wasted. Naturally, they are looking to the realtor to come up with the best ideas, and sometimes we did. One of my favorite marketing ideas was giving away a mink coat to the broker who came up with the buyer. This was a multi-million-dollar property in a high-end area on the north shore of Long Island – a lovely home with just one problem: the commuter train ran through the end of the property.

The relocation company at first was reluctant to spend thousands of dollars to acquire the mink, but when their representatives drove down from Connecticut to the broker open house they were impressed by the wall-to-wall brokers who attended. Needless to say, it worked. Realtors are nothing if not competitive and there was so much exposure to the property that it was inevitable.

Obviously, Anna Maria Island and our coastal communities won’t be giving away a mink coat but there are other creative beach-related prizes that will attract the attention of brokers. How about a weekend in a Gulf front home available for rent? Or a year’s worth of restaurant gift certificates at one of the Island’s jazzy restaurants? And my personal favorite: a new wardrobe of bikinis to give to your favorite toned woman.

However, now with artificial intelligence becoming such a major marketing tool, real estate is getting in on the act – and I don’t mean just staging a home or redesigning rooms. I read about a homeowner who created an AI film with a storyline specific to their property and ran it attached to their advertising and their listing. The ideas when you live on the beach are unlimited – everything from Robinson Crusoe to beach parties. 

If you want to provide a service to both brokers and open house attendees, arrange for a mortgage broker and/or an insurance broker to attend the open houses. In these confusing times of mortgage rates and new mortgage products the opinion of an experienced mortgage broker can come in very handy in a short conversation. 

Likewise, waterfront and flood zone home insurance is always a tricky thing. Insurance brokers can answer questions and clear up confusion for brokers and buyers. You’ll look like a hero and people won’t forget the house.

There are a lot of theories about empty houses not showing as well as lived in properties. Back in my day, the relocation companies came up with an idea of putting people they called “house managers” in the properties. They paid nominal rent and were expected to keep the property clean and clutter-free in return, as well as providing security. There are a lot of empty houses on Anna Maria Island that could benefit by this idea.

You don’t need to reinvent the marketing wheel. Go ahead, borrow some ideas and make them your own, I won’t care.

Castles in the Sand: Sunny-side Up

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Last week’s column was a bit of a downer. I’m not saying it wasn’t true, only that real estate sales need a sunnier pathway in order to encourage motion, so let’s see if we can let the sun shine in.

First of all, the fact that homeowners are sitting on more home equity than at any other time in history is not necessarily a bad thing. Not everyone wants to move and many Americans are just as happy to live in their current home atop a mound of equity with a low mortgage rate and wait to retire. Not exactly torture.

Second, the ultra-low interest rates we experienced five years ago gave many homeowners the opportunity of owning a home for the first time. This action could easily come back years from now as the one single thing that turned the United States housing market around.

Finally, between the years 2003 and 2008, mortgage interest rates floated between 6.5% and 5.87%, getting close to where we are now. And guess what? People bought houses every day.

After the third time this year the feds lowered interest rates, the market is finally starting to respond. As of early December, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was hovering at about 6.2%. On December 24th, Freddie Mac gave everyone a Christmas gift, lowering the fixed rate to an average of 6.18%.

There are, however, buyers out there who think they’re entitled to a 3% rate and will refuse to buy unless they get it. I would direct these buyers to Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate history and they’ll see rates as high as 16%, and we didn’t lose the real estate structure of the country.

The housing market has been stuck in low gear for some time now, however, home sales rose in November nationally for the third straight month. These three consecutive months of rising sales is the longest streak since December 2024. In addition, mortgage rates have been falling in recent months, boosting home buying activity. Buyers are taking advantage of the slight improvement in affordability and more would likely jump into the market if mortgage rates fall further.

Florida recorded 17,674 closed sales of existing single-family homes in November, up 3.4% over last year. Condo sales were also up 1.6% in the state, totaling 6,099 sales. Although it’s difficult to transfer the end of year trends into the next year’s spring buying season, the economists are not seeing anything in these sales numbers that give us a reason to be pessimistic as the year turns over.

There’s a lot of demand in Florida waiting to be unlocked as affordability improves – and improvements we do see, if at a snail’s pace. Florida remains a very attractive destination for out-of-staters and the only impediment in the last couple of years has been affordability. All of this offers some hope that the housing market nationally may finally show signs of life in 2026; and I predict Florida will be leading the way. 

If you’re a homeowner who is clinging to your 3% mortgage and come hell or high water you won’t give it up, you need a reality check: those rates aren’t coming back. Don’t sacrifice your family’s happiness and security because you’re frozen in place.

I thought I would end my first column of the new year on the light side. My friend who lives in New York City shared with me something she saw in the window of a liquor store while she was out for her afternoon stroll: “We don’t have flu shots, but we do have wine shots.” So, there it is, it doesn’t get any better than that … Happy New Year.

Mortgage rates: How did we get here?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

On Sept. 17, when the Feds lowered the benchmark rate, I thought, about time. Although the ¼ point reduction wasn’t enough to bring buyers out of the closet, it was the Feds’ promise of two more rate reductions before the end of the year that for a fleeting moment put a smile on my face, but maybe a bit too soon.

Borrowers who have been waiting for relief from high rates might have to keep waiting. Just to be clear, mortgage rates aren’t set by the Fed, so unfortunately, don’t bet on any major drops soon. For a brief moment in time, the average rate on a standard, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage drifted down to 6.26%. This was the lowest level in nearly a year, then a week later edged back up to 6.3%. Now we’re hearing that it’s not expected to change much going forward.

The Mortgage Bankers Association recently estimated that mortgage rates would actually increase to 6.5% by the end of the year – what? Why is this happening? While anxious homebuyers are watching the Fed, what they should be watching is the bond market and treasuries in particular.

The big boys on Wall Street are watch­ing the long-term bond yields, which have been drifting lower for several reasons. Among them is the expectation that the Fed will soon start cutting interest rates but also raise the risks of a recession. One big reason that home loan rates have been high in recent years is that banks have been buying fewer mortgage bonds. I don’t know about you, but my head just exploded.

Meanwhile the average homebuyer just wants to get their life moving again. This is what you get when half the country refinances to a 2-3% mortgage – housing gridlock.

There’s an interesting story I read in early September about the danger of having an ultra-low-rate mortgage, so here goes: Once upon a time, there lived a nice young couple with two adorable little girls close to the beach in Florida. Even though their life seemed like a fairy tale, it wasn’t, and they decided to divorce. Sad as this was, their story became sadder still when they realized they couldn’t sell their home and afford to live separately near their children. And this is where it got complicated.

This couple, like many others in the country, took advantage of rock bottom mortgage rates in 2020 at roughly 2%. This was, of course, a good financial plan at the time, however, now that they are divorced, they are experiencing the “lock-in effect.” Basically, homeowners staying in place and not moving because they don’t want to give up their low interest mortgage creates a complicated lifestyle for the couples and the children. This couple has decided to both live on the same property, he in what they call the “beach bungalow” and she in a 19-foot Airstream trailer in their yard. Both have access to both properties, and the children are traded back and forth. And other ex-spouses are also finding a way to keep their mortgage by leaving the kids living in the house with the parents rotating in and out.

With the interest rates still high and the shortage of homes pushing prices up, it looks like couples like these will have this fractured living arrangement for a while. It’s a sad state of affairs when the only reason you talk to your ex-spouse is because you have a 2% mortgage. How on Earth did we get here?

Finally, meaningful declining mortgage rates

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

The Federal Reserve finally graced us with a lower interest rate bone on Sept. 16 that should make everyone happy. The reason this ¼ point reduction is important is that the Federal Reserve all but promised two more rate reductions before the end of the year.

Nevertheless, there are homeowners with low-rate mortgages who are still reluctant to sell and move on as much as they may want to. A quarter point or even a half point is just not enough encouragement for them to give up a once-in-a-lifetime 3% mortgage. So, the market may continue to be locked up with prices still pushing up for those properties that come on the market, and there aren’t too many of them.

However, there are still benefits to modest lower rates, especially for a first-time borrower, enough to qualify many buyers at the lower rate to be approved for financing. Here on Anna Maria Island and all of the other coastal communities in the area, including our neighbor, Cortez, buyers in these areas are less affected by mortgage rates. Therefore, the market for high-end properties will be less influenced by mortgage rates than by the overall economy.

Many if not most high-end buyers are all cash and even if they decide on a mortgage to free up more cash, they will likely not decide on buying because of a quarter or even a half point reduction. They’re eyeing the health of the general economy and the position of the lawmakers, particularly in Congress, to business and the stock market.

Nevertheless, a healthy real estate market generally is good for all of the real estate market. There is a trickle-up effect of a robust lower-end market positively impacting all price points in the marketplace.

August may be one of the slowest real estate months of the year, but sales are made nonetheless. These are the sales statistics for August reported by the Real­tor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single family homes closed 5.7% more properties this year compared to last August. The median sale price was $467,640, down 5.3%, and the average sale price was $665,577, up 9.1%. The median time to sale was 101 days compared to 103 days last year, and the new pending sales were up 16.7%. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.6 months compared to 3.9 months compared to last year.

Condos closed 7.0% fewer properties this year compared to last year. The median sale price was $291,250, down 11.7%, and the average sale price was $354,958, with 8% fewer properties compared to last year. Median time to sale was 120 days this year compared to 139 days last year. New pending sales were 213 sales compared to 175 sales last year. The month’s supply of available properties was 6.4 months compared to 5.7 months last year.

According to the Realtor As­sociation, there is modest growth and stability in the single-family market, with the condo market down. Single family homes continue to be competi­tive, and the condo market is becom­ing more and more buyer friendly.

Will the Federal Reserve move the needle on more rates as indicated or will it just be more of the same old same old? The outcome is evolving, so stay tuned.

Signs of a real estate turnaround

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Did you hear it? Did you hear buyers and sellers, and, of course, real estate professionals slightly exhal­ing the breath they have been holding for over a year now?

There are definite signs that we might start seeing a turnaround in the real estate market, although based on the July sales statistics for Manatee County, we really don’t see it here. You could argue there is a leveling off but certainly nothing to get excited about.

Across the country, however, the National Association of Realtors is report­ing a definite uptick of the market. Sales of existing homes rose unexpectedly in July, raising hopes that the stalled housing market is improving and setting up for a busy fall. Home sales nationally were up 2% from the prior month, which is only a slight gain, but a gain nonetheless.

Manatee County is still showing a decline in the number of properties sold and a decline in the median sale price as well. The inventory of available single family homes in Manatee County in July was 4.8 months, compared to last July’s availability of 3.9 months – a substantial increase. The national median existing home price in July was $422,400, while Manatee County’s median single-family sales price was $489,900.

Mortgage rates have edged down to their lowest level of the year. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined last month to 6.58%. The hope here is that if the recent decline continues, it could set the state for a better-than-expected fall selling season.

In addition, the Federal Reserve has sent strong messages that rates could be cut. This in conjunction with inventory rising and prices dropping could open the door for first-time and marginal buyers. The Sunbelt, specifically Texas and Florida, have led the nation in the decline in prices.

Buyers are getting more leverage in making offers and choosing a property. However, first-time buyers are still not out of the woods. First-time buyers accounted for 28% of purchases in July. That was down from 30% in June and 29% in July of last year. If the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declines to 6% or below, we will finally see the first-time buyers coming back. We need first-time buyers, even first-time investors to spur the market above them.

Just for the fun of it, I read about a survey of the most expensive neighbor­hoods in the United States compiled by Zillow. Out of the top 10 most expensive neighborhoods, seven of them were in Florida and three were in California. The number one spot went to Coral Gables Estates in Coral Gables, Florida running over Beverly Hills, California. The second spot was Port Royal in Naples, Florida and the third spot was Old Cutler Bay, Florida.

And since we’re talking about Florida high-end listings, Miami’s upper end properties are trying a new tack. They are delisting their properties, not removing them from the market, but delisting, which is not the same thing. About half the sellers in this category are taking a pause until later in the year, probably around November. They believe the market will be more favorable to buyers at this time and also hopefully building a competitive edge since everyone wants something they can’t have. We’ll see if the psychology of this works, but it’s an interesting step either way.

So as we all look forward to the fall and the positive expectations we’re hearing, most of us are all just waiting to exhale.

Are we stuck in place?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

I wrote a column that came out on Aug. 20 talking about moving trends around the country focusing on Florida and Manatee County. This week I’m going to talk about how mobility around the country is stalled and the effect on the economy.

Just to be clear, moving trends are where people are moving to and are separate from how many people are actu­ally moving. As far as Florida, there is a 2% annual growth rate over the past five years. Manatee County is growing as well with a steady stream of new residents pushing into eastern Manatee buying much of the new construction.

However, as much as we may be grow­ing with incoming residents, most of the country is experiencing a slowdown in relocations. In the 1950s and 1960s, 20% of Americans would move each year. There was a slowing down after this because the population was aging and that generation tended to move less. By 2019, the year before COVID-19, 9.8% of Americans moved. In 2023, only 7.8% of Americans moved, the low­est rate since U.S. Census records began in 1948, and 2024 has held steady.

American workers have always been willing to relocate for better job opportu­nity and young college graduates have also been willing to move for the same reason. I worked in the relocation end of real estate in the early and mid-1990s for almost 10 years and it was a thriving business, with several large relocation companies offering their services to corporations. Now, however, relocation packages are less generous, and potential employees can’t afford to close that financial gap and accept a job requiring a relocation. In addition, most households need two incomes now, making relocation for one member of the household more complicated.

So, what’s happening now, why are more people stuck in place in their homes and in their careers? We all know the housing market has stalled with the exception of pockets and areas that still thrive. Because of this, homeowners are in homes that are too small for them and in jobs that aren’t providing upward mobility opportunities.

Young people just entering the work force can’t afford a home and some even struggle with rent. Existing homeowners may have a low percentage mortgage and are not willing to increase that monthly expense and move up and older generations can’t find buyers for their family homes, depriving them of a much-needed downsize.

In the not-too-distant past through the 2010s, a median-income family who bought a median-priced home spent 30% or less of their earnings on housing costs according to Redfin. That housing cost was 39% last year.

None of this is good news for the economy. Corporations need new blood and new ideas and not being able to recruit the next generation into these jobs stag­nates their business. And young employees need the experience and upward career track to move on with their lives.

Sept. 16-17 is the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. Reuters has surveyed economists who are mostly in agreement that there will be a drop in interest rates in September and another one before the end of the year. So, September is the month to watch; if it happens, the stock market will love it and so will first time-home buyers.

We definitely need something to unclog the bottleneck in the real estate market. If we can get those first-time buyers in it will gradually trickle up the real estate ladder and get the much-needed mobility the country needs.

Why aren’t we a boomtown?

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Castles in the Sand, Real estate | Development.

Looking for a boomtown? Then look in the South. Eight of the top 10 U.S. metro areas ranking as boomtowns are in the South; five are in Florida. But there’s not one in Manatee or Sarasota counties or in Tampa – how could that be?

Let’s start with how LendingTree, which determined what a boomtown is, came up with its conclusion. They grouped 100 of the largest metros across eight unique metrics grouped into three categories – people and housing, work and earnings and business and economy.

So if you live in one of the metros that has a lot of housing available but not a lot of earnings, you’ll lose points. Same with employment; if you live in a metro where the workforce is increasing or the annual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is increas­ing, you’ll get an increase in points.

Since Manatee, Sarasota and Tampa had their big surge during COVID, that is probably the reason why those metros didn’t make the top 10. We may still be ahead of the growing metros in all of the categories analyzed in numbers and dollars, but we’ve obviously leveled off.

The analysis points out that the three largest U.S. metros, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, ranked 89th, 84th and 94th respectively out of the top 100. It doesn’t mean that New York real estate is declining or that the restaurants are reducing their menu prices and no one is opening a business, it just means that those segments of the economy have leveled off and aren’t growing as fast as other smaller metros.

These are the rankings of the top 10 boomtowns around the country starting with number one: Austin, Texas; Orlando, Florida; North Port, Florida; Nashville, Tennessee; Cape Coral, Florida; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Charleston, South Carolina; Lakeland, Florida; Deltona, Florida; and Denver, Colorado.

Austin also came in number one in LendingTree’s last boomtown survey because of GDP growth and one of the highest increases in housing units. Orlando and North Port, Florida ranked second and third basically for the same increase in GDP and housing units.

On to the June sales statistics published by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:

Single-family homes closed 3.2% fewer properties compared to last June. The median sale price was $440,000, down 15.2%, and the average sale price was $583,447, down 20.8%. The median time to contract was 56 days compared to 57 days last year and new listings increased by 2.9%. The month’s supply of properties was 5.2 months compared to 4 months last year.

Condos closed 5.3% fewer properties compared to June of last year. The median sale price was $312,900, down 9.2% and the average sale price was $333,877, down 19.8%. The median time to contract was 68 days compared to 73 last year and new listings were up 5.3%. The month’s supply of available properties was 7.4 months compared to 5.8 months last year. A 6-month supply of available properties is always considered a normal market.

Interestingly, cash sales are down in both sectors 18.1% for single-family and 7.7% for condos.

I have a gut feeling that all potential buyers and sellers in Manatee County are holding their breath waiting to get on the other side of hurricane season, hopefully in one piece before any decisions are made.

So what’s the draw of the South that keeps people moving here? The top of the list is more affordable housing, lower cost of living and more job opportunities. We’re also seeing a chain reaction; the more friends and family move South, others follow. I’m bullish on the continued growth of the South and you should be too. You don’t have to live in a boomtown to know you’re better off.

Disasters may have silver lining

Written by Louise Bolger on . Posted in Business, Real estate | Development.

Last week we talked about the future restoration and look of Cortez after the storms and after the county’s purchase of the Seafood Shack property. This week we’ll cover an emerging trend in the country where communities that have been struck by a disaster are frequently rebuilding richer and more exclusive – sound familiar?

Natural disasters can be galvanizing for a community where people come together to help neighbors and share information about contractors, painters, debris removal and just about anything else. It also presents an opportunity for developers and investors to swoop in and leave their mark on the area.

Homeowners who have received government aid and insurance payouts are rebuilding sturdier homes and meeting updated building codes. In addition to adding another layer of storm protection in the rebuilt homes, homeowners also have the opportunity to remodel damaged areas. This will ultimately translate into a more valuable and marketable property.

Unfortunately, there are low-income homeowners who have more problems navigating the bureaucratic procedures to file for disaster aid and may not have personal funds to close the gap until the funds are available. Also, on Anna Maria Island, longtime residents with beachfront property handed down through families frequently did not carry homeowner’s insurance since the premiums were higher than the value of the building. Many of these cottages and older one-level homes have been sold to developers for the land value. Renters of course can get evicted or choose to move from damaged properties and are facing higher costs and a short supply of rentals.

What this means for Anna Maria Island and Cortez is a change in the profile of the communities. The slow pace of living in these communities is changing, replacing an Old Florida vibe with a jazzier vibe and new, larger homes capable of entertaining family get-togethers and weddings.

Many of these properties are owned by investors or investor groups and are designed for renting and although Anna Maria always had many properties that were available for rent, it still maintained the quality of Island life. Many islanders now fear the Island will never be the same.

A good example of how a Category 5 storm changed a community in Florida is Hurricane Michael, which hit the Pan­handle in 2018. Panama City had an older, slightly tattered downtown area which has been restored with trendy restaurants and boutiques and an increasing popula­tion. Brokers specializing in waterfront properties say wealthy buyers are arriving in growing numbers, raising the economy and value of properties considerably.

While we were talking hurricanes, which I swore I wouldn’t do, I found some interesting statistics from the FSU Florida Climate Center. Starting with the Great Mi­ami Hurricane in 1926 through Milton in 2024, there have only been three Category 5 hurricanes, nine Category 4 hurricanes and 10 Category 3 hurricanes. Don’t get too comfortable with these numbers since the one-two punch of Helene, a Category 4, and Milton, a Category 3, did an incredible amount of damage prior to making landfall compounded with a 4-foot storm surge.

Nevertheless, populations have increased in three of the most severely hit Florida communities. Andrew in Miami was a Category 5, Charley in Charlotte County was a Category 4 and Ian in Lee County was a Category 4 – all increased their populations substantially within a three-year period after the storm.

I’m standing by my prediction from last week about the value of properties in Cortez. I also believe that Anna Maria Island will enjoy an increase in property values as well. You may not like the new vibe, but you may really enjoy the increasing trends in value.