The state of Florida has lived through many stages, going back to cattle ranching and cattle drives in the early 1800s, and winter retreats for the northern wealthy. Every evolution in the lifetime of what is now the third -largest state population wise in the country has been mostly successful. So, you’ll pardon me for being skeptical with the new reporting that Florida is losing the middle class because it became too expensive.
Certainly, in Florida, it now costs a lot more to purchase homes, pay property taxes and insurance than it was when I moved here in 1997. But it’s still a lot more affordable than most of the northeastern states and California.
For example, my Manatee County property tax is less now than my Long Island, New York, property tax was when I moved 29 years ago. Much of the reason for this is Florida’s Save Our Homes Act legislation, which caps property tax increases for full-time Florida residents – a major draw to residents of other states who don’t have that benefit.
Florida’s population reached over 23.37 million by July 2024, growing faster than any other state since 2020, with an 8.24% increase. Florida still remains a high-growth state in spite of the pace slowing due to domestic migration, with Florida residents moving to other states looking for a lower cost of living.
Unfortunately, middle-class Florida residents’ wages have not kept up with the cost of living, which has increased throughout the country. However, to incoming migration residents from states like New York, New Jersey and Illinois, to name a few, the cost of living in Florida is very affordable.
In addition, Florida’s population is reducing because deaths have begun to outpace births, which is happening in many other parts of the country because of the reduced number of women having babies.
New national laws have also substantially reduced immigration. Nevertheless, despite the slowdown, Florida is still projected to add over 300,000 new residents annually through 2028 – primarily because we offer an elevated level of lifestyle with our long coastline, water access, no state income tax, full-time resident tax benefits and a continually improving education system that’s now coming in second in the country.
Parents have increasingly been in favor of smaller and hybrid school environments for their children. Recognizing this, legislation was passed and signed by the Florida governor. As of July 1, private schools enrolling 150 students or fewer will now be able to locate on properties that carry commercial and mixed-use zoning designations. This will dramatically reduce retrofit costs and timelines to open new schools down to six months from the previous two years, without costing the Florida taxpayer a penny.
The U.S. Census Bureau data is reporting the decline in domestic migration in Florida and I’m not about to argue with them. They do, however, point out that the net losses often were in lower age groups, mainly those 44 or under. There are a lot of wealthy people migrating to Florida and bringing their personal needs and business with them. Hopefully, the under-44 age group will take another look at the benefits of living in Florida down the road.
I believe Florida is taking a pause, reorganizing and getting ready for its next evolution. Don’t bet against Florida. Remember when it was called “God’s waiting room?” Tell that to the owners of the Gulf-front homes along North Shore Drive in Anna Maria. It’s more like God’s country.
