A combination of warmer ocean temperatures, forecasted weak wind shear and other factors has resulted in predictions for a higher-than-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13-19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has 70% confidence in these ranges.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm said.
Influencing factors
The season is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the west African monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.
The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the west African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “This outlook is a call to action: Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Improved hurricane analysis
NOAA will improve its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season, according to officials.
- NOAA’s model, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, will undergo an upgrade that is expected to result in another 5% improvement of tracking and intensity forecasts that will help forecasters provide more accurate watches and warnings.
- NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before the arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land, giving communities more time to prepare.
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which provides advance notice of potential tropical cyclone risks, has been extended from two weeks to three weeks, to provide additional time for preparation and response.
