Looking for a boomtown? Then look in the South. Eight of the top 10 U.S. metro areas ranking as boomtowns are in the South; five are in Florida. But there’s not one in Manatee or Sarasota counties or in Tampa – how could that be?
Let’s start with how LendingTree, which determined what a boomtown is, came up with its conclusion. They grouped 100 of the largest metros across eight unique metrics grouped into three categories – people and housing, work and earnings and business and economy.
So if you live in one of the metros that has a lot of housing available but not a lot of earnings, you’ll lose points. Same with employment; if you live in a metro where the workforce is increasing or the annual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is increasing, you’ll get an increase in points.
Since Manatee, Sarasota and Tampa had their big surge during COVID, that is probably the reason why those metros didn’t make the top 10. We may still be ahead of the growing metros in all of the categories analyzed in numbers and dollars, but we’ve obviously leveled off.
The analysis points out that the three largest U.S. metros, New York, Los Angeles and Chicago, ranked 89th, 84th and 94th respectively out of the top 100. It doesn’t mean that New York real estate is declining or that the restaurants are reducing their menu prices and no one is opening a business, it just means that those segments of the economy have leveled off and aren’t growing as fast as other smaller metros.
These are the rankings of the top 10 boomtowns around the country starting with number one: Austin, Texas; Orlando, Florida; North Port, Florida; Nashville, Tennessee; Cape Coral, Florida; Colorado Springs, Colorado; Charleston, South Carolina; Lakeland, Florida; Deltona, Florida; and Denver, Colorado.
Austin also came in number one in LendingTree’s last boomtown survey because of GDP growth and one of the highest increases in housing units. Orlando and North Port, Florida ranked second and third basically for the same increase in GDP and housing units.
On to the June sales statistics published by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee:
Single-family homes closed 3.2% fewer properties compared to last June. The median sale price was $440,000, down 15.2%, and the average sale price was $583,447, down 20.8%. The median time to contract was 56 days compared to 57 days last year and new listings increased by 2.9%. The month’s supply of properties was 5.2 months compared to 4 months last year.
Condos closed 5.3% fewer properties compared to June of last year. The median sale price was $312,900, down 9.2% and the average sale price was $333,877, down 19.8%. The median time to contract was 68 days compared to 73 last year and new listings were up 5.3%. The month’s supply of available properties was 7.4 months compared to 5.8 months last year. A 6-month supply of available properties is always considered a normal market.
Interestingly, cash sales are down in both sectors 18.1% for single-family and 7.7% for condos.
I have a gut feeling that all potential buyers and sellers in Manatee County are holding their breath waiting to get on the other side of hurricane season, hopefully in one piece before any decisions are made.
So what’s the draw of the South that keeps people moving here? The top of the list is more affordable housing, lower cost of living and more job opportunities. We’re also seeing a chain reaction; the more friends and family move South, others follow. I’m bullish on the continued growth of the South and you should be too. You don’t have to live in a boomtown to know you’re better off.
