Did you hear it? Did you hear buyers and sellers, and, of course, real estate professionals slightly exhaling the breath they have been holding for over a year now?
There are definite signs that we might start seeing a turnaround in the real estate market, although based on the July sales statistics for Manatee County, we really don’t see it here. You could argue there is a leveling off but certainly nothing to get excited about.
Across the country, however, the National Association of Realtors is reporting a definite uptick of the market. Sales of existing homes rose unexpectedly in July, raising hopes that the stalled housing market is improving and setting up for a busy fall. Home sales nationally were up 2% from the prior month, which is only a slight gain, but a gain nonetheless.
Manatee County is still showing a decline in the number of properties sold and a decline in the median sale price as well. The inventory of available single family homes in Manatee County in July was 4.8 months, compared to last July’s availability of 3.9 months – a substantial increase. The national median existing home price in July was $422,400, while Manatee County’s median single-family sales price was $489,900.
Mortgage rates have edged down to their lowest level of the year. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage declined last month to 6.58%. The hope here is that if the recent decline continues, it could set the state for a better-than-expected fall selling season.
In addition, the Federal Reserve has sent strong messages that rates could be cut. This in conjunction with inventory rising and prices dropping could open the door for first-time and marginal buyers. The Sunbelt, specifically Texas and Florida, have led the nation in the decline in prices.
Buyers are getting more leverage in making offers and choosing a property. However, first-time buyers are still not out of the woods. First-time buyers accounted for 28% of purchases in July. That was down from 30% in June and 29% in July of last year. If the 30-year fixed rate mortgage declines to 6% or below, we will finally see the first-time buyers coming back. We need first-time buyers, even first-time investors to spur the market above them.
Just for the fun of it, I read about a survey of the most expensive neighborhoods in the United States compiled by Zillow. Out of the top 10 most expensive neighborhoods, seven of them were in Florida and three were in California. The number one spot went to Coral Gables Estates in Coral Gables, Florida running over Beverly Hills, California. The second spot was Port Royal in Naples, Florida and the third spot was Old Cutler Bay, Florida.
And since we’re talking about Florida high-end listings, Miami’s upper end properties are trying a new tack. They are delisting their properties, not removing them from the market, but delisting, which is not the same thing. About half the sellers in this category are taking a pause until later in the year, probably around November. They believe the market will be more favorable to buyers at this time and also hopefully building a competitive edge since everyone wants something they can’t have. We’ll see if the psychology of this works, but it’s an interesting step either way.
So as we all look forward to the fall and the positive expectations we’re hearing, most of us are all just waiting to exhale.
