ANNA MARIA ISLAND – As residents continue to recover from 2024 Hurricanes Helene and Milton, Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers are predicting an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
In an April 3 report, CSU researchers forecast 17 named storms during the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 to Nov. 30. The researchers forecast nine named storms will become hurricanes and four will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020, slightly less active than 2024, when hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season.
The researchers cite above-average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for the predictions.
“These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation,” according to the CSU press release.
“So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report.
In 2017, Hurricane Irma inflicted significant damage on the Anna Maria City Pier and the Island-wide impacts included damaged mobile homes, residential structures and commercial structures, fallen trees, fallen power lines and flooding.
The CSU team will update its forecasts on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
