April is almost over, Easter was over two weeks ago, and your house or condo is still waiting for a viable offer. I wish I could give you an answer why our typical selling season came and went leaving properties still unsold, but I can’t; and I challenge anyone involved in real estate sales to come up with why.
If you watch the local news, real estate predictions and editorials, both in print and online, the answer is pretty much the same: interest rates. It’s easy to blame it on the interest rates, but since rates are lower than a year ago, when they were averaging 6.65%, that alone doesn’t compute.
Yes, we did have a dip in rates in February when they fell below 6%, but for the past four weeks rates rose, reaching 6.38%. It happened fast, which could have spooked buyers who were still nervous. Now, bankers are blaming the war for home purchase applications being down 5% in one week, which is not that much of a crazy idea.
The White House, in its effort to do something to get the real estate ball rolling again, is considering an idea floated by the Mortgage Bankers Association to underwrite mortgages based on a single credit report and not the typical three credit reports which has been the practice for years. This policy would only apply to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac federal taxpayer-backed loans – please tell me I didn’t hear subprime.
The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported its 12-month analysis that indicated growth for the year was down nationally by 0.9%. For the 20 cities tracked, New York City reported the highest annual gain at 4.9%, while Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.5%. In addition, for the eighth consecutive month, inflation outpaced national home price appreciation.
Let’s see what’s going on in Manatee County, using sales statistics reported by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee for the month of March: Single-family homes closed 21.9% more properties compared to last year. The median sale price was $494,205, down 2.4%. The time to contract was 51 days, up 10.9%. The month’s supply of available properties was 4.7 months, down 9.6%.
Condos closed 12% more properties compared to last year. The median sale price was $300,000, down 11.3%. The month’s supply of available properties was 7.1 months, down 13.4%.
To me, these numbers translate to a slightly better market with fewer properties, more sales and a stabilization of pricing. There are also more cash sales, typically from second home and relocation buyers, which is also a good sign. The press release from The Association of Realtors relating to both Sarasota and Manatee Counties says the market is “shifting to a more balanced and strategic market.”
Finally, there’s something afoot in Florida’s education system. It started with COVID, when families who could work remotely moved to Florida because they were anxious to get their kids back in school.
Apparently, in the last five years, Florida has improved their education system by offering school choice and improved special needs programs, as well as dividing academic time between at-home learning and taking classes at the local school.
Florida is now marketing itself as not only having great beaches and low taxes, but as also having great education opportunities. Frankly, I’m happy to hear it, but I’m also a little surprised. This can only be a benefit to the real estate market, which may finally be waking up.
