The definition of “normal” is conforming to a standard; usual, typical or expected. This statement in no way resembles the real estate market we find ourselves in, and even economists whose job it is to know these things have no real clear idea of when “normal” will resume.
Last week, we published the January Manatee County real estate sales and, of course, we had another record-breaking month for both Sarasota and Manatee counties. For the third straight month, median prices have increased month over month in the two-county region. Single-family home prices increased year over year by 36.6% to a median of $464,500 in Sarasota County and an increase of 29.7% in Manatee County to $480,000. Condos also had large increases; Sarasota’s condo median sale price was $350,000, up 15.8%, and Manatee County’s median condo sales price was $301,000, an increase of 30.3%.
In addition, according to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, the Sarasota and Manatee housing market starts off the year with the lowest level of inventory reported in January. Nevertheless, January had more new listings than closed sales in both counties. Sarasota had 811 new listings and 553 sales, and Manatee had 712 new listings and 539 sales.
It remains to be seen if this trend will continue. And, as prices and interest rates go up, there should be additional supply. Homeowners are likely watching the market carefully, trying to determine the best time to put their home on the market before the leveling off begins, if that, indeed, ever happens.
Nationally, the median existing-home sale price for January was $350,300, an increase of 15.4%. This is well below what we’re experiencing in Sarasota and Manatee counties. Generally, all over the country, the housing market continues to be booming, with an 18.8% increase for the 12 months ending in December, according to the annual S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices around the country. Phoenix had the fastest home-price growth in the country for the 31st straight month at 32.5%. Tampa posted the second-fastest growth rate at 29.4%.
First-time buyers are having a terrible time trying to compete with cash buyers and investors. The share of first-time buyers in the market fell to 27% in January from 33% a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. If we are ever to return to normal, we need those first-time buyers. They are the engine of the real estate market, buying the homes of established homeowners who either want to move up or retire. Without them, we’re stuck in a real estate fantasy land that won’t end well.
These are a lot of statistics to wrap your brain around, and we are in a kind of time warp that we know is going to end, but we just don’t know when. Ideally, there will be a slow leveling-off, but based on the beach and road activity this past month, there are many out-of-state visitors here and a good percentage of them are interested in buying property.
Normal may be in our future – but not just yet.
