Trying to time the mortgage interest market is like trying to time the stock market – it’s always a gamble. If you’ve been watching and waiting for just the right time to starting looking for a property and applying for a mortgage, your timing may be up or at least not as great as it was.

When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25 percent in December after years of not moving the rate, everyone thought, “This is it; mortgage rates are going to skyrocket.” Initially rates dipped a little, but then climbed to around 4 percent, which was the first time they’ve been above 4 percent since July. However, the prognosis is that rates will continue to go up above 4 percent for the remainder of this year.

Bankrate’s chief financial analyst indicates that the bulk of 2016 will provide interest rates in the low 4 percent range, but well below 5 percent. By the end of the year, both Bankrate’s chief financial analyst and Realtor.com’s chief economist expect the rates to be between 4.5 percent and 4.65 percent. That said, 4.65 percent is still an historically low rate and should not discourage anyone who is serious about purchasing property to move forward.

Never-the-less, a higher mortgage rate definitely has an effect on the house price you can afford. For example, a $500,000 mortgage at a 4 percent rate is $2,387 monthly but if that rate increases to 5 percent the monthly payment is $2,684 an increase of $297. This extra monthly payment could force buyers to look at properties in lower price ranges, since their ability to qualify for financing has readjusted.

Higher mortgage interest rates will also add to the predicated slower growth in real estate sales for 2016, according to Lawrence Yun the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. He says, “Following the housing market’s best year in nearly a decade, existing home sales are forecasted to expand in 2016 at a more moderate pace as pent up buyer demand combats affordability pressures and meager economic growth.”

The NRA goes on to say that this year, the housing market may only grow by 1 to 3 percent because of slower economic expansion in general on top of higher interest rates. In addition, home prices are increasing because of housing shortages in many markets, a bad combination of events for buyers.

Finally the National Association of Realtors expects total existing homes sales to finish 2015 up 6.5 percent from 2014. This is the highest since 2006, but roughly 25 percent below the prior peak set in 2005. Also, the national median existing home price for all of 2015 will be close to $221,200, up around 6 percent from 2014. For 2016, existing sales are expected to grow between 1 and 2 percent and prices between 5 and 6 percent. The bottom line is that interest rates are still advantageous, but home prices are higher and overall growth is expected to be lower. Why am I not smiling?

When the end of year Manatee County sales and price statistics come out we’ll know where 2015 ended. What happens in 2016 is still anyone’s guess, but by the middle of the summer, we should have a pretty good idea of what kind of season we had.

As far as timing, you may have missed the absolute bottom of the mortgage market, but you can still get some pretty decent rates. And as far as the stock market is concerned, in the words of Tony Soprano, “Just fohgeddaboudit.”