ANNA MARIA ISLAND – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, and although Anna Maria Island dodged direct hits from two major hurricanes in 2022 (Ian) and 2023 (Idalia), forecasters warn that 2024 could be a bigger problem.
The season began on June 1, and NOAA’s forecast for this season predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, 10% chance of near-normal and 5% chance of below normal.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have 70% confidence in these ranges.
NOAA’s forecast is very similar to AccuWeather’s recent forecast. AccuWeather’s team of expert meteorologists is warning people and businesses to start preparing for a frenzy of tropical activity that could have major impacts on the United States this hurricane season.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
DaSilva says there are four factors that indicate that this year will possibly be recordbreaking. The first problem is that ocean temperatures are very warm, and that’s basically food for hurricanes.
“Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and the Main Development Region,” DaSilva explained.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said there is high confidence that that sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin will remain well above the historical average throughout the 2024 hurricane season.
“When you look back at historical sea surface temperature in the Atlantic’s Main Development Region, recent average water temperatures jump off the chart. They are the highest observed this early in the season in the available records,” Porter said. “This is a very concerning development considering this part of the Atlantic Ocean is where more than 80% of the storms form which go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes.”
AccuWeather also blames the flipping from El Nino to La Nina weather systems for the forecast. Even though the Pacific Ocean is thousands of miles away from the Atlantic, what happens there has major impacts on severe weather in Florida; especially hurricanes.
During an El Niño pattern, waters in the eastern Pacific are warmer than the historical average. In La Niña, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are cooler than the historical average. In short, this leads to less wind shear over most of the Atlantic basin, which, when mixed with the warmer water, makes for perfect conditions for tropical development.
Other factors include weather patterns in Africa. A stronger African jet stream could jump-start the development of storms long before they make it here to the states. The strength, orientation and position of a feature known as the Bermuda-Azores high pressure area can have a major influence on the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes.
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks said. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
The Sun recently spoke to longtime Bradenton Beach resident Dave Redeker to get a resident perspective on how he prepares for hurricane season, and how concerned he is in general regarding the potentially turbulent time of year.
Sun: Do you evacuate when told to?
Redeker: I evacuate for storms Cat. 3 and up. I think anything less than that is for the tourists.
Sun: When you do evacuate, how you decide what to take and what to leave?
Redeker: Records, guns and anything laying around that’s valuable. By records, I mean insurance papers, deeds and any important papers that can’t be replaced. I grab some clothes, a little bit of food and this-and-that. Usually, you’re going somewhere where there’s going to be food, so that’s not as important.
Sun: Do you take pictures of the house and other properties before you go?
Redeker: No, I know I’m going to get screwed by the insurance company, so why bother. The wind insurers are going to say it’s flood damage and the flood insurers are going to say it’s wind damage. They’ll begrudgingly pay you a fraction of what they should.
Sun: What do you say to people who ask how you can live in a potential path of destruction, and is it worth it?
Redeker: I say that we get at least three days’ notice when a big hurricane is coming. Somebody in the Midwest only gets three minutes notice a massive tornado is about to destroy everything they own. I don’t know where you live that you don’t have something. Mudslides, wildfires and earthquakes out west, or flash floods in the mountains, nowhere is very safe, but I really like it here.
Sun: Is hurricane season being potentially worse this year a concern to you?
Redeker: Every year is going to be the worst year; we’ve been hearing it forever. All I know is that hurricanes one or two or three weeks after Labor Day are the ones you’ve got to watch. If something bad’s coming, that’s when it’s going to show up. If you’ve got to be gone because you have a hurricane phobia, be gone in August and September.
Whether or not this will be a bad hurricane season remains to be seen, but every government agency and local municipality agrees being prepared for the worst will result in the best outcome.
