The trend has been obvious for a while, east coast versus west coast with COVID-19 accelerating the movement. In fact, the March sales statistics are still showing that home prices are declining the most in the western part of the country.
Since the 1990s, the western part of the country, particularly California and Washington, enjoyed a steady run up of growth because of the technology industry. Now the areas most closely associated with the tech industry have the fastest falling home prices.
The eastern part of the country is still attracting companies, adding jobs and keeping the real estate market thriving. Florida in general, including Orlando, Miami, Tampa and other southern markets, is in the lead. However, even northern east coast areas like Connecticut are attracting families who have decided cities may not be the place to raise a family.
According to Black Knight, a research strategy company, this geographical diversity is very unusual and possibly unprecedented. Housing analysts say they have never seen anything quite like this where the division between east and west is so stark.
The National Association of Realtors reports that home sales fell across the country in March. Existing home sales decreased 2.4% in March from the prior month and 22% from a year earlier. Manatee County’s single-family properties had a 4.4% increase in sales in March compared to the previous year, the first year-over-year increase in sales since February of last year.
The market’s slowdown is starting to affect prices, which have fallen on an annual basis for two consecutive months for the first time in 11 years nationally. The national median existing home price in March was down 0.9% to $375,700. Manatee County’s median single-family home prices were also down by 6.3% to $491,988.
There is no doubt that Manatee County as a whole may be more valuable than the national market, but we are also experiencing longer times to sell and a downturn in values. However, the number of pending properties has gone up in Manatee by 7.9% compared to our surrounding areas. And the month’s supply of inventory continues to increase for both condos and single-family homes by triple digits.
The national housing market is still battling the increase in rising mortgage rates, high home prices and low inventory. In addition, a cooling economy with high inflation and the prospect of recession in the next year is keeping some buyers on the sidelines. Home prices are rising or at least stabilizing in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable with the more expensive areas of the country adjusting to lower prices.
I recently read a United States Census Bureau report on Manatee County that will make everyone understand all the traffic we’ve all been complaining about and all the irritating construction. Manatee County has increased its population by 29,420 during the past three years, not including 2023. Since 2010, the population has increased by 106,292 and, as of the end of 2022, is 429,125, over 100,000 people in 12 years. Why do I think this is just the beginning?
Is it possible that we’ve hit the bottom and the only way now is up? Maybe, we can certainly strive for that. It is certain that the market is not as competitive as it was last year and even though inventory is still historically low, it is steadily increasing.
