What’s happened in the last two years with the rise of COVID-19 has changed our culture, our housing and our geography so much that it’s hard to wrap your brain around it.
Everything we do has the cloud of the pandemic over it in small and big ways. But eventually, those changes will fade and some of the cultural changes will also start to fade. What then?
The way I view it through my real estate-soaked brain is that remote work has been the number one factor in the shifting real estate market. The fortunate people who had jobs that could be performed remotely were encouraged, and in some cases mandated, by their employers to leave the office. Many of these white-collar workers moved out of major metropolitan hubs and into small towns or small cities, increasing the population substantially. According to an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank, people migrating from high-cost, large metro areas to small cities, towns and rural areas was about 15% higher during the four quarters ending in March compared with the average for the three-year period preceding the pandemic.
All of this increase in population based on remote work also reshuffled the housing markets. Home values went up, new businesses were started, school enrollments increased and workers who said they would never leave major cities suddenly found themselves filling the bird feeders in the morning instead of waiting in line for their coffee.
We all know that Florida has been one of the major beneficiaries of this reshuffling, with real estate values increasing to unprecedented levels. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of Florida increased by over 200,000 new residents between July 2020 to July 2021 and, of course, this does not include what the increase has been since July of last year.
Unincorporated Manatee County, Bradenton and the three towns on Anna Maria Island were always considered small towns. There is no doubt that right in our own backyards we can see the benefit of remote work and how it has impacted our real estate market.
Now it’s time to look at the July Manatee County real estate statistics recorded by the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee. I’m sorry I’m a little late with this report, which came out while I was away.
The median sale price for single-family homes was $521,000, up 21.2% from last year. The average sale price was $689,490, up 21.7%. New listings were up 49.8% and closed sales were down 22.2%.
The condo median sale price was $354,500, up 41.8% from last year, and the average sale price was $409,848, up 32.3%. New listings were up 11.3% and closed sales were down 20.9%
Both single-family and condos had a median time to contract of nine days.
We’re still seeing double-digit increases in sale prices with condos jumping ahead of single-family homes. But the real story is the increase in inventory and the decrease in sales. The supply and demand ratios are shifting, so watch those sale prices eventually take a hit.
Being someone who was born and worked most of my adult life in New York City, I can’t believe that the major cities are dead. Cities offer culture and energy that is hard to find outside of that environment. They don’t, however, offer beaches, mountains or small-town life.
How long will this new lifestyle last – who knows? I can’t help thinking that eventually, you start thinking there’s more to life than filling the bird feeder.
